Brady Having Difficulty Connecting in the Red Zone to His Top Targets

[PatsFans.com Article]

Brady Having Difficulty Connecting in the Red Zone to His Top Targets

Ian Logue

Losing Julian Edelman was obviously a difficult blow to begin the season and his loss isn't the only thing having an effect on Brady's totals down inside the red zone this season.

Continue reading...

(If you enjoyed this entry - hit the Thumbs Up/If not, hit the Thumbs down in this thread)

 

[Simpelton]

Not concerned about TB12 in the slightest. If anything, this is an indictment of the line, those guys need to give Brady time and space to make those critical red zone throws.

 

[brdmaverick]

Good article, very interesting stats to review.

The article notes that Cooks only received his first red zone target this week (which is true), I just felt it worth noting that he had a (successful) two point target against the Texans. The point on low volume is still interesting.

My knee jerk reaction is to say 'well, his biggest asset (speed) is minimized with a smaller area to work with, but I think that would be a far over simplification. After all, speed guys can still create enough separation to be effective.

I have to think that the defense may be showing him more attention, because we all know Brady will go to whomever is open (and for some reason that most often seems to be Hogan). Either Hogan is really good at shaking defenses, or he is able to take advantage of the defense concentrating on the OTHER receivers.

Either way though, good stats.....thanks for putting this together.

 

[New England Pride]

Good article, very interesting stats to review.

The article notes that Cooks only received his first red zone target this week (which is true), I just felt it worth noting that he had a (successful) two point target against the Texans. The point on low volume is still interesting.

My knee jerk reaction is to say 'well, his biggest asset (speed) is minimized with a smaller area to work with, but I think that would be a far over simplification. After all, speed guys can still create enough separation to be effective.

I have to think that the defense may be showing him more attention, because we all know Brady will go to whomever is open (and for some reason that most often seems to be Hogan). Either Hogan is really good at shaking defenses, or he is able to take advantage of the defense concentrating on the OTHER receivers.

Either way though, good stats.....thanks for putting this together.

Size and physicality has alot to do with creating separation in the red area. That's why someone like Gronk is unstoppable down there. Hogan is a more effective red zone target than Cooks for that reason.

 

[Ian]

Good article, very interesting stats to review.

The article notes that Cooks only received his first red zone target this week (which is true), I just felt it worth noting that he had a (successful) two point target against the Texans. The point on low volume is still interesting.

My knee jerk reaction is to say 'well, his biggest asset (speed) is minimized with a smaller area to work with, but I think that would be a far over simplification. After all, speed guys can still create enough separation to be effective.

I have to think that the defense may be showing him more attention, because we all know Brady will go to whomever is open (and for some reason that most often seems to be Hogan). Either Hogan is really good at shaking defenses, or he is able to take advantage of the defense concentrating on the OTHER receivers.

Either way though, good stats.....thanks for putting this together.

I was surprised to see the high numbers for Mitchell and I forgot about Bennett's effectiveness too. And last year's totals only include Brady's attempts, I took Garoppolo and Brissett out of it so I could see who matched up with his red zone attempts.

And I forgot to include the 2pt conversion for Cooks, which the league doesn't credit in terms of red zone attempts. But it was surprising that we're 8 weeks in and he's only been targeted one time.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

It doesn't help when your TE2 has a reputation as a "red zone weapon" But he can't even catch a pass let alone a TD. Allen failing to grasp this offense has hurt our red zone production

 

[AvocadoIceCream]

Give him a break, he’s 40

 

[IcyPatriot]

Not worried about it.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Hollister is tall.

 

[AvocadoIceCream]

It doesn't help when your TE2 has a reputation as a "red zone weapon" But he can't even catch a pass let alone a TD. Allen failing to grasp this offense has hurt our red zone production

He’s hardly the first to struggle with it here

 

[TBR]

I was surprised to see the high numbers for Mitchell

That stood out to me as well. I hope we see him again this year, although the consensus seems to be that McClellin + Valentine will be the 2 brought back from IR.

Any type of rule that prevents a healthy player from seeing the field is a bad one.

 

[captain stone]

The GTG play-calling leaves a lot to be desired too.

I still don't see Skippy using all of our RBs to their fullest potential. That needs to be corrected when they hit the road after the bye.

 

[IcyPatriot]

As long as Brady is connecting at home - he'll be connecting here for a few more years.

 

[oldrover]

I compared this years stats to last years... and if you adjust for games played, they seem pretty similar.

Am I missing something? I'm not exactly the...

...sharpest knife in the drawer.

 

[Ian]

I compared this years stats to last years... and if you adjust for games played, they seem pretty similar.

Am I missing something? I'm not exactly the...

...sharpest knife in the drawer.

They're just having a little more difficulty scoring in the red area compared to last season. The team as a whole scored 51 touchdowns last season and Brady threw 20 touchdowns in four fewer games compared to the 10 he has right now. That could be almost a 8-10 TD difference depending on what they do this weekend. The other thing that stood out was the fact the completion percentage last season for Brady was 69% in the red zone compared to the current 58% he's at right now and the completion percentage is the lowest among his top two targets down there (Gronk, Hogan). The only thing I realized I don't have and need to add is red zone rushing, which we really need to know as that will paint a little better picture also. I'll work on that, that will be easy

Wasn't meant to be a critical article, was just pointing out some of the numbers and the players (and obviously the lack of some other players) who play into that, and it was a reminder of how effective Bennett was for them last year (and Mitchell for that matter). The ratio of FG to touchdowns is also on pace to be lower this year too compared to last season.

 

[n6249c]

....whomever is open (and for some reason that most often seems to be Hogan). Either Hogan is really good at shaking defenses, or he is able to take advantage of the defense concentrating on the OTHER receivers.

Either way though, good stats.....thanks for putting this together.

Can depend on Seven-eleven to be open.

Wonder if Hogan's lacrosse background makes him better able to resist being jammed? Or gives him better skills for getting off a jam and into an open route?

Ditto on thanks to Ian.

 

[Ian]

Just added it. Here's a look at the two, which one interesting thing that clearly changes is the average gain drops in the red area for obvious reasons. I'll have to look at Brady's six carries...those could include some kneel downs, so it's tough to look at his numbers without some context. Otherwise...the touchdown totals don't change...I'll have to come up with a way to break it down a little better - so I'm open to any suggestions there.

 

[Ian]

Brady has three red zone carries of 1,7 and 1 yard. The other three are each kneel downs for -1 yards each.

 

[brdmaverick]

I have to give @Ian props for being ahead of the curve in this concern.

Most of us were so focused on the defense that the offenses shortcomings weren't really highlighted. Their issues really came to the forefront on Sunday against the Chargers when they were consistently knocking on the door but couldn't get TDs.

 

[Ian]

I have to give @Ian props for being ahead of the curve in this concern.

Most of us were so focused on the defense that the offenses shortcomings weren't really highlighted. Their issues really came to the forefront on Sunday against the Chargers when they were consistently knocking on the door but couldn't get TDs.

I can't take credit because there were other reporters who wrote about their struggles down there. But this came from the fact I read about the overall red zone totals but I was curious about the completion percentages to the individual receivers and how it compared with last year's totals, which is what I based the entry on.

I've got another one that I'll do tonight with some numbers that people might find interesting. I'll work on it when I get home and it will go up tomorrow morning.