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Bill Belichick First to Use 2pt Conversion in NFL


I didn’t realize the 2-point conversion in the NFL was so “old”.... man time flies....
 
I thought there were some horrible decisions to go for two on Sunday.

Commentators love to bring up this chart on when to go for two as if it is some kind of work of perfection that cannot be questioned.

The problem is that the logic is flawed. That concept works under the assumption that there will be no other scoring in the game (other than perhaps the same team then scoring again). Therefore going for two when there are ten or twelve minutes to play is only useful when you are down by so much that the only way you can get back in the game is to hold your opponent scoreless the rest of the way. In other words, you have nothing to lose.

Example: Team A is up by 5. They decide to go for two in order to open up a 7-point lead (so they don't lose even if they give up a TD and XP). Problem is that with too much time left if they don't convert, their opponent can win the game with two field goals, or a TD (even without converting the XP).

Another example: Team A is up by 2. They go for 2, so the opponent cannot tie with a FG. Problem is if they don't convert, their opponent can now in with a FG.

A third example: Team A is up by 1. They go for two, so that the opponent cannot take the lead on a FG (with the thinking there is no difference between a 1-point lead and 2-point lead). They don't convert. Team A gets the ball back and goes kicks a FG. Then on the next possession their opponent scores 7 (TD/XP). Now Team A is down by 3 rather than 4; a FG by Team A only ties the score. Had they kicked the XP earlier then a FG would have won the game.
 
I thought there were some horrible decisions to go for two on Sunday.

Commentators love to bring up this chart on when to go for two as if it is some kind of work of perfection that cannot be questioned.

The problem is that the logic is flawed. That concept works under the assumption that there will be no other scoring in the game (other than perhaps the same team then scoring again). Therefore going for two when there are ten or twelve minutes to play is only useful when you are down by so much that the only way you can get back in the game is to hold your opponent scoreless the rest of the way. In other words, you have nothing to lose.

Example: Team A is up by 5. They decide to go for two in order to open up a 7-point lead (so they don't lose even if they give up a TD and XP). Problem is that with too much time left if they don't convert, their opponent can win the game with two field goals, or a TD (even without converting the XP).

Another example: Team A is up by 2. They go for 2, so the opponent cannot tie with a FG. Problem is if they don't convert, their opponent can now in with a FG.

A third example: Team A is up by 1. They go for two, so that the opponent cannot take the lead on a FG (with the thinking there is no difference between a 1-point lead and 2-point lead). They don't convert. Team A gets the ball back and goes kicks a FG. Then on the next possession their opponent scores 7 (TD/XP). Now Team A is down by 3 rather than 4; a FG by Team A only ties the score. Had they kicked the XP earlier then a FG would have won the game.

It also doesn't take any of the non-math related things into account, such as confidence in the goal lines plays you have versus the matchups you'll see on D, how the offense has looked overall on the day, flow of the game, etc. If every decision were formulaic and never had to go with any instinct or feel for the team beyond measurable metrics, the head coach wouldn't even be making those decisions. He'd just punch the situation into a calculator and let the numbers do it for him.
 
Holy crap! Is that true? Not until 1994?!?!?!? WTF!:eek:
 
Carolina in SB 38 going for 2 twice and falling cost them big time.
 
Way back in the day, in the NFL, the extra point was extremely important because it validated the 6 points. You missed you lost the 6 points. So the "extra" point or "point after" was huge.

Even earlier, the FG was the actual goal, worth 4 or 5 points at different times. The TD was worth 1 point in the beginning.

Extra point
 
I thought there were some horrible decisions to go for two on Sunday.

Commentators love to bring up this chart on when to go for two as if it is some kind of work of perfection that cannot be questioned.

The problem is that the logic is flawed. That concept works under the assumption that there will be no other scoring in the game (other than perhaps the same team then scoring again). Therefore going for two when there are ten or twelve minutes to play is only useful when you are down by so much that the only way you can get back in the game is to hold your opponent scoreless the rest of the way. In other words, you have nothing to lose.

Example: Team A is up by 5. They decide to go for two in order to open up a 7-point lead (so they don't lose even if they give up a TD and XP). Problem is that with too much time left if they don't convert, their opponent can win the game with two field goals, or a TD (even without converting the XP).

Another example: Team A is up by 2. They go for 2, so the opponent cannot tie with a FG. Problem is if they don't convert, their opponent can now in with a FG.

A third example: Team A is up by 1. They go for two, so that the opponent cannot take the lead on a FG (with the thinking there is no difference between a 1-point lead and 2-point lead). They don't convert. Team A gets the ball back and goes kicks a FG. Then on the next possession their opponent scores 7 (TD/XP). Now Team A is down by 3 rather than 4; a FG by Team A only ties the score. Had they kicked the XP earlier then a FG would have won the game.

The entire decision to go for it on 4th downs or for 2pt conversions just ends up being a question of whether you can correctly predict the number of remaining drives in a game. It is impossible to account for all of this in a standardized table the same way you cant model draft pick values in a table because each draft is differently deep.

Those charts contain just averaged out numbers that have lost all true value for a specific game.
 
I didn’t realize the 2-point conversion in the NFL was so “old”.... man time flies....

Or, my version...

MMOv7.gif


"Damn... I thought they added the 2 pt conversion, like, last year. Man, time flies."
 
Bill Belichick First to Use 2pt Conversion in NFL

BB, innovator... AND historian... first on the 2 pt... and he will probably be the LAST to use...

ezgif-4-9f5a95e292.gif






...the Dougie dropkick. :)
 
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