A Small Challenge - Fewer but Higher-Quality Draftees

[flutie2phelan]

I have a small challenge for those of you who know the draft.

This is all just an abstraction ... don't need to figure which team(s)
would be the actual counter-party in a trade. It is not real-world,
so much as it suggests what could happen in the real world.

First, using the conventional values chart ... how many total points
do the Pats have? (Ignore possible comp picks - not tradeable.)

If Belioli could convert all those points into fewer, higher-quality picks ...
what is a representative collection of the resulting draft positions?
(That is, say 1500 total value points could become Numbers 28 + 42 + 65
+ 88 ... something along those lines.)

With such a hypothetical collection of fewer, but higher picks ...
what is a short list of the Pats-type players on whom we might
reasonably use all those picks?
(The answer would be in the form of "some 4 of the following 7 guys"
or "5 of these 10 should be available at those spots when they come up".

This exercise takes mouth-watering all the way to gorging the imagination.
Wish i knew enough to start it off. But some of you do!
With gloomy CBA non-news everywhere else ...
Is this interesting enough to play?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I have a small challenge for those of you who know the draft.

This is all just an abstraction ... don't need to figure which team(s)
would be the actual counter-party in a trade. It is not real-world,
so much as it suggests what could happen in the real world.

First, using the conventional values chart ... how many total points
do the Pats have? (Ignore possible comp picks - not tradeable.)

If Belioli could convert all those points into fewer, higher-quality picks ...
what is a representative collection of the resulting draft positions?
(That is, say 1500 total value points could become Numbers 28 + 42 + 65
+ 88 ... something along those lines.)

With such a hypothetical collection of fewer, but higher picks ...
what is a short list of the Pats-type players on whom we might
reasonably use all those picks?
(The answer would be in the form of "some 4 of the following 7 guys"
or "5 of these 10 should be available at those spots when they come up".

This exercise takes mouth-watering all the way to gorging the imagination.
Wish i knew enough to start it off. But some of you do!
With gloomy CBA non-news everywhere else ...
Is this interesting enough to play?

Okay coach, you want value, but at what position? Do your part and give us the shopping list.

 

[PATSNUTme]

From my newly recieved PFW draft "primer" magazine. Did I say I just got it today?

Anyway here are 12 that they list as "Patriot type' players

S-CB Donte Whitner OSU
LB DeMeco Ryans ALA
CB Richard Marshall Fresno
LB Bobby Carpenter OSU
RB Joesph Addai LSU
WR Maurice Stovall ND
Fs Roman Harper ALA
DE Rob Ninkovich Pur
LB Kai Parham VA
WR Greg Jennings West Mich
FS Calvin Lowery PSU
WR ED Hinkel Iowa

And in their 1st round mock they have us taking Kamerion Wimbley OLB Fla St. I don't really pay much attention to mocks right now. I look at them but we have 55 days until the draft so they don't mean much.

 

[mavfan2390]

pats trade their first three picks for number nine, take michael huff (we should have some complementary in the third round, so its not THAT bad)

 

[flutie2phelan]

Okay coach, you want value, but at what position? Do your part and give us the shopping list.

All i want ... "all"! ... is something like rookBoston's (nearby) masterpiece
- but without requiring the specifics.
After you decide on the make-up of your new bundle of picks - draft order -
you have to consult the charts i assume some of you are keeping for your own purposes ...
to specify who is no longer available.

I don't want to curtail anyone's imagination by specifying positions.
We all know that our wish list runs riot across the roster.
Play your favorites! (But i wouldn't expect a QB or P to be included.)

I had considered mentioning one restriction, however.
No trading up in the first round, and only one first-rounder, total.
This would have fouled mavfan's suggestion.

The object of the exercise is to get some sense of how much quality ...
the Pats' 9-pick spread of quality-and-quantity could be converted into ...
that is, how rich a haul might this become.

Thanks.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

f2p:

I've taken a look at your project, the issue as I see it revolves around two draft theories: rook's Value Grouping or Patriot Reign's Targeted Player.

Let's assume BB wants another OT for their versatility; the three most athletic at the Combine where Darryn Colledge, Eric Winston, and Guy Whimper. GBN's most recent mock draft has them all going off the board in the 2nd round. Basing your decisions on GBN's projections:
- if you used Value Group theory, you wouldn't have to try and trade down from 21 to gain extra picks, just wait and take Whimper at 52.
- if you used targeted theory, sticking with rook's values, you target Colledge for his 32" (Combine) or 35" (Pro-Day) vertical jump, take him at 21 and don't get fancy.
- before moving on, what if you used a second value group of RT prospects? After all, BB has 5 LTs under contract now. Whitworth, Scott, Joseph, Spencer, and Toledo are all capable of playing RT or a G slot, and all could be LTs in an emergency. Is the drop off in value that great? I don't think so, you can go all the way to 58 before you had to cut bait.

LB is a popular choice this year, again using GBN:
- if you use a value group you get Greenway, Carpenter, Lawson with late first/early second grades. Here is where you start trading down in the first and try to snatch the last one in the early second.
- rook's targeted value was Greenway, GBN already has him going to NE in the first.
- but before you leave LB behind, what is the drop off between the first value group and a second with Tapp, Haralson, and Brandon Johnson whom GBN has late second/early third? I'm not so sure there is a significant drop off and you could easily wait for one of them.

CB is another popular choice:
- I'm still working on my CB board, but players who I'm looking at for Patriot skill sets include Jimmy Williams, Ashton Youboty, Richard Marshall, and Charles Gordon. Williams is a trade up so he doesn't meet your criteria, but you can wait into the third round and take Gordon (who probably has the most upside of them all).
- if you target one then take your pick of Youboty or Marshall at 21.
- there is no second layer of CBs in the GBN mock.

Finally, TE:
- you have a value group of Pope, Byrd, Fasano, Klopfenstein, and Scheffler. You can wait and get one in the 3rd round.
- targeted, I like Klopfenstein best, bundle Baltimore's 3rd with NE's 5th and 6th to entice Houston with extra picks and go get him.

The only safety I like in GBN's first day is Stanford LB Jon Alston (4.44 40 at 223, a faster Rodney, he might even be smart ), take him at 52.

The WRs I like are Stovall, take him with Baltimore's 3rd or Avant, take him with NE's 3rd.

What I see is great value without needing to move much, rook's Value Group theory makes a lot of sense in this draft. Assuming AdamJT13 has correctly guessed our 2 comp picks in the 6th round, BB will have 11 picks with two each in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and three in the 6th round to scoop up bulk talent.

You want quality over quantity, but if you use GBN's mock as your base, you could take Manny Lawson at 21 and still have your pick of Toledo, Whimper, and Spencer at 52 for O-line depth, grab CB Gordon with Baltimore's 3rd and WR Avant or RB Drew with NE's 3rd. No trades.

Or, you could take Colledge at 21 and still have your pick of Tapp, Haralson, and Brandon Johnson at 52, then grab the same third round above or use NE's 6th and Baltimore's 3rd to move up for TE Scheffler, then take your pick of Avant or Drew.

Or, you could take Colledge at 21 and Klopfenstein at 52 and still have you pick of Gocong, Anderson, Wyche, and Dumervil in the fourth. The drop off just isn't that significant - in some cases it doesn't exist (for me).

Let's assume BB wants a RB badly, he can take Addai at 21 and still get O-line depth at 52. He can bundle NE's 6th with Baltimore's 3rd and get TE Scheffler, and still take WR Avant with NE's 3rd. An all offense first day in a defense dominated draft.

This exercise needs to wait for free agency before the shopping list clarifies, for now, you can shop in just about any aisle of the grocery store and get what you need without buying generic brands.

 

[rookBoston]

Alright, I'll play.

Draft value -

#21 - 800 pts
#52 - 380
#76 - 210
#87 - 155
#104 - 86
#117 - 60
#131 - 41
#183 - 18
#214 - 6

Total: 1756 points

I'll try to avoid drafting the same players that I've been drafting (Greenway, Marshall, et. al.) in other threads... but there are just a handful of guys that I really like, so Mills and Green make the draft class, again.

#21 - LB Manny Lawson (800 pts.)
Impact edge rusher with the athleticism to play in pass coverage.

#40 - DB Donte Whitner (500)
Hard hitting S/CB tweener in the mold of Eugene Wilson, coming out as a junior.

#61 - OL Darryn Colledge (292)
Reminds me of Logan Mankins in measurables and mindset. 300#s, very mobile with oustanding agility.

#100 - FB/TE Garrett Mills (100)
Captain of the all-heart team, and the leader of his Tulsa offensive unit. If he were a few inches taller and 10# heavier, he'd be a first round lock. Could become our next Larry Izzo, captain of the STs.

#123 - S Tyrone Culver (49)
Smart, physical, hard worker... from the hands of Pat Hill at Fresno.

#190 - WR/KR Skyler Green (15)
Another iron smurf to add to the list. Under 5-10, but 192# of muscle and quickness. Runs a 4.4 with good hands and great moves in the open field.

 

[jczxohn1]

4 yr contracts

This exercise will become a focus, with shortened contacts restricting teams who "draft to develop" like the Pats in mind.

 

[flutie2phelan]

Jczx, it took me a few minutes to capture your point ... but that is an intriguing insight.

Box, your approach was different ... but nonetheless mighty informative.

Rook came closest, i think, to my intent. Also, i'm glad to have the pick sequences and trade values!

I thank you all ... and trust that replying was entertaining, if not quite challenging.

With your information and preferences ... and stuff you inspired me to look up ... i can package another reply this way:

The five DayTwo picks total 211 trade-value points. Arithmetically speaking, they "equal" pick #76, in the third round. Thus, if some team wanted all 5 picks, their 3rd-rounder might fetch 'em. That would give the Pats 5 first-day choices ... and two comps at the end of the 6th round. (No one expects any such trade to occur.)

Using GBN's popular three-round mock as a surrogate, the Patriots then could acquire:

#21 - Greenway OR Pope OR Addai OR Chad Jackson OR Carpenter OR Colledge OR Marshall

#52 - Byrd OR Toledo OR Whimper OR Spencer OR Fasano OR Klopfenstein OR Mills

##76, 77 & 87 - THREE OF Bing ... Trueblood ... Stovall ... Drew ... Avant.

I only know what a few of these youngsters do. But i selected names i know from these pages that Patsfans esteem. Pretty good haul, i'd say.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Jczx, it took me a few minutes to capture your point ... but that is an intriguing insight.

Box, your approach was different ... but nonetheless mighty informative.

Rook came closest, i think, to my intent. Also, i'm glad to have the pick sequences and trade values!

I thank you all ... and trust that replying was entertaining, if not quite challenging.

With your information and preferences ... and stuff you inspired me to look up ... i can package another reply this way:

The five DayTwo picks total 211 trade-value points. Arithmetically speaking, they "equal" pick #76, in the third round. Thus, if some team wanted all 5 picks, their 3rd-rounder might fetch 'em. That would give the Pats 5 first-day choices ... and two comps at the end of the 6th round. (No one expects any such trade to occur.)

Using GBN's popular three-round mock as a surrogate, the Patriots then could acquire:

#21 - Greenway OR Pope OR Addai OR Chad Jackson OR Carpenter OR Colledge OR Marshall

#52 - Byrd OR Toledo OR Whimper OR Spencer OR Fasano OR Klopfenstein OR Mills

##76, 77 & 87 - THREE OF Bing ... Trueblood ... Stovall ... Drew ... Avant.

I only know what a few of these youngsters do. But i selected names i know from these pages that Patsfans esteem. Pretty good haul, i'd say.

Pretty good depending on what you were trying to achieve would be my hedge. If the draft was tomorrow we would be thinking of depth at LB, depth on the O-line, a replacement for Fauria, a huge gap at WR, a young CB, and STs for starters.

1-2 LB/ST players
1-2 O-line
1 TE
2 WR
1 CB

6-8 holes to be filled with your 5 picks. By following the strategy you've outlined, we ignore the Koppens, Givens, Brady's, Green's etc. who help BB pinch pennies and win vinces. Which is why I couldn't bring myself to bet the house on first day picks, I just see too many projected 2nd day players whom I believe would help the team.

 

[flutie2phelan]

....
That would give the Pats 5 first-day choices ... and two comps at the end of the 6th round. (No one expects any such trade to occur.)
....

After posting that, i caught up on recent additions to the Trade Partner Analysis thread.
There, two days ago, rook wrote:

(Edit: forgot to mention... and if both Marshall and Whitner fall to #30, we come out of the first with Marshall, two 2nds and two 3rds... that's five Day One players and another historic draft class.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

After posting that, i caught up on recent additions to the Trade Partner Analysis thread.
There, two days ago, rook wrote:

(Edit: forgot to mention... and if both Marshall and Whitner fall to #30, we come out of the first with Marshall, two 2nds and two 3rds... that's five Day One players and another historic draft class.

You know rook is a kockeyed optimist!

 

[flutie2phelan]

Pretty good depending on what you were trying to achieve would be my hedge. If the draft was tomorrow we would be thinking of depth at LB, depth on the O-line, a replacement for Fauria, a huge gap at WR, a young CB, and STs for starters.

....
6-8 holes to be filled with your 5 picks. By following the strategy you've outlined, we ignore the Koppens, Givens, Brady's, Green's etc. who help BB pinch pennies and win vinces. Which is why I couldn't bring myself to bet the house on first day picks, I just see too many projected 2nd day players whom I believe would help the team.

Well, i begin by assuming that there will be few, if any, NEEDS left after FA ... as usual.
We'll be pursuing OPPORTUNITIES. Makes drafting easier.
We own 11 picks, 9 of which are tradeable. Surely, 11 draftees are not going to make our roster.
I am concerned that we'll resume our recent practice of stocking other teams' rosters ... with our cuts. That wastes draft picks.
So i thought i'd sniff out what would happen if the Pats decided to high-grade ... fewer but better.

I regard the personnel guys' ability to find those hidden gems you mention ... as perhaps the paramount strength of the front office
(altho' cap management and street free agent rolodexing aren't too shabby either.)
Therefore i was NOT suggesting or recommending a change of draft style.
But i did want to see what our bulging portfolio of picks might produce, if used that way.

Rook and i found separate ways to get 5 first-day picks. That is one way to go.
Another thread discussed BB's penchant for the second round. We could turn our numbers into 5 second-rounders also ... if that were desirable.
Or 6 third-rounders.
Jczxohn pointed out that the new, shorter rookie contracts tilt the scales against BB's brand of patient player development.
That is one reason why a strategy like this deserves at least to be war-gamed.

 

[flutie2phelan]

....
Rook and i found separate ways to get 5 first-day picks. That is one way to go.
Another thread discussed BB's penchant for the second round. We could turn our numbers into 5 second-rounders also ... if that were desirable.
Or 6 third-rounders.

Alternatively ... 1700+ value points buys ya the first 20 picks ...
of the fourth round.

 

[jczxohn1]

Rookie development strategy

An option which could be tried for late round picks would be shorter, 3 yr contracts. A rookie's contract may not be restructured for the first two years, under the new CBA. However, that is adequate time to see if a player looks like he could develop, under most circumstances, and contracts could be rewritten under more favorable terms than waiting til free agency when other teams would have a shot at them. Exceptions would be the situations we have been in such as Gus Scott's.Scott opted for one yr. deals, but injury has kept him from showing anything and may be his undoing with this team. A three yr deal may have been more acceptable to him to begin with, but we would still be in a position of having to make a decision without adequate data. So, he would play out his 3rd year. With only 1 yr of production, he probably wouldn't draw a lot of interest as a free agent.

Another instance would be undergrad draftees such as Hill. Three years would be decision time, or an additional two year offer after the first two, with an extension after 3, if justified.

The rub would come with sleepers like Givens, but the league has changed the structure to prevent just the sort of situation he has been in. Over- production from long-term low-end rookies will not be in the cards. (Wonder if Polian had anything to do with this?)

Cranking up the decision time is bound to cause stress with coaching staffs, but good ones, like the Pats, will make good decisions, and bad ones will make mistakes. More free agents will be available at any one time, and production will be more equitably rewarded, enhancing competition. Guys like us will have more to talk about. It's all good.

 

[rookBoston]

You know rook is a kockeyed optimist!

LOL Hey, the game rules didn't specify any restrictions on predicting how far any player will drop. There are plenty of mocks that have Marshall dropping to #52 and Whitner into the 3rd round. The fact that I'd be willing to pick either one in the first round is not part of the game.

On another front: I just read that Garrett Mills is also a Long Snapper. That clinches it for me. What more could we want in a Day Two pick?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

LOL Hey, the game rules didn't specify any restrictions on predicting how far any player will drop. There are plenty of mocks that have Marshall dropping to #52 and Whitner into the 3rd round. The fact that I'd be willing to pick either one in the first round is not part of the game.

On another front: I just read that Garrett Mills is also a Long Snapper. That clinches it for me. What more could we want in a Day Two pick?

Tom Brady?