Varying Goal Line Analytics

[Uptown]

Pretty interesting article in regards to goal line success rates via various personnel groupings.

The terrible mistake almost every NFL team makes at the goal line

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Good idea to post this separately. It might get more traction that way. I also put the article in my thread about Patriots film study, playcalls, and schemes, which you may find interesting reading if you enjoyed that article.

Patriots film study, playcalls, and scheme breakdowns

 

[primetime]

As Warren’s data shows, conventional wisdom has it backwards. It’s better to run the ball from passing formations on second-fourth downs and pass from a run formation on first. Teams that run the ball with more than one wide receiver on second, third or fourth down, score 56 percent of the time, compared to less than 50 percent for jumbo formations.

This is the problem with just taking numbers absent context. It's true that passing from a running formation on 1st down works with a high rate of success when done at the current rate, but it doesn't follow that it would work as well if it was done more often. That is, its current probability of success is probably mostly conditioned on the expectation of running.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

This is the problem with just taking numbers absent context. It's true that passing from a running formation on 1st down works with a high rate of success when done at the current rate, but it doesn't follow that it would work as well if it was done more often. That is, its current probability of success is probably mostly conditioned on the expectation of running.

Even if we grant diminishing returns with a higher rate of implementation, doesn't that ultimately benefit the offense by allowing them to run out of the same formation and thus catch the defense off guard when they cheat toward the pass? My guess is that this is also related to the Patriots willingness to invest in a 1st round running back for the first time in over a decade. I knew they valued the positional matchup, but I didn't think they valued the individual as much as the whole; nonetheless, I said all year that Michel was the best fit for our offense in all of college football. His diverse skill set will allow for either run or pass with the same personnel / formation. I think he'll be a super star here.

 

[primetime]

Even if we grant diminishing returns with a higher rate of implementation, doesn't that ultimately benefit the offense by allowing them to run out of the same formation and thus catch the defense off guard when they cheat toward the pass? My guess is that this is also related to the Patriots willingness to invest in a 1st round running back for the first time in over a decade. I knew they valued the positional matchup, but I didn't think they valued the individual as much as the whole; nonetheless, I said all year that Michel was the best fit for our offense in all of college football. His diverse skill set will allow for either run or pass with the same personnel / formation. I think he'll be a super star here.

If he's as good as Dion, he'll have been worth the pick, and he has the potential to be even better.

 

[XLIX]

I've been saying for years that on short yardage, even at the goal line, you should spread the offense out. Get those bodies out of the center of the field and run up the middle.

 

[captain stone]

...I said all year that Michel was the best fit for our offense in all of college football. His diverse skill set will allow for either run or pass with the same personnel / formation. I think he'll be a super star here.

If he's as good as Dion, he'll have been worth the pick, and he has the potential to be even better.

Whether Sony the Shiny Toy is worth the 31st overall pick is irrelevant; our pressure/coverage defense is still garbage.

 

[captain stone]

And if our goal-line/short-yardage offense is so wonderful, then what the feck happened at the end of our first 3 drives in the SB?

 

[DaBruinz]

Whether Sony the Shiny Toy is worth the 31st overall pick is irrelevant; our pressure/coverage defense is still garbage.

And you know this how? Because you have ESP?? Can you see the future? Didn't think so, Ms. Cleo.

 

[DaBruinz]

And if our goal-line/short-yardage offense is so wonderful, then what the feck happened at the end of our first 3 drives in the SB?

Gee.. The other team showed up. It happens.. Clearly it's one of the MANY things you fail to comprehend. You'd think after all this time of supposedly being a fan of the game, you'd understand this by now.

 

[primetime]

The Eagles played basically a perfect game in the Super Bowl. The Patriots almost certainly win a 7 game series. They don't play 7 games series in the NFL.

I'm not sure we should be basing future personnel decisions on preventing perfect games. It happens. It sucks. That's football.