2007 Free Agents

[Miguel]

http://www.theredzone.org/2007/freeagents/

Corrections should be sent to that site's webmaster.

 

[Pats726]

Miguel...knowing how the Patriots are..what their needs are do you see any that the Pats might go after?? Knowing how they seek value..not the best at any cost?? Just curious...Thanks...I know this is usually a WIP..as there are changes...with extensions and such..

 

[cstjohn17]

Not exactly a bumber crop...

Moves I could see the Pats making.... pick up a veteran LB or two.
ILB - EJ Henderson - Vikings, Boss Bailey - Lions (too small but has a cool name..), London Fletcher - Bills (too old? still 5 years younger than Seau), Brandon Short - Giants, Kawika Mitchell, Chiefs
OLB - Bryan Thomas - Jets, Atwan Peek -Texans, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila - Packers

Moves I hope they make.....

CB - obvious area of need, they have the cap room and even though he is having an off year Nate Clements would add a physical presence to the CB position. Even with a signing such as Clements a CB should still be taken high in the draft.
RB - Maybe someone like Duckett to replace Dillion.
S - Ken Halim (Seahawks), Tank Williams (again coll name..)

 

[Miguel]

Miguel...knowing how the Patriots are..what their needs are do you see any that the Pats might go after?? Knowing how they seek value..not the best at any cost?? Just curious...Thanks...I know this is usually a WIP..as there are changes...with extensions and such..

Two scenarios -

Patriots win the Super Bowl. Then there is no need to change their modus operandi.

Patriots do not win the Super Bowl. The Pats would then be two seasons away from winning their last Super Bowl. This year one season from their last Super Bowl the best free agents that the Patriots could attract from other teams were Reche Caldwell and Mel Mitchell. I would hope that the Patriots would then change their FA stratagem. If I were the Pats, I would go after Adalius Thomas who will turn 30 next year. I would not offer him the most money over the life of the deal but I would offer the most guaranteed (explicit and implicit) money over the 1st 3 years of the contract. If not Thomas, I back up the truck for Briggs/Hamlin.

Last year free agency started late on March 11. There were a total of 357 UFAs then. I compile the RedZone.org FA list into an Excel workbook. According to RedZone.org there will be at most 274 UFAs. There will be more money going after fewer players.
See http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/9790677
In the real world that situation leads to inflation. The Pats' MO may have to adjust.

 

[Miguel]

The Excel workbook can be downloaded at
http://www.patscap.com/2007fas.xls

 

[ATippett56]

Two scenarios -

Patriots win the Super Bowl. Then there is no need to change their modus operandi.

Patriots do not win the Super Bowl. The Pats would then be two seasons away from winning their last Super Bowl. This year one season from their last Super Bowl the best free agents that the Patriots could attract from other teams were Reche Caldwell and Mel Mitchell. I would hope that the Patriots would then change their FA stratagem. If I were the Pats, I would go after Adalius Thomas who will turn 30 next year. I would not offer him the most money over the life of the deal but I would offer the most guaranteed (explicit and implicit) money over the 1st 3 years of the contract. If not Thomas, I back up the truck for Briggs/Hamlin.

I would forget about Lance Briggs since he is looking for a deal similar to linebacker Julian Peterson of the Seattle Seahawks (7 years, $54 million). Personally, I would rather go after cornerback Nate Clements especially if Asante Samuel departs via unrestricted free agency.

 

[DaBruinz]

Two scenarios -

Patriots win the Super Bowl. Then there is no need to change their modus operandi.

Patriots do not win the Super Bowl. The Pats would then be two seasons away from winning their last Super Bowl. This year one season from their last Super Bowl the best free agents that the Patriots could attract from other teams were Reche Caldwell and Mel Mitchell. I would hope that the Patriots would then change their FA stratagem. If I were the Pats, I would go after Adalius Thomas who will turn 30 next year. I would not offer him the most money over the life of the deal but I would offer the most guaranteed (explicit and implicit) money over the 1st 3 years of the contract. If not Thomas, I back up the truck for Briggs/Hamlin.

Last year free agency started late on March 11. There were a total of 357 UFAs then. I compile the RedZone.org FA list into an Excel workbook. According to RedZone.org there will be at most 274 UFAs. There will be more money going after fewer players.
See http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/9790677
In the real world that situation leads to inflation. The Pats' MO may have to adjust.

Miguel-
I think you are making 2 assumptions here. 1) The Pats didn't adjust their modus operendi to the new market. 2) The Pats tried to go after other players than Mel Mitchell and Reche Caldwell this past season.

As to the 1st, I believe they DID adjust their modus operendi this past season in their attempt to sign Deion Branch. However, Branch insisted on being treated as if he was something special and as if he meant more to this team than Tom Brady and Richard Seymour. Both of whom played out the final year of their rookie contract, at least pay wise. Yes, they got a signing bonus in that final year for the extension they got, but they still played out the final year of that rookie contract.

As to the 2nd, there is no way to know who that Pats really went after beyond the guys that they signed. What we do know from Jonathan Kraft is that they DID make very lucrative offers to Ty Law and Deion Branch. Law signed with his buddy Hermie and Branch decided not to even attempt to negotiate so he (and we) never truly found out how much the Pats might have been willing to offer.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Another thing to consider now is playing on turf. Do we start to place
a little more emphasis on speed? I've heard bb say he likes; smart,big,tough and fast football players. Does fast move up in the pecking order? Ironically, our top 2 picks this year should help from playing on a better surface.

A couple db's and an edge pass-rusher would be a big help to this defense IMO. Would be hard to get all 3 in draft. Should have cap room to get some help. I wouldn't mind seeing extra cap room used to extend a couple of guys we already have in Ty Warren and V.Wilfork.

 

[tkayo]

There will be an insane amount of cap space spent on this weak free agent crop.

Forgetaboutit.

 

[Miguel]

As to the 1st, I believe they DID adjust their modus operendi this past season in their attempt to sign Deion Branch.

In what way did the Patriots treat Branch differently than they did other players under contract???

As to the 2nd, there is no way to know who that Pats really went after beyond the guys that they signed. What we do know from Jonathan Kraft is that they DID make very lucrative offers to Ty Law and Deion Branch. Law signed with his buddy Hermie and Branch decided not to even attempt to negotiate so he (and we) never truly found out how much the Pats might have been willing to offer.

Just curious. Did Jonathan characterize the offers as "very lucrative"?? Or are you characterizing them??

Law signed with the Chiefs because he got more guaranteed money from them. IIRC, the Patriots went after Townsend. It is true that I do not know what players that the Patriots went after. I just doubt that the only players that they went after Caldwell and Mitchell. Can I back up the presumption with facts?? No, but it is not a requirement on this board to post an opinion without supporting facts.

IMO, it has been the Patriots' practice to let the players test the market and then make a counter-offer. I expect that there will be an inflationary increase in acquiring FAs in 2007 so I think that in order to sign some players a presumptive strike by the Pats will have to be made if the Pats are two years away from winning their last Super Bowl.

Let's say that the Pats did change their MO and do not win the Super Bowl this year. Then the problem was not with how the Patriots acquire players but who the Patriots acquired. The latter is much more easily fixable so I am really hoping that I am wrong.

 

[cstjohn17]

In what way did the Patriots treat Branch differently than they did other players under contract???

Just curious. Did Jonathan characterize the offers as "very lucrative"?? Or are you characterizing them??

Law signed with the Chiefs because he got more guaranteed money from them. IIRC, the Patriots went after Townsend. It is true that I do not know what players that the Patriots went after. I just doubt that the only players that they went after Caldwell and Mitchell. Can I back up the presumption with facts?? No, but it is not a requirement on this board to post an opinion without supporting facts.

IMO, it has been the Patriots' practice to let the players test the market and then make a counter-offer. I expect that there will be an inflationary increase in acquiring FAs in 2007 so I think that in order to sign some players a presumptive strike by the Pats will have to be made if the Pats are two years away from winning their last Super Bowl.

Let's say that the Pats did change their MO and do not win the Super Bowl this year. Then the problem was not with how the Patriots acquire players but who the Patriots acquired. The latter is much more easily fixable so I am really hoping that I am wrong.

I think the Patriots and all teams will have to adjust their MO by signing more players earlier. My biggest contention with their pursuit of FAs is that second place doesn't matter when getting FAs, apparently we were in the hunt for Mason, Javon Walker, Branch, Givens, Law, etc., etc.

But who cares how close we were? either you sign FAs, specifically impact free agents or you comb the streets for guys who work for veteran minimum.

I am not saying become the next Washington Redskins but if a couple of hundred thousand or even a million is the difference between a top line player or a street free agent the Patriots should make selective decisions to "adjust" their value system. The downside of missing out on these players is the opportunity cost. Our current roster is good and pretty solid across the board, a proven playmaker at a few key positions could be the difference between a life and death struggle for the AFC East followed by a 1 and done play-off or a championship.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Last year free agency started late on March 11. There were a total of 357 UFAs then. I compile the RedZone.org FA list into an Excel workbook. According to RedZone.org there will be at most 274 UFAs. There will be more money going after fewer players.
See http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/9790677
In the real world that situation leads to inflation. The Pats' MO may have to adjust.

I would figure this formula is tempered by the fact that not all of those 357 UFA's were ever signed. I bet at least 50+ went without a contract. Of course, one would have to figure that a similar percentage of this year's 274 are not worthy of being signed so some inflation will ensue either way. But the thing that really drives inflation is a limited number of quality UFA more than the total number of UFA overall.

But I don't think it's fantasy to imagine the Pats might pony up for Briggs, Thomas, or Baker-Fletcher at LB, or someone like Micheal Lewis or Tony Parrish at safety, even with the impending inflation due to the intersecting factors of lot's of cap space meeting only a fair number of top UFA's.

 

[captain stone]

Great thread, folks. Excellent points by Miguel, et. al.

The FO needs to adjust for inflation. That loaf of bread that cost $1.00 in 2005, will cost $1.28 in 2007. It doesn't taste any better, unfortunately, but it is what it is.

On defense, the pats' most glaring needs are at CB, ILB, OLB and SS (in alphabetical order). Therefore, some of their targets should be:

CB - Nate Clements, Lenny Walls (FS). No other names really stand out, at this time. Asante Samuel will be paid, big time, by someone.

ILB - Lance Briggs, EJ Henderson, Napoleon Harris, Isaiah Kacyvenski, Danny Clark, Scott Shanle

OLB/DE - Adalius Thomas (I was hoping the pats would take him during the 5th round of the 2000 draft), KGB, Chris Kelsay, Justin Smith, Bryan Thomas

SS - Michael Lewis, Keith Adams(LB), Boss Bailey(LB), Ken Hamlin(FS?), Deon Grant(FS?), Tank Williams(if healthy)

FS - Terrance Holt

 

[oldschoold]

There was a lot going on behind the scenes with agents as well.

There is a concerted effort by some large (and not so large) agents to keep players disinterested in the Pats because of past conflicts with the Pats FO.

And there is more than one team (Mangini - Jets, Polian - Colts) that go out of their way to stick it to the Pats when they get the chance, and they work to strip players away from their top competition... and make the Pats take the bad PR in the process.