Super risky, if you see a franchise QB grab him.
If you don’t think he’s a franchise QB trade down it’s that simple.
IMO, this discussion is only relevant if we don't see the two top QB's available at 3 to be a franchise QB. Even trading to 6 leaves the possibility (likelihood?) or 4 QB's and a WR in the top 5. Say you get a wink-wink from the Giants and they pick a WR. MIN will get AZ or LAC to trade. Then, the issue is whether the other team takes a very good deal from a team wanting the 4th QB. In any case, even if we get the 4th QB at 4 or 5, Penix will still be bid for starting at 6 or 7.
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WE GIVE UP ON THE TOP FOUR AND TRADE DOWN TO 11 AND GREATLY PREFER PENIX TO NIX
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I think that we would try to move up to 7 or 8 to get Penix. At most, we could trade everything we got from MIN other than next year's first (or even give up the 1st for a 2nd back to us). So, we would get Penix and a 2025 1st (or at worst a 2nd) for our 3rd. Understand this is presuming that we don't want the two available at 3.
I do indeed think that there will be teams interested into trading up past 11 and 12 to get Penix (or Nix if that is their preference). But Penix isn't worth a trade up. OK. So? If DEN or LV were picking him at 12 or 13, I would think that they would consider trading up a couple of spots to get him. And, as media keeps saying, there is likely another team who might be able to move up with the right package.
So, the serious bidding starts after the #4 is picked, perhaps at 6 (with 4 QB's and 2 WR's taken in the first 6 picks). So, how much do the teams like Penix over Nix. There are four spots: 7, 8, 9 and 10. Maybe all four will have a player available that they consider better than any deal offered. I doubt it.
BOTTOM LINE
We are getting one or the top 6 QB's
A) a franchise QB at 3
B) the 4th QB at 4 or 5
C) Penix is we like him enough over Nix at 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10
D) Nix
ALL ARE WINNERS
We get what we think is a franchise QB or we get another QB plus at least a 2025 first