Interesting perspective on picking a QB with a high draft pick...

SlowGettingUp · Mar 30, 2024

DarrylS said:
looked at the success rate of QBs drafted in the Top-10

Sure there are busts, but at a much lower rate than QB's drafted lower.

In the first ten picks there were 16/28 starters and 7 stars - roughly 50% and 25% odds.

How about 2nd round? 5/21 starters and only a few stars (Drew Brees, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick) with Garoppolo trailing those. So maybe half the odds of getting either a starter or a star.

Second round quarterbacks this century that became long-term NFL starters

Let’s turn to modern NFL history to figure out external factors that might lead to Drew Lock becoming the Denver Broncos quarterback of the future.

www.milehighreport.com

Whether a QB succeeds depends much more on the rest of the team than say a LT or WR. So that adds to the variance here.

We need a long-term QB, and picking lower clearly reduces your odds.

40yrpatsfan · Mar 30, 2024

Williams and Daniels are going 1-2, it seems all but certain. Our choices at pick 3 are Maye, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix, so let's limit the focus to them:
- all four have question marks about their value at 3
- opinions vary about how they rank vs one another
- Penix/Nix are moving up after their pro days
- Maye seems to be falling out of favor (both Warner and Sims consider him 6th)
- McCarthy certainly isn't head and shoulders above this group
- they're all bunching together, and we should open our minds that Penix or even Nix might be the best of them
- this group of 4 is probably falling out of the 3-4 draft pick range in favor of Harrison & Nabors, but I think all 4 will go by #13.
- aside from Chi and Wash at 1-2, four teams need a QB: NE (3), Min (11), Den (12), and LV (13) (& possibly Seattle at 16)
- it's a deep draft on offense, so there's a huge incentive to add 1 or 2 more picks between the mid-1st and high 3rd

Where does that leave us? I think it all suggests TRADE DOWN. Any good offer deal moving down to any spot between 4 and 12 should be considered.

signbabybrady · Mar 30, 2024

mgteich said:
QUESTION
How much worse is it to draft a QB 6-10 compared to 2-5?

It seems that there is often a QB that is rated well above the rest and is then drafted at #1.

I'm guessing statistically throughout history probably not a big difference. But if you trust your evaluations then the difference should be obvious.

Trocadile · Mar 30, 2024

Ivan said:
When it comes to winning SB’s 5-10 has to fare pretty well, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, and Flacco were all drafted in that range, ,

Roethlisberger was 11, Flacco 18.

mgteich · Mar 30, 2024

40yrpatsfan said:
Williams and Daniels are going 1-2, it seems all but certain. Our choices at pick 3 are Maye, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix, so let's limit the focus to them:
- all four have question marks about their value at 3
- opinions vary about how they rank vs one another
- Penix/Nix are moving up after their pro days
- Maye seems to be falling out of favor (both Warner and Sims consider him 6th)
- McCarthy certainly isn't head and shoulders above this group
- they're all bunching together, and we should open our minds that Penix or even Nix might be the best of them
- this group of 4 is probably falling out of the 3-4 draft pick range in favor of Harrison & Nabors, but I think all 4 will go by #13.
- aside from Chi and Wash at 1-2, four teams need a QB: NE (3), Min (11), Den (12), and LV (13) (& possibly Seattle at 16)
- it's a deep draft on offense, so there's a huge incentive to add 1 or 2 more picks between the mid-1st and high 3rd

Where does that leave us? I think it all suggests TRADE DOWN. Any good offer deal moving down to any spot between 4 and 12 should be considered.

nice analysis

Four in a bunch and up to four teams that should want our #3 pick. If SEA doesn't trade up, all four QB-needy teams get a QB\, and all by pick 13.

So, it all about evaluation of how much better the QB on the top of your board is, compared to the other three.
==========
It seems right to trade with MIN if possible. Basically, after the trade, we would have an advantage at 11, competing with those at 12 and 13.
There could be a lot of talking with those who hold 4 through 10, but we would start with an advantage (and several picks in hand).

Stu Pidassle · Mar 30, 2024

It seems to me that one of the challenges finding QB's that can transition to the NFL is that all of the big schools follow the 49er model where they build a deep team and minimize their dependence on the QB. This factor is compounded by the fact that these are the same schools that recruit the best prospects who have the best physical tools. While that strategy allows those schools to be consistently good, it does not produce NFL ready QB's. Smaller schools don't have this luxury and depend on their QB's to carry the team when they have a good one. This leaves NFL teams with the challenge of choosing between blue chip prospects from the football factories that have not been fully tested and shining stars from smaller schools who have not faced elite competition.

Salsalife · Mar 30, 2024

Just a dam shame. Coaching in 8 Superbowl our former coach had a knack in the early days of evaluating talent. Value picks, finding under the radar free agents and getting great undrafted players. He made alot of bad ones but he kept a great scouting group i.m.o. He lasted very long in coaching because of this. This is Mayo's first rodeo. Let's hope he does his homework. Do over value, project role, watch for character.

KCSVEN · Mar 30, 2024

40yrpatsfan said:
Williams and Daniels are going 1-2, it seems all but certain. Our choices at pick 3 are Maye, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix, so let's limit the focus to them:
-

After the pro day, I've read where quite a few of those in attendance said no way Maye gets past Pats and/or Washington. He's going 2 or 3.
Williams at 1 is certain. 97% of mock drafts have him #1
Daniels at 2 is not. Only 54% of mock drafts have him #2. Washington GM rumored to be enamored with Maye.

It should easily be Wiliams, Maye and Daniels in whatever order. After that a crap shoot.

mgteich · Mar 30, 2024

KCSVEN said:
After the pro day, I've read where quite a few of those in attendance said no way Maye gets past Pats and/or Washington. He's going 2 or 3.
Williams at 1 is certain. 97% of mock drafts have him #1
Daniels at 2 is not. Only 54% of mock drafts have him #2. Washington GM rumored to be enamored with Maye.

It should easily be Wiliams, Maye and Daniels in whatever order. After that a crap shoot.

Is it really "in whatever order"?

The patriots and whoever we might trade with might have something to say about that.

If WASH really does draft Maye, then the patriots will take less than a minute to turn in Daniels as their pick.

Ditto, if WASH drafts McCarthy.
============
The only issue comes when the obvious TWO are drafted 1-2. Personally, I think that the patriots will listen to offers for a few minutes. If you are right, that won't happen. If Maye is clearly the #3 and much better than the rest, then it is a no-brainer to draft him at 3.

zimmy · Mar 30, 2024

Things that are true:

1. You need a star QB to win in the NFL
2. The bust rate on top 10 QBs is high.
3. The bust rate on QBs picked elsewhere is high
4. The best place to find a franchise QB is the top 10.

Ivan · Mar 30, 2024

lancerman said:
There's some added context to this. RG3 was a stud his first year, then he got a serious injury that derailed his career and a lot of people blame his coach for that. Winston is another weird one in that he is sort of a mixed bag but is almost the exact same player he was in college. Like he translated one to one as a player in the league, it's just without a stacked team he was never that big.

The other issue is that we are looking at top 10 picks and you have 17 stars/starters being picked over the last 12 years.

If you do that for any other round in the draft you won't get those results.

I don’t think Winston ever had the head to lead an NFL team.

Ivan · Mar 30, 2024

Trocadile said:
Roethlisberger was 11, Flacco 18.

My bad, I thought both were around 8.

FreeTedWilliams · Mar 30, 2024

DarrylS said:
From a tweet of Jacob Robinson who posted this, he is a writer from The Athletic & Morning Huddle up.
Validates why so many of us are skeptical on using our draft capital with pick #3...

Chart accompanying today's Scoop City newsletter, which looked at the success rate of QBs drafted in the Top-10.It's not a perfect measurement (see Jared Goff, Blake Bortles), but helps determine the odds of success when drafting a QB this early.
It's not a perfect measurement (see Jared Goff, Blake Bortles), but helps determine the odds of success when drafting a QB this early.

View attachment 57331

Now let's examine who these teams could have drafted instead of reaching for QBS that were busts:

2011 Pick 8: Locker, Pick 9: Tyron Smith, HOFer
2011 Pick 10: Gabbert, Pick 11 JJ Watt, HOFer
2012 Pick 8: Tannehill, Pick 9 Luke Kuechly, Pick 10 Stefon Gilmore
2014 Pick 3: Bortles, Pick 4 S. Watkins, Pick 5 K. Mack
2017 Pick 2: Trubisky, Pick 10 Mahomes (ouch)
2018 Pick 3: Darnold, Pick 4 Denzel Ward, Pick 7: Josh Allen

stephens44 · Apr 1, 2024

This team has so many holes on Offense due to Bill's inability to draft talent on that side of the ball in early rounds that drafting a QB and putting the whole franchise' hopes/stress on him is going to happen. I'd rather see them get the best LT in the draft, then the best Defensive player on the board at 34, and build from there. Address QB in next year's draft or FA after this team has had a year in another new offense. Build the O-line before throwing a rookie out there with the Franchise's future riding on his shoulders.

jdlboot14 · Apr 1, 2024

Force Zero Boomer said:
So 7 stars out of 28 picks? I like those odds, especially in a QB rich draft like this. We won't be reaching at #3.

We'll see if Wolf really knows what he's doing. If he does, the odds improve a lot, probably to better than a coin flip. Most important position in football. You've got to take the risk.

But it's 17 of 28 including those labeled "Starters" - the likes of Tannehill, Mayfield, Herbert.
If we pick either Daniels or Maye and they turn into an average of those 3 - we should be thrilled.
Because it's never only about the QB, any one of those guys has what it takes to win in the right situation.
They've all been to the playoffs with very mediocre teams.

Ivan · Apr 1, 2024

FreeTedWilliams said:
Now let's examine who these teams could have drafted instead of reaching for QBS that were busts:

2011 Pick 8: Locker, Pick 9: Tyron Smith, HOFer
2011 Pick 10: Gabbert, Pick 11 JJ Watt, HOFer
2012 Pick 8: Tannehill, Pick 9 Luke Kuechly, Pick 10 Stefon Gilmore
2014 Pick 3: Bortles, Pick 4 S. Watkins, Pick 5 K. Mack
2017 Pick 2: Trubisky, Pick 10 Mahomes (ouch)
2018 Pick 3: Darnold, Pick 4 Denzel Ward, Pick 7: Josh Allen

So you are saying their GM’s were so bad at talent evaluation they picked busts at QB, but so great at talent evaluation that they would have clearly chosen All Pro’s and Hall of Famers at any other position.

javajunky · Apr 1, 2024

40yrpatsfan said:
Williams and Daniels are going 1-2, it seems all but certain. Our choices at pick 3 are Maye, McCarthy, Penix, and Nix, so let's limit the focus to them:
- all four have question marks about their value at 3
- opinions vary about how they rank vs one another
- Penix/Nix are moving up after their pro days
- Maye seems to be falling out of favor (both Warner and Sims consider him 6th)
- McCarthy certainly isn't head and shoulders above this group
- they're all bunching together, and we should open our minds that Penix or even Nix might be the best of them
- this group of 4 is probably falling out of the 3-4 draft pick range in favor of Harrison & Nabors, but I think all 4 will go by #13.
- aside from Chi and Wash at 1-2, four teams need a QB: NE (3), Min (11), Den (12), and LV (13) (& possibly Seattle at 16)
- it's a deep draft on offense, so there's a huge incentive to add 1 or 2 more picks between the mid-1st and high 3rd

Where does that leave us? I think it all suggests TRADE DOWN. Any good offer deal moving down to any spot between 4 and 12 should be considered.

I hope Wolf and Mayo leaves the quarterback decision to Van Pelt. Our OC has a good history of predicting future QB stars and will know what he wants for our future west coast offense. I have a feeling that if Van Pelt doesn't love either Daniels or McCarthy at 3 we trade down and pick Nix in the middle of the round. Personally, I see a little Tom Brady in McCarthy so that's my pick at the moment.

Force Zero Boomer · Apr 1, 2024

jdlboot14 said:
But it's 17 of 28 including those labeled "Starters" - the likes of Tannehill, Mayfield, Herbert.
If we pick either Daniels or Maye and they turn into an average of those 3 - we should be thrilled.
Because it's never only about the QB, any one of those guys has what it takes to win in the right situation.
They've all been to the playoffs with very mediocre teams.

I'm not sure I'll be thrilled, but yeah, we should be realistic. It's unlikely we will get an elite QB. We might if Wolf is able sift through all this and make the right pick. So many stars have to align for that happen. A quality starter would be a good outcome.

Force Zero Boomer · Apr 1, 2024

stephens44 said:
This team has so many holes on Offense due to Bill's inability to draft talent on that side of the ball in early rounds that drafting a QB and putting the whole franchise' hopes/stress on him is going to happen. I'd rather see them get the best LT in the draft, then the best Defensive player on the board at 34, and build from there. Address QB in next year's draft or FA after this team has had a year in another new offense. Build the O-line before throwing a rookie out there with the Franchise's future riding on his shoulders.

They got Brissett so that our prized rookie QB won't have to start under those conditions. They'll probably carry a third QB, too.

2025 QB draft looks like slim pickings. You just can't pass on a crop of QBs with elite traits like this group. Well you can, but it's a mistake, imo.

Not sure why you'd want to pay big $ for a good QB in FA (who may not even be available, or may not be a good fit) when you have a team that probably won't go to the playoffs for another 2-3 years. Build the line starting this year, and by 2026 you'll have a good one.

aluminum seats · Apr 1, 2024

Am I the only one who sees that chart as an argument FOR drafting a QB at three?

Beyond that, the only point I would make is that a group of 30 or whatever it is is not remotely close to big enough to have any kind of statistical significance. You'd have to be talking hundreds or thousands

So all together now, for the billionth time, if their guy is there they should take him

God, draft day can't get here soon enough

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