Barring Injuries, Is a Pats-Chiefs AFCCG Inevitable?

YOUGOTMOSSED said:

Josh Allen doesn't really look ready for prime time as far as I can tell. They're not pushovers but can't see them as a legitimate threat.

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He's not quite ready but he's actually prety close. He doesn't have to be ready to explode in week 1 to be ready to be a threat.

I think Josh Allen's trajectory makes him dangerous. He's shown very steady improvement and they have some decent WRs. If he can get his dual threat mojo going, he could make a run for it this year. The Bills have been a real QB away from being dangerous for years. Now they're reasonably close to actually having one. It's worth paying attention to.

patriot1136 said:

Any chance we see Mahomes regress a little?

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In our dreams he's a once in a 100 year talent

ChrisR2223 said:

In our dreams he's a once in a 100 year talent

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yeah until TL comes along then he is the once in a 100 years talent

SBLIII said:

yeah until TL comes along then he is the once in a 100 years talent

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Lawrence looks good but hasn't proven anything in the NFL.
If you could start a NFL franchise he's the first guy you think of today.
I don't think Lawrence can throw from any platform like Mahomes can.

Mahomes left handed no look make amazing throws with one toe touching the ground style is not sustainable. I am not saying he is going to suck, he'll be a top end QB for years to come, but he won't be MVP every year....

ChrisR2223 said:

Lawrence looks good but hasn't proven anything in the NFL.
If you could start a NFL franchise he's the first guy you think of today.
I don't think Lawrence can throw from any platform like Mahomes can.

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Have you actually watched Lawrence? I'm not sure why you would doubt his ability to make throws if so.

SBLIII said:

yeah until TL comes along then he is the once in a 100 years talent

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Wait!! Wasn't Andrew luck a once in a 100 years talent?

Vegas has them both at roughly 3:1 on making it there so the odds on both about 6:1 or roughly a 16% chance making it less than likely.

Look at all the years everybody had NE vs Indy penciled in during the Manning era and yet it happened twice. 07 being the biggest one where Indy choked it up to the Chargers.

In 95 everybody had another 49ers vs Cowboys but GB shocked everybody taking out the 49ers. In 96 everybody had the Broncos making it there and the Jags of all teams took them out. In 17 ditto for Pittsburgh and the Jags took them out.

I think calling it probable isn't accurate never mind inevitable.

PlainOldEd said:

Wait!! Wasn't Andrew luck a once in a 100 years talent?

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which is my point.

SBLIII said:

Have you actually watched Lawrence? I'm not sure why you would doubt his ability to make throws if so.

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I mean Mahomes can throw with any arm movement even opposite hands time from time.

PlainOldEd said:

Wait!! Wasn't Andrew luck a once in a 100 years talent?

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It certainly wasn't lack of talent that sunk Luck. It takes more than talent to succeed at the NFL level, there's a lot to be said about landing in the right organization.

For the record -- at least until live NFL snaps are being played, the Browns have to be taken seriously. They've made a lot of moves to redeem themselves as an organization and they deserve some kind of benefit of the doubt until we can see how they worked

SBLIII said:

when was the last time AFCCG was the same in back2back years?

I'm pretty sure the AFCCG won't be KC vs NE. There are always surprises each year. Who predicted KC to make the final 4 last year? Not a single soul.

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86,87 Broncos-Browns... IIRC

SBLIII said:

which is my point.

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Right, I was backing up your point....

This doesn’t seem premature at all

A way too early ranking of the AFC (with minimal thought put into it):

1. Patriots
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Steelers
5. Browns
6. Texans
7. Titans
8. Jaguars
9. Ravens
10. Jets
11. Bills
12. Broncos
13. Raiders
14. Colts
15. Bengals
16. Dolphins

You're underrating the Bills. I'd put them ahead of the Texans and behind the Browns

Looking at it division-by-division:

AFC East: I give the Patriots a 90% chance of winning the division. As for the rest, I think the Bills and the Jets will see some serious improvement particularly on offense and maybe one of them could be a 10-6 team. Miami looks very much like a work in progress, but they will be disciplined and a tough out..their ceiling is 8 wins, IMO.

AFC North: Too tough to call. Yeah, the trendy pick is the Browns...but the Browns ain't done jack in the AFC North...and when was the last time they beat the Steelers in a game that mattered? Baltimore might be throwing rookie WR's out there...but I like their rushing offense potential...just not sure about their defense without Suggs, Mosley, and Weddle.....that's a big veteran exodus. I think we can count out Cincinnati given their OL issues, A.J. Green being out for a few, and a new coaching staff. Yup, it's between the Steelers and the Browns...and I like Big Ben & Co. a little better.

AFC South: Texans just lost Lamar Miller and still have a questionable OL...they get Fuller back which is huge, IMO. Clowney is likely to show up and play though...which helps their front 7. Then there are the Titans with Mariota who is very likeable, but needs to be more consistent/available, a stout D, good rushing offense, and an aggressive coach. Then the Colts who I thought had the most talent in the division before Luck walked away...and I like Brissett...dunno. Then there are the Jaguars who added a Superbowl winning QB to a team that was in the conference title game only 19 months ago...but man they have no receivers! Competitive division...but I have Houston here...DeShaun Watson is just about to take off, IMO (year 2 removed from ACL)...as long as the OL keeps his jersey clean though. I think this division only sends one team to the play-offs...no wild cards from this division.

AFC West: There's the Chiefs who are damn good. I thought they improved their defense a lot by swapping out Berry for Mathieu as well as Dee Ford for Frank Clark (even if it cost a lot). They also brought in a lot of new faces and the defense will be coached by Steve Spagunlo.... The Chargers are still loaded even if Gordon isn't reporting and Derwin James is out for a long while. The Raiders will only get better with AB.. and I thought the Broncos looked really good on D vs. Garopollo in pre-season week 2....I see Flacco making them a lot better on offense or at least keeping the D fresh by putting together drives. This is still Kansas City's division to lose...not sure if this division will send a wild card (think one team each from the AFCE/N will emerge).

My picks:

AFCE: Patriots
AFCN: Steelers
AFCS: Texans
AFCW: Chiefs
Wildcard: Browns
Wildcard: Chargers/Jets/Broncos/Ravens

So, the question here boils down to:

Do any of the Steelers/Texans/Browns/Chargers/Jets/Broncos/Ravens beat either the Patriots or the Chiefs ON THE ROAD in January?

Yup, it is a GOOD BET that both teams are on a collision path for January......

PIT is always theorically a contender

But if i have to add in august a possible Real surprise i go with Cleveland

But in the NFL we know nothing is sure...

After an entire year of film on Mahomes and Reid's schemes, KC will face stronger defenses. The first half of their schedule looks pretty easy, but the 2nd half gets tougher. Maybe 11-5 and miss HFA.

jmt57 said:

A way too early ranking of the AFC (with minimal thought put into it):

1. Patriots
2. Chiefs
3. Chargers
4. Steelers
5. Browns
6. Texans
7. Titans
8. Jaguars
9. Ravens
10. Jets
11. Bills
12. Broncos
13. Raiders
14. Colts
15. Bengals
16. Dolphins

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It's hard to rank teams because it depends on how you look at them. For instance you ranked the chargers 3rd, and in a macro sense that's probably correct. Does that make them the 2nd biggest threat to the Patriots? I don't think so. What comes into play is a team's ceiling vs floor. The Chargers will be pretty good but not great. They are missing that X factor to really challenge.

Here is how I rank these teams (more based on threat level).

Stuck in the basement.

16 Raiders
15 Bengals
14 Colts
13 Dolphins

Decent teams/above average upside

12 Titans - They will be exactly average. No better no worse.
11 Jaguars - Foles can get streaky and make them dangerous at times but can't sustain.
10 Jets - A better situation than JAX. Their QB hasn't proven he can't do it for 16 games.
9 Bills - In the same spot as the Jets but with a better defense.
8 Ravens - They have the coach and D. Unlike the Bills or Jets I think their QB has no chance to pan out though. Limiting their upside.

Good teams but not true contenders

7 Steelers - A good team with a good QB but so-so coaching and lacking the pieces. They have no chance to put it all together and make a real run, but will be in the mix.
6 Chargers - This team may well have a chance to make some noise and pull an upset on someone. However as I said they lack that X factor just like the Steelers do.
5 Texans - This team has the highest ceiling of these three teams but are still limited. Last years playoff game vs the Colts showed they are not ready and that is still the case.

Dark horses

4 Broncos - The Broncos are probably going to miss the playoffs. That being said if they get it together their upside can be very scary. Miller/Chubb looks legit and could make this D very scary once more. Their skill players could be very good. Sutton in particular is a forgotten man. He could make a big jump this year. Him and Emmanuel would be a good 1-2 if that happens. Their run game will be good as always and their QB situation is set up well for upside. Flacco can manage games and keep them close. Add in that home field advantage and they could surprise. People are sleeping on their upside.

3 Browns - Many people have gone over it before.

Penciled in contenders.

2 Chiefs - Nothing needs to be said.
1 Patriots - Ditto.