Chiefs defensive rankings to date

VectorPrime said:

I’m not saying it isn’t. But I already feel good about our offense and them dropping 42 on the Chiefs wouldn’t surprise me. But our D holding the Chiefs to the mid 20s would make me feel a lot better about that side of the ball. So I’d really really enjoy a 45-24 win while a 45-42 win would make me more relieved than happy.

Hell I’d prefer a 17-14 win over a 45-42 win for that reason.

Click to expand...

A win is a win us a win

@AndyJohnson to clarify my point I meant to this point in the season last year.

maineman209 said:

Kareen Hunt, Spencer Ware ...

Click to expand...

Yeah I know, we’ve seen this type of game plan before though. Their offense is loaded

TheBeers said:

@AndyJohnson to clarify my point I meant to this point in the season last year.

Click to expand...

I kinda think they are that bad. They were bad last year and talent wise they are worse this year and it’s showing on the field.
It’s a bad defense.

PScottman said:

I'm reminded of the tilt against Jacksonville. Mahomes is riding a confidence wave that is pretty damn high - early disruption of that is key to the game IMHO. When Bentley whiffed on the unblocked shot on Bortles versus Jacksonville Bortles settled into a groove and ended up having a really good game.

The Pats have to have a fast start, which I know is usually not their MO on defense especially as they look to read, react, adjust to an opponent's gameplan.

That said I don't see Reid changing the "RPO-like" attack much given the early success and easier QB decision making out of that approach. There very well could be opportunity to get an early 3 & out (like this past Th) and set a tone to reduce Mahomes' confidence level.

The KC defense MAY be even worse than the Colts...so I'm not worried about the "O".

Click to expand...

Especially with Gordon starting to pick up the O and Edelman back to open up opportunities for Gronk, and White will continue to be that outlet back no one can stop. When Gordon is full tilt, as long as Michel and the others stay healthy. this O will be basically unstoppable

You have to look at who they've played so far as well.

PPG: LAC 9th, Pitt 11th, SF 13th, Denver 25th, Pats are 10th.
YPG: Pitt 6th, LAC 8th, Denver 14th, SF 18th, Pats are 22nd.
Pass-YG: Pitt 2nd, LAC 13th, SF 18th, Denver 20th, Pats are 19th.
Rush-YG: Denver 3rd, SF 5th, LAC 7th, Pitt 28th, Pats are 6th.

They've played teams that have been for this season so far in the top half of offenses in these categories. SF will certainly drop off without JG. Denver certainly isn't great but the Pats haven't done well in Mile High historically either.

I will counter that with KC's offense probably being a bit overrated.

PPG: SF 28th, LAC 27th, Pitt 26th, Denver 17th, Pats 12th

I'm not going to go through the other categories. My main point is I think this game will be a little lower scoring than people think.

KC averages 36.3 and the Pats give up 21.6.
Pats average 26.6 KC gives up 28.8

Averaging those out KC it's 29-27. I think with the Pats offense improving and the difficulty Bill's defenses have had historically against mobile QBs it playout out in the low 30's for each team.

34-31 Pats.

TheBeers said:

Yeah I know, we’ve seen this type of game plan before though. Their offense is loaded

Click to expand...

True. But Hunt and Ware can do significant damage if they're not contained.

With the Chiefs running quite a bit of "RPO-like" play action with those two in the backfield and wunderkind Mahomes at QB, it will still be a "pick your poison" challenge for the Pats defense .... and provide a good point of comparison for this defense versus the one that the Pats had in the SB against Philly.

maineman209 said:

True. But Hunt and Ware can do significant damage if they're not contained.

With the Chiefs running quite a bit of "RPO-like" play action with those two in the backfield and wunderkind Mahomes at QB, it will still be a "pick your poison" challenge for the Pats defense .... and provide a good point of comparison for this defense versus the one that the Pats had in the SB against Philly.

Click to expand...

I agree, I think the #1 priority will be don’t let Hill burn us deep, #2 limit Kelce the best we can. Do both while trying to contain Mahomes and limit big run plays. Going to be a huge challenge for sure. D will have to be extremely disciplined, and we will still lose matchups and give up plays. As others have said, we just have to get a stop or two and hold them to FG’s. If we play them as well as Denver did we’ll be okay I think.

TheBeers said:

KC defense is bad, kinda reminds me of the Pats last year, but probably not as bad statistically.

Click to expand...

How the heck can the Pats 2017 defense be considered bad when they gave up the 3rd fewest points in the AFC and the 5th fewest in the entire NYFL?

AndyJohnson said:

The patriots were the 5th ranked defense in the nfl last year.

Click to expand...

I just responded in the same way. I simply don't get the "Pats 2017 defense was bad" argument.

Please see my response to Andy, I clarified that I was referring to this point in the season last year which I didn’t properly convey in my original comment. We are all aware how bad our D was through the first 4 games.

A buddy of mine from New York says: “the chiefs are friggen dooahhg meat I’m tellin ya”

1960Pats said:

How the heck can the Pats 2017 defense be considered bad when they gave up the 3rd fewest points in the AFC and the 5th fewest in the entire NYFL?

Click to expand...

From week-5 through the AFCCG, the Pats played against offenses that had regularly struggled to put up points no matter who they played (with the exception of the Steelers in week-15. However, the Pats defense was consistently poor against the run and often struggled against the pass as a result.

They ended up surrendering the 3rd MOST yards in the NFL last season - an extreme version of "bend-don't-break" that finally broke against Philly's RPO-based offense in the SB, just as it had against the Chiefs' RPO-based offense in week-1.

Sicilian said:

This feels like one of those traps, where everyone looks at these two offenses, and these two defenses, and says, "Dear god, this is going to be a 48-45 game!" Then it ends up being 21-17, because football is f-ing weird.

Click to expand...

I think the Pats are capable of putting up a 50-burger on them. What’s going to stop that is the fact that our defense may spend a great deal of time on the field. Same with their defense. I don’t expect Gilmore to be as piss poor against Hill as he was in Week 1 of last season, where he was clearly lost, so the Queefs are going to have to put together some 8-12 play drives to score.

Comments:

a.) Let's see what the Jaguars do in K.C. tomorrow. Last week, Denver showed that they were able to disrupt the passing game rhythm with a pass rush...but kept flushing Mahomes out of the pocket and allowed Kareem Hunt to run wild. So, I think the Jags will do more of the same, but contain the pocket better. The Jags aren't that stout vs. the run. With each passing game....we learn more and more about the KC offense...no matter what anyone does in the NFL, it takes a few games for DC's to adjust and catch on, IMO.

b.) We will have to see if Sammy Watkins is ready to go next week.

c.) Defensively, if I were Flores: Contain the pocket with our edge rushers, try to stop the run with a light box (no more than 6 guys), and play nickel/dime the entire game.

d.) Offensively, do whatever we can to keep scoring points...can't have three and outs...gotta move the ball.

e.) ST's: Kick away from Hill....and maybe use Edelman as PR again even if I don't like it...we need good field position.

Those stats are pretty ugly, but their offense usually has put up a lot of points, and a lot of the bad defensive stats are a result of teams trying to furiously come back. Defense holds on for dear life (sound familiar ?). Sounds like our 1st and 5th game this year.

maineman209 said:

From week-5 through the AFCCG, the Pats played against offenses that had regularly struggled to put up points no matter who they played (with the exception of the Steelers in week-15. However, the Pats defense was consistently poor against the run and often struggled against the pass as a result.

They ended up surrendering the 3rd MOST yards in the NFL last season - an extreme version of "bend-don't-break" that finally broke against Philly's RPO-based offense in the SB, just as it had against the Chiefs' RPO-based offense in week-1.

Click to expand...

Feel free to calculate ppg +/- opponent average for week 5-16. You’ll find similar results.

everlong said:

You have to look at who they've played so far as well.

PPG: LAC 9th, Pitt 11th, SF 13th, Denver 25th, Pats are 10th.
YPG: Pitt 6th, LAC 8th, Denver 14th, SF 18th, Pats are 22nd.
Pass-YG: Pitt 2nd, LAC 13th, SF 18th, Denver 20th, Pats are 19th.
Rush-YG: Denver 3rd, SF 5th, LAC 7th, Pitt 28th, Pats are 6th.

They've played teams that have been for this season so far in the top half of offenses in these categories. SF will certainly drop off without JG. Denver certainly isn't great but the Pats haven't done well in Mile High historically either.

I will counter that with KC's offense probably being a bit overrated.

PPG: SF 28th, LAC 27th, Pitt 26th, Denver 17th, Pats 12th

I'm not going to go through the other categories. My main point is I think this game will be a little lower scoring than people think.

KC averages 36.3 and the Pats give up 21.6.
Pats average 26.6 KC gives up 28.8

Averaging those out KC it's 29-27. I think with the Pats offense improving and the difficulty Bill's defenses have had historically against mobile QBs it playout out in the low 30's for each team.

34-31 Pats.

Click to expand...

You do realize that when you have only played 4 games your defense has a lot to go with your opponents rankings right?
Take out the huge stats those teams put up against kc and the rankings won’t look so good.
In other words teams that getvto face a horrible defense in 1/4 of their games will accumulate bigger stats than if they didn’t.

How does the KC defense rank against the last two the Pats played?
An argument can be made that both the Dolphins and Colts are slightly better defenses.
As an aside, I thought the Colts D played with a lot of guts given how outmatched they were.

AndyJohnson said:

You do realize that when you have only played 4 games your defense has a lot to go with your opponents rankings right?
Take out the huge stats those teams put up against kc and the rankings won’t look so good.
In other words teams that getvto face a horrible defense in 1/4 of their games will accumulate bigger stats than if they didn’t.

Click to expand...

I think at any point in the season who you've played influences those stats. The small sample size this early in the season is implied. My point was if you're going to use stats you have to look at who those stats came against. I think because of that KC's defense isn't as bad as the stats say and their offense isn't as good. This week having to play the Jags likely their scoring averages go down on both sides of the ball.

I also think teams with histories of trending up or down play into it. The Chargers of the 2000's being a great example. The Patriots nearly always trend better. KC has had a history of trending downward. I think the Pats are catching them in a good spot this time around. As they're figuring things out and the Chiefs are coming off two big emotional and physical games vs the Broncos and Jags.