How exactly did they whif on all but one?
McCourty is an outright homerun for a late 1st rounder. Chung was pretty much what you expect out of a 2nd rounder. Darius Butler is an NFL starter. Wilhite was about what you expect from a 4th rounder. Malcolm Williams was a 7th rounder and is on the practice squad. Thats a success. Arrington was a UDFA and is an NFL starter.
Wheatley and Wilhite are no longer on the squad. Neither are Chung and Butler. Those four are whiffs because they either were not able to contribute in the Patriots secondary or they contributed very poorly. And Butler does not have his "**** together". He was lucky enough to find a role on a squad with a pretty bad secondary and made a couple of big plays last season. McCourty is a starting safety so that's one.
That leaves Wheatley and Dowling. Wheatley was a kid with a ton of talent who kept getting hurt. The only reason he was available in the 2nd was the injury issues. They took a risk, it didn't work out. Dowling has shown flashes but keeps getting hurt. Same deal.
By definition, those picks are whiffs. If you take someone that has an injury history in college as a flyer with a high round draft pick, and that guy keeps getting hurt as a pro, you've whiffed.
Frankly, thats a pretty damn good return overall on the resources spent. It sucks that Butler had to get cut before he got his **** together, but thats got nothing to do with the draft.
No, it isn't. Those drafts that I listed, years later, are pretty widely regarded as bad drafts at DB for the team.
Pretty much everyone who covers the draft is by definition, not good enough at talent evaluation to do it professionally.
That's not true. There are plenty of pundits that have scouted or covered the draft professionally in the past. Most of those guys had Harmon going later than he actually went too.
The Patriots scouts clearly think Harmon is a lot better than Kiper does. I've got no problem with BB going with the scouts' opinions over someone like Kiper, who has probably never actually seen Harmon play.
Again, my problem isn't with Harmon in particular. It's where he went. He would have been a better value later on in the draft and, based on where the other safeties went after him vs. where they were projected, I have no reason to believe that he wouldn't have been available.
Remember, these are the same analysts who thought McCourty was just a special teams player (when he was the best CB in that draft),
I remember very few people actually saying this. The majority said that he was somewhat of a project and may only *INITIALLY* contribute on special teams, but most that I read thought he would be a starting CB in his time with the Pats.
thought that Vollmer would be a huge project and was drafted way higher than he should have been, etc.
One of the reaches that worked out...
These are the same scouts who thought Geno Smith would go as high as #6.
Initially maybe. Smith's value dropped before the draft. Some scouts still had them as a first round pick, but even they were admitting it was because some lost soul of a team could possibly trade up.
The same scouts who thought Manti Te'o was a first round pick.
Not far off.
The same analysts who thought Da'Rick Rodgers, who wasn't even drafted would be a high 3rd rounder.
This one shocked me too.
Disagreeing with them isn't a sign that you made a mistake.
I disagree with them on plenty of occasions. I do not on this one.
It matters because these are the sources by which you are basing your opinion. It should be readily apparent that draft guides have limited value as far as where players will really go, and even less as far as predicting ability. Did it matter that Chad Jackson and Brandon Merieather were selected at the appropriate draft slot?
You should also keep in mind that, while these people miss a lot more often, they're usually as accurate as one can possibly get on a crap shoot of a concept such as the draft. They're usually able to predict the first few rounds pretty well. Listing a guy like Meriweather as a point of reference would only strength my position that Belichick's past DB selections lend themselves to scrutiny, especially after a reach in the third round.
Frankly, most of Harmon's profile reads like an acceptable 3rd round selection. Multi-year starter on one of the NCAA's best pass defenses. Solid physical measurables. Excellent production. Looks like an NFL player in the one game that has been circulating. Passes the "you'd like your daughter to marry him" test with flying colors.
That's fine. Like I said, he has the range, the skill, and he's smart. I would have loved to have him in the 6th or 7th while we built up the DL with a polished pass rusher such as Okafor. But to get him in the third is a widely regarded reach. Again, I didn't see any trend in the way the other safeties went after him that suggests that another team would have reached for him. His other UDFA projected comrade went in the 6th.
That said, Bill's draft success rate clearly took a turn for the better in 2010.
It had to. That was a can't-miss draft. 2009 otherwise looked like a team on the downslope of a dynasty. The 2010 draft was EXTREMELY refreshing.
Prior to that, they missed on everything, DB, LB, TE, you name it. Using 2010 as the new baseline, things don't look nearly as poor. McCourty is an obvious hit. Ras-I is an obvious miss, though he looked like more of a player in his first two weeks of 2011 than the W-boys did at any time in their tenure here.
Aye. I noted as much in my OP.
Dennard was a clear hit, no matter what happens from here on out. And even Wilson, who you seem to think Harmon is an indictment of, clearly has NFL talent if his head can catch up. (FWIW, I think Gregory is the guy that Harmon's selection reflects on the most)
I think Harmon's selection could be an indictment on Wilson. Not that it will be. Time will tell. Also, it's too early for any of us to judge last year's selections, which is why I left them out of the OP. I only mentioned a possible indictment on Wilson as to why he was benched last season (blowing an assignment on the same play in quick succession, a mental error... the kind Belichick doesn't tolerate).
I'm not looking a 2010 on because it makes my point, I'm doing it because - again - the failure rate dropped across the board. It is certainly reasonable to think that DB would be a part of that as well, and the results seem to confirm this.
DB-wise, it's at 50% right now. McCourty is a good one. Dowling is a trending bust. IMO, we should wait another year for 2012's returns. The success rate at DB can either go way up then, or stay at 50%.
All in all, I wouldn't put much stock in Reiss' post. It fails the sniff test in countless ways.
You don't have to. I will, though. And I've detailed why I can do so. Welcome back to PatsFans, by the way. Glad to see my argumentative nature brought you out of hibernation here.
Everyone who covered the 2000 draft had brady as a 6 or 7th round pick, turns out hes the best QB of all time.
...so did the Pats. :bricks:
