Idle thoughts - pre-game

patfanken · Jan 14, 2011

Crash, welcome. I guess you must be tired just reading trash talk, cheating and whining threads at JI. I hope I can help fill your need to just talk football

Hey Ken.

I'm not sure that the Jets are in as dire straits as you suggest, Ken. With respect to the Dline, they have:

Pouha (who's 30 but doesn't have the wear and tear), Devito (the blue collar lunch pail guy) and Ellis, who probably has at least one more year left - They'll probably give him a deal at a year or two at $2 - 3 million/yr. He's still been solid - hardly spectacular, but can certainly hold the POA and somehow, always plays his best games against the Pats. If nothing else, its good to have a long term guy like that on your team who knows what its like to hate your rival.

Then, you have a whole slew of young guys. They were very big on Pitoitua (sp?) before the season - he put on weight and is just a mountain man at End. His achillies injury ended his season before it began, but he'll be back to compete. And then they have young guys who will have time to develop in Gilbert, Dixon and Taveseau. Of those guys, Dixon seems to be the one that has the best chance to develop into a contributor.

Thanks I didn't know about all those kids you mentioned and it would be foolish of me to dismiss them given what our rookies and 2nd year guys have had to do this year.

Considering the upcoming draft and how potentially stocked it is with guys who can make the conversion to 3-4 DE, its certainly an option to go that way. They will almost certainly put their attention to the defensive side of the ball in the draft. I'm not convinced that Cro will be here next year, which is OK - he's been very hot and cold, and its not like he's the greatest team player and leader. Harris will be back, IMO, which basically leaves DE/OLB as big needs.

I didn't know that DL was a strength of this draft. I was going under the assumption that the this draft was as thin in top quality players as its been in while. A thought that makes me even more happy that we have so many picks at the top of the draft.

I agree that Harris will stay, but Scott and Pace, who are now vastly under performing their contracts aren't going to suddenly get better. That also goes for Thomas, Ellis (vastly underrated), and Taylor. Lots of hole and lots of question, especially if you think Cro won't be back. What about Poole? Do they want him back?

The Offense has no real needs, player-wise. All that is really needed is for Sanchez to grow. And he's making strides, but still has a way to go. But, I'm cautiously optimistic that he will continue to improve. He doesn't need to become Manning/Brady for the Jets to succeed in the long run, but he does need to start completing passes at over 60% clip and be able to challenge the defense down the field in addition to hitting his slants.

I disagree on this one - Yes you are right that Sanchez has to continue to grow, but do you really think you will sign BOTH Holmes and Edwards. Lets say you sign one. Your WR corps is still basically 2 deep

Then there's the RB - LT has been better than I expected, but the LT you got the last half of the season is really who he is now, and like the others I mentioned he will only get worse as time goes on. Greene is solid, but still unproven as a bell cow RB, and McKnight has more questions than answers.

Of course finally we are seen a few holes in that great OL. An Achilles is going to be very hard for Woody to overcome at his age, and his productiveness was slowing down. Slauson has proven to be a mixed bag and Ducasse has been almost Gholstonesque in his first year.

No Crash your offense is a lot less settled than you think.....I think

I don't know if they can keep both Holmes and Edwards and I'm not sure if its the biggest deal if they don't. I was very Pro-Holmes until somewhat recently, but I can't keep closing my eyes to Holmes' inconsistent play and Edwards' clutchness. But, one thing I noticed, the Jets move the ball quite well with only one of them in the game and if one of them leaves, it will allow the remaining guy to become the true #1 WR - with Cotch being the clear #2. Neither of Holmes/Edwards has really been able to get into a true rhythm and Cotch has had a disappointing season, probably on account of those other guys. The Jets might be better off with a solid but unspectacular #3 WR to complement either Holmes or edwards and Cotch.

Pittsburgh let him go for a reason. They guy is a talent, not a team player. I agree, Edwards would be the better signing. But I'm surprised with your assessment on Cotch. He's been one of my favorite Jet players. His play after he pulled his groin in the Cleveland game would be right up there with Lynch's TD run as gutsiest play of the year.

But, the Jets won't be dismantled. They may not be able to keep everyone, but the core will be in tact for quite a while with a QB who got them to the AFCG and at least the Divisional Round, who will only improve.

No, not dismantled but with a lot of changes, and the loss of pure talent. You lips to god's ear on Sanchez.

patfanken · Jan 14, 2011

crasherino said:
Quick question to the guys here....just wondering what your take is as to your DL.....It has been absolutely decimated with injuries, but the one constant has been Wilfork. If you had the choice, would you rather have a healthy Wilfork and have Warren, Wright, Brace, etc. be out, or would you rather have all those other guys be healthy with Wilfork out?

Very interesting question, Crash. I'm exactly sure how to answer. If we got back a healthy Warren and Brace, and lost Vince, I think we'd be OK. The more you look at this defense, the more you see that its the system more than the player (not that having great players doesn't help)

The key IMHO, is DB quality and depth. When BB has that, then his system allows him to use the rest of the D as parts of a puzzle. It allows him to really game plan totally different looks based on who they are playing. When he doesn't have that, he is much more vanilla and conservative. I think next year he will have enough parts to do what he'd like. This year its still about getting the youngsters to be in the right place.

I think Rex uses his DL in the same manner. Look at how well the Jets have defended the run with a pretty much no name DL
[/QUOTE]

patfanken · Jan 14, 2011

sbcpats70 said:
I think Ken makes some very valid points here. My biggest "look out for" for Sunday's game is the Jets' special teams....we have to keep them from getting long returns on Punts and KO's. A stellar performance from the Jets ST's could make a lot of the other matchups irrelevant. If Octodad hadn't run back that kick to where he did in the Indy game, the Jets lose.

This is an area I shouldn't have neglected in my original post. Special teams is an obvious strength of the Jets. Clearly it was already instrumental in them winning a playoff game. This is especially troubling since KO coverage hasn't exactly been a Pats strength.

A score or a long return on special teams or a defensive score are both big equalizers in this game. Its been so long since we've had a big turnover, we've started to overlook the possibilities.

patfanken · Jan 14, 2011

crasherino said:
With Graham's mediocre leg on KOs, the Pats will probably be satisfied with any starting position for the Jets inside the 35.

Amen to that brother

The Scrizz · Jan 14, 2011

"So I see Rex designing his schemes to fool Brady and even more importantly his receivers into misreading the coverages they are running. There are combination coverages you could design that do that. For example, the Pats run motion across the formation to see if anyone follows him. If someone does, the QB will think its a good indication that its a man coverage....but it doesn't have to be."

Isn't this what every defense tries to do? I mean it's not like it's a secret that you should try to confuse the QB. And yet Brady's winning percentage is at 75% or something. It seems that it is probably easier said than done. If the Jets had a BJ Raji who can wreak havoc in the middle, I'd be a little more nervous but the Jets don't have a great pass rush and even if you confuse the look pre-snap Brady will still kill you given the time.

patfanken · Jan 14, 2011

VJCPatriot said:
I think Rex Ryan is just a blowhard who likes to hear himself talk. Par for the course for the blustery Jets who take after their coach. What counts in the end is what you do on the field, not how much yapping you do leading up to the game. The Pats understand this more than anybody. BTW did you catch Wes Welker's press conference where he talked about feet like a dozen times? HILARIOUS! ;-) If you're gonna dig, try to make it subtle like that. Now THAT is WELL DONE!

I think you are vastly underestimating him, VJ. In 2 years he not only has the wins (especially playoff wins) that should render him respect of Patriot nation, but his shtick has made the Jets finally relevant in their own market, after decades of playing 2nd fiddle to the Giants

Don't compare his talk with that of Cromartie. 2 vastly different things. Granted I don't think his style of coaching can last long term, but then again in today's NFL NO style of coaching seems to last long term.

And yes - Welkers subtle jibe was perfect. The amazing thing is that there are a lot of Jet fans who equate what Wes did with Cromartie's crassness. Amazing

All solid points. But free agency and the draft can be unpredictable. Luckily the Jets usually strike out in the draft. Like the one they passed over John Elway for a tight end. Then again they did hit a homerun with Revis. So while it is more likely that the Jets decline than improve going forward. We'll just have to wait and see. It is what it is. The Pats star is definitely pointing upwards though building upon the great drafts of 09-10.

Like most teams the Jets drafts have been a mixed bag. But recently while BB has been on a draft hot streak, Tanny is in a slump. His drafts are not nearly as good a Jet fans seem to think. Clearly Revis is a home run, but Gholston is more than just a bust. He is definitely in the running as one of the 5 worst draft picks of all time. Even Ryan Leaf had a good game or two, while UDFA Dane Fletcher's production his first year,has soared way past the former 6th pick in the entire draft production in 3

FA however is the great equalizer, and the 2011 class is going to fill a lot of holes for some teams. The question is if the Jets will have the room to fully take advantage.

The Pats offense is predicated on reads. So that is probably the Jets best chance to disrupt the Pats offense. However a bigger key will be if the Pats OL can hold up. If Brady gets the time to sit in the pocket and wait for things to open up he will tear apart the Jets defense regardless of disguises. The Jets defense has the much tougher task. They must be able to pressure Brady with 4-5 rushers at the most or the holes in coverage will be too big and Brady will pick them apart.

Brady has had time in both games, so I don't thing the OL is the issue. Just the results were different

BJGE and Woodhead will step up and have solid to huge games imo. The great thing about these guys is they don't turn the ball over. Just rewatch the KC/Ravens game to see how huge turnovers are. That's another X-factor in favor of the Pats. I can see Sanchez turning the ball over a couple of times in critical situations. Pats lead the league in INTs and TO differential btw.

I honestly don't care what the Jets think. The key to the Pats this year is their own execution. When the Pats play their A game in all three phases of the game, there is no team that they can't beat. I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Pats are well rested, one of the best prepared teams in the league in every game they play, and playing flat out dominant football.

The Patriots will win this game, so don't you worry. Let Tom Brady and BB take care of business. Enjoy the game! Go Pats!

Your lips to god's ear, VJ....and amen

patfanken · Jan 14, 2011

The Scrizz said:
" Isn't this what every defense tries to do? I mean it's not like it's a secret that you should try to confuse the QB. And yet Brady's winning percentage is at 75% or something. It seems that it is probably easier said than done. If the Jets had a BJ Raji who can wreak havoc in the middle, I'd be a little more nervous but the Jets don't have a great pass rush and even if you confuse the look pre-snap Brady will still kill you given the time.

Good point. It is easier said than done, but there is that 25% you have to deal with.

BTW: don't for get that the offense put up 24 points on a Packer D that was at relatively full strength. I think the big disparity in time of possession was due to the 2 loss possessions the Pats had because of the onside kick and the pick 6

RelocatedPatFan · Jan 14, 2011

patfanken said:
Not exactly - you have to respect RR's ability to scheme a defense. His ability in that areas aren't in doubt, and if you dismiss him for his other flaws, you do it at your own risk. Believe me BB doesn't underestimate Rex one bit.

Expect to see a lot of Jet defenders at or very near the LOS at the start of plays. As many as 9 would not surprise me. He wants to force the Pats to commit to an action as quickly as possible. Now once the ball is snapped I fully expect to see a lot of man under 2 deep, with very little blitzing. Just enough to justify the threat.

I'm sure BB is expecting the same thing. I'm not sure how he will handle it. He can go spread empty with 5 immediate threats like he's done vs Pittsburgh, or he can go with 2-3 TEs and play action pass against it, with 4 legitimate match up threats.

I probably should have put my comments into better perspective. I do expect to see alot of the Jets moving around and trying to confuse Brady/Receivers. My comments was that Rex would ahve 2 very distinct plans drawn up (probably multiple contingencies, but you can only practice so much during a a week) to counter BB once the team has made the adjustment. Usually seen as halftime adjustments, but we've seen the Patriots make these type of changes during a drive (one of the benefits of having coaches call the plays

)

SVN · Jan 14, 2011

most interesting and iam somewhat anxious about is the ability to win without forcing turnovers. Can our D stop the other team consistently if they dont turn the ball over ? One of the reasons we have won by such wide margins is because of the turnovers. Can we win without them ?

karguy85 · Jan 14, 2011

Thanks for that Patfanken. I really enjoyed your post and you echoed many sentiments I have had for a while now. I completely agree regarding the Merriman sack dance and agree even more about what a devastating loss this would be to the Jets.

I have been a Pats fan since I was little (I'm 25 now) and grew up in Boston until college. My parents still live in Boston but I live in NYC now. I don't want to think about the beating I will take by all the Jets fans friends I have if the Patriots lose this one. Because the Patriots are expected to win this one handily, its a no-lose situation for Jets fans. They get to be all bold and brazen and if the unthinkable happens it is going to incredibly hard to be a Patriots fan, especially one living in Manhattan. However, if the Jets lose, yes there will be a little trash talk going the other way, but Jets fans will just say that they didn't expect to win anyway.

I just want the game to start already. This is one area where I prefer baseball to football. If you lose, you can turn the page very quickly because a game is most likely being played the next day. However, in football its one and done and a game is only played once a week. This allows the anxiety to fester over the course of the week until the game finally starts.

PatsWickedPissah · Jan 14, 2011

Day zero Pats fan.

Losing to the perfidious classless Jets Sunday would for me be the worst Pats loss in history, eclipsing the worst of all time, the roughing the passer call vs the Raiduz back in the 70s. But the good news is that in this universe, It. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. So folks, get your panties untwisted and enjoy this unexpected blessing of a great season.

Unleash Hell!

DaBronxPats14 · Jan 14, 2011

PATSYLICIOUS said:
The one thing that sucks is we can win this game 52-0 and these clowns will still run their mouths constantly next year like it never happened. Meanwhile you know our guys aren't going to boast, it's just another win and onto our next opponent. If we lose, we're going to hear about it from everyone from every angle.

Well Said! That is my exact prediction 52-0. Great Minds Think'alike.

Ring 6 · Jan 14, 2011

patfanken said:
Not exactly - you have to respect RR's ability to scheme a defense. His ability in that areas aren't in doubt, and if you dismiss him for his other flaws, you do it at your own risk. Believe me BB doesn't underestimate Rex one bit.

Expect to see a lot of Jet defenders at or very near the LOS at the start of plays. As many as 9 would not surprise me. He wants to force the Pats to commit to an action as quickly as possible. Now once the ball is snapped I fully expect to see a lot of man under 2 deep, with very little blitzing. Just enough to justify the threat.

I'm sure BB is expecting the same thing. I'm not sure how he will handle it. He can go spread empty with 5 immediate threats like he's done vs Pittsburgh, or he can go with 2-3 TEs and play action pass against it, with 4 legitimate match up threats.

Remember that disguising what you are going to do on defense isnt a unique concept, every team tries to do it every game. Brady is not fooled often

Funktopus · Jan 14, 2011

Here's my idle thought:

I've heard this game should be closer than the last, but really what's changed? It wasn't like the game from Dec 6 was a fluke. The Pats have been pounding everybody. Where I come from we call that a trend.

On the other hand, I haven't been this confident since Super Bowl 42. :bricks:

FloridaPatsFan · Jan 14, 2011

All this nervous talk of the Patriots possible losing I find almost unbelievable.

That was a good win for the Jets last weekend....but no matter how you sugarcoat it, Sanchez was downright awful last weekend...against a defense that has been pounded by injuries and is now starting several players that would probably not even be on the Colts practice squad had they had stayed healthy.

The defense played ok....but Manning's playcalling was awful and the offense in general had a poor day.

In all likelyhood, the Jets are going to have problems scoring sunday. Not becuase our defense is THAT good, but they are a LOT better than the Colts at this point.

I'm thinking that the score is going to be in the neighborhood of Pats 33-13....

And I'm praying that the media has a field day with Rex on Monday morning for running his mouth.

JMarr · Jan 14, 2011

PatsWickedPissah said:
Day zero Pats fan.

Losing to the perfidious classless Jets Sunday would for me be the worst Pats loss in history, eclipsing the worst of all time, the roughing the passer call vs the Raiduz back in the 70s. But the good news is that in this universe, It. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. So folks, get your panties untwisted and enjoy this unexpected blessing of a great season.

Unleash Hell!

Only way the Pats lose is if they come out with the same sense of entitlement and casualness as they did in SB42, and there are some loose parallels between this game and that one:

-Playing a team that we recently humiliated in one of the most hyped RS games in history (yes the Giants game was close, but they left everything they possibly had out on the field that night and we still stuck the dagger in their heart)

-Strahan having the nerve to trash talk prior to the game ("nerve" when you consider what we had done to them 2 weeks before) Brady somewhat foolishly gets sucked in (Welker's Oscar-winning performance could have some unintended, backfiring effect as well, who knows)

-In spite of Cleveland and the nail biter vs. Green Bay, we are seen as Goliath vs. David in this game. As many have said, hopefully BB is capable of getting every last player in that lockerroom to avoid that trap. I almost wish Green Bay had beaten us now.

Keyser Söze · Jan 14, 2011

Just get an early lead Pats, Sanchez will try to force it and then the INT's will pile up.

jczxohn1 · Jan 14, 2011

As much smoke as the Jets have thrown in the air this week, IMO, you can pretty much figure they will play the same game they did against the Colts. The Pats have a better run D than the Colts and Brady has more weapons than Peyton did. On Defense, I would like to see the Marshall Faulk defense employed against Thomlinson with Cunningham shadowing him on every snap, hitting him before he can get out of the backfield as often as possible. Sanchez completed 18 passes, 12 for 1st downs against the Colts, some of the most painful to LT out of the backfield. Slants to Holmes were also effective. While Sanchez' improves on the long ball as the game goes on, forcing him to go outside early will lead to turnovers.
The amoeba defense against Tommy will be a failure, IMO. Quick hitters mixed with long counts will quickly erode the confidence in the approach. Attack and execute--they don't want you to know what they are going to do, so hit them before they are ready.

The Scrizz · Jan 14, 2011

SVN said:
most interesting and iam somewhat anxious about is the ability to win without forcing turnovers. Can our D stop the other team consistently if they dont turn the ball over ? One of the reasons we have won by such wide margins is because of the turnovers. Can we win without them ?

We can win without creating turnovers as long as were aren't dropping it all over the place at the same time. But do you really think that their qb, playing in his first game under 40 degrees, is going to be able to take care of the ball that well?

Two things to look for.

1. Pats Red Zone offense is #4. Jets are #30.

2. Nick "Queer as" Folk is terrible. The Jets are 26th in FG% while the Pats are tied for 7th, with Graham coming in at a cool 12 for 12. I wouldn't trust Folk outside of 30 yards at Gillette, he nearly choked from 32 indoors last week.

AzPatsFan · Jan 15, 2011

crasherino said:
Hey Ken.

I'm not sure that the Jets are in as dire straits as you suggest, Ken. With respect to the Dline, they have:

Pouha (who's 30 but doesn't have the wear and tear), Devito (the blue collar lunch pail guy) and Ellis, who probably has at least one more year left - They'll probably give him a deal at a year or two at $2 - 3 million/yr. He's still been solid - hardly spectacular, but can certainly hold the POA and somehow, always plays his best games against the Pats. If nothing else, its good to have a long term guy like that on your team who knows what its like to hate your rival.

Then, you have a whole slew of young guys. They were very big on Pitoitua (sp?) before the season - he put on weight and is just a mountain man at End. His achillies injury ended his season before it began, but he'll be back to compete. And then they have young guys who will have time to develop in Gilbert, Dixon and Taveseau. Of those guys, Dixon seems to be the one that has the best chance to develop into a contributor.

Considering the upcoming draft and how potentially stocked it is with guys who can make the conversion to 3-4 DE, its certainly an option to go that way. They will almost certainly put their attention to the defensive side of the ball in the draft. I'm not convinced that Cro will be here next year, which is OK - he's been very hot and cold, and its not like he's the greatest team player and leader. Harris will be back, IMO, which basically leaves DE/OLB as big needs.

The Offense has no real needs, player-wise. All that is really needed is for Sanchez to grow. And he's making strides, but still has a way to go. But, I'm cautiously optimistic that he will continue to improve. He doesn't need to become Manning/Brady for the Jets to succeed in the long run, but he does need to start completing passes at over 60% clip and be able to challenge the defense down the field in addition to hitting his slants.

I don't know if they can keep both Holmes and Edwards and I'm not sure if its the biggest deal if they don't. I was very Pro-Holmes until somewhat recently, but I can't keep closing my eyes to Holmes' inconsistent play and Edwards' clutchness. But, one thing I noticed, the Jets move the ball quite well with only one of them in the game and if one of them leaves, it will allow the remaining guy to become the true #1 WR - with Cotch being the clear #2. Neither of Holmes/Edwards has really been able to get into a true rhythm and Cotch has had a disappointing season, probably on account of those other guys. The Jets might be better off with a solid but unspectacular #3 WR to complement either Holmes or edwards and Cotch.

I won't suggest that the Jets outlook is as rosy as the Pats - the Pats young defense developing this year (in conjunction with Brady - the known quantity) makes them the team to beat going forward. But, the Jets won't be dismantled. They may not be able to keep everyone, but the core will be in tact for quite a while with a QB who got them to the AFCG and at least the Divisional Round, who will only improve.

I disagree. their offensive line is now a shambles, they had no depth before they cut Faneca. Theiri replacement Guard was a problem all year. Now Woody at RT is gone for the year and at his age and weight maybe forever. Their draft philosophy of trading their draft for one or two high picks eventually starves them of depth, to get starters. It only works as long as you have starters, and the whole concept is springing leaks.

Vernon Gholston was supposed to be the new leader of the Defensive line as Shaun Ellis grew too old. Your "two or three more years" have already happened, IMHO. Which is why they patched with Jason Taylor who went over the hill three years ago and got nothing. The D-line corps is empty, and UDFA players can augement starters, but won't help when that is all you have.

Wrecks blitzes covered for poor depth, and old age, but only until the leagues's coaches caught up to it. The evidence is that they already pretty much have done so, over the second half of this season. Even Daddy's 46 only lasted for one and a half seasons, until the "da Beahs" were not the Monsters of the Midway anymore.

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