Patriots Defense Since the Bye Week

[Belichick8384]

Week 11 was the Pats' bye week so this will be measuring the Pats defense the same way I measured the Rams' defense. The Pats went into their bye week like this:

Allowing
23.6 pts/game
270.3 Pass yds/game
111.1 Rush yds/game

The Pats played four divisional games to close out the regular season (compared to LAR who played just 2 after their bye), and the other two teams they played at the end of the year were good but not all that great offenses. Pats weren't really tested on defense in the last 6 games.

@NYJ (3-7) (won)
Came in with:
20.8 pts/game
192.1 Pass yds/game
107.3 Rush yds/game

vsMIN (won)
Came in with:
24.09 Pts/game
315.82 Pass yds/game
85.27 Rush yds/game

@MIAMI (lost)
Came in with:
20.33 Pts/game
199.42 Pass yds/game
102.67 Rush yds/game

@PIT (lost)
Came in with:
28.23 Pts/game
319.08 Pass yds/game
89 Rush yds/game

vsBUF (won)
Came in with:
15.36 Pts/game
168.71 Pass yds/game
124.76 Rush yds/game

vsNYJ (won)
Came in with (Since this is the 2nd time in this same stretch, I'm gonna count up only what they'd done since the last meeting to see how they've changed):
27.25 Pts/game
211.25 Pass yds/game
92.75 Rush yds/game

In this stretch, the Pats' D looked like this:

14.83 Pts/game
206.67 Pass yds/game
115.33 Rush/game

The Pats greatly improved performance in pts/game and pass yds/game, even if it was against inferior opponents. However, against these inferior opponents their rush defense slipped a up a bit on performance to close out the year.

The best opponents in this stretch beat them.

One last note: The Pats lost (once again) in Miami, but if you take out the final play the defense seemed to have done enough to win though throughout the game - even without that play - Miami had exceeded their Pts, Pass, and Rush yard averages. This game was certainly the Pats' outlier for the final stretch of 6 games, but understandably so because it was a divisional game on the road. But overall the defense didn't have a particularly good day. Plus, the game in Miami was only the 2nd game the Pats D did not force a turnover.

Then in the playoffs:

vsLAC
Came in with:
22.76 Pts/game
221.94 Pass yds/game
109.06 Rush yds/game

@K C
Came in with:
31.41 Pts/game
276.82 Pass yds/game
106.71 Rush yds/game

One thing I noticed is that neither particularly excel in the running game, especially KC since the loss of Kareem Hunt. So these rush defense numbers might be good but its also against predominantly pass happy offenses. The Rams are the best rushing offense the Pats have faced in quite a while. So that will be quite a challenge, especially with Gurley playing. The Pats pass D is vastly improved from the first 10 weeks and can be deceiving if you're looking at their whole-year average. Though not as opportunistic on INTs as the Rams offense - the Pats have intercepted 8 passes in the last 8 games - they have only gone 3 games without turnovers including the AFCCG.

I think if the Pats D can pick off Goff a couple times, and hopefully strip Gurley and/or Goff, our chances of winning will increase by a lot. Winning the turnover battle will prove crucial imo. A good way of doing that is doing the other thing that needs to be done, stopping the run.
If the Pats can have as much success against the run as they've had in the playoffs thus far, it will be easier to pressure Goff into making mistakes and hopefully we can produce turnovers.
I would be worried about the Rams' passing game only if we can't stop the run. The run will likely be LA's chance to get the pass game going. So stopping the run is equally crucial imo.

Those are really the only 2 things I think that can win the game. As long as the Pats offense is careful against the newly revamped rush D of LA and opportunistic pass D I think the Pats can manage their way to a W with relative ease.

 

[maust]

One thing I noticed is that neither particularly excel in the running game, especially KC since the loss of Kareem Hunt. So these rush defense numbers might be good but its also against predominantly pass happy offenses. crucial imo.

Hunt's loss had no appreciable impact on the KC run game. Williams had a higher YPA (5.1) than Hunt (4.6). Hunt averaged mid teens for carries, Williams low teens. Hunt (22) & Williams (25) each had only one game where they toted the rock more than 20 times and neither was an overwhelming factor in the passing attack in the regular season. An even cursory glance at those averages would tell you KC actually had a decent run game they just didn't choose to use it often, given their offensive production being 'pass happy' certainly seemed to work out for them. The Pats offense probably had more to do with limiting KC's run game in the AFCCG, by making them play from behind they limited Williams to 10 runs with a 3 yard average.

 

[Belichick8384]

On their whole year average, KC is middle of the pack on rushing yardage. Though, I agree they probably don't use it as much because of their passing game. I think that ultimately makes it harder to gauge where the Pats' run defense stands at this point in the season.

I suppose the offense could limit how much the Rams use theirs if they can control the ball the same way against them that they did against KC. I just don't know how possible that will be because the Rams' defense is considerably better than KC's. Maybe the Rams' run D isn't as good as the numbers in the past couple games have shown but NO & DAL have a better run O than both LAC & KC. Dallas actually had the best on the year iirc.
EDIT: Nvm. On the doublecheck, turns out the Seahawks did. Dallas was #10 and NO was #7. So actually I will say not much better than either LAC or KC. Which is interesting. Before the playoffs, the LAR's run D was better but not by much than KC's run D. Could prove promising if the numbers in their last 2 aren't as impressive as they appear on paper.

That said, if there's anybody who could conjure up a gameplan against a team like the Rams right now its Belichick. I will be curious to see, first and foremost, how he plans to handle the Rams rush O.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Hunt's loss had no appreciable impact on the KC run game. Williams had a higher YPA (5.1) than Hunt (4.6). Hunt averaged mid teens for carries, Williams low teens. Hunt (22) & Williams (25) each had only one game where they toted the rock more than 20 times and neither was an overwhelming factor in the passing attack in the regular season. An even cursory glance at those averages would tell you KC actually had a decent run game they just didn't choose to use it often, given their offensive production being 'pass happy' certainly seemed to work out for them. The Pats offense probably had more to do with limiting KC's run game in the AFCCG, by making them play from behind they limited Williams to 10 runs with a 3 yard average.

No. They averaged 4ppg less w/o Hunt after the KC game.

His loss was huge.

 

[maust]

No. They averaged 4ppg less w/o Hunt after the KC game.

His loss was huge.

The subject was production from the run game and there was no appreciable drop off from Hunt to Williams in the run game.

 

[Kontradiction]

The subject was production from the run game and there was no appreciable drop off from Hunt to Williams in the run game.

It did change the way opposing defenses played them. And, in the end, if you're measuring any aspect of an offense, you should also measure PPG production as well. Because, after all, that's what it all comes down to.

 

[maust]

It did change the way opposing defenses played them. And, in the end, if you're measuring any aspect of an offense, you should also measure PPG production as well. Because, after all, that's what it all comes down to.

I agree PPG is what really matters but that was not the subject here nor was how opposing teams played them. Outside of an outbreak of andyitis or this being some kind of Millenials thing it's unclear to me what the disagreement is. I simply responded to the OP's assessment of KC's run game with Hunt gone as in "...in the running game, especially KC since the loss of Kareem Hunt." I did not say anything about the rest of the OP. I am more than happy to defend my position that the run game did not suffer. Unless you feel 4.6 > 5.1 I am unclear what argument you have with my actual statement. I said nothing about PPG with Hunt gone. Another thing that changed was the quality of opponents, 3 of the 5 opponents they faced after losing Hunt were playoff teams. Quality of opponent and what's on the line has more than a little to do with how opposing D's play you as well. But I digress. To get back to the actual point how is 4.6 > 5.1?

 

[Kontradiction]

I agree PPG is what really matters but that was not the subject here nor was how opposing teams played them. Outside of an outbreak of andyitis or this being some kind of Millenials thing it's unclear to me what the disagreement is. I simply responded to the OP's assessment of KC's run game with Hunt gone as in "...in the running game, especially KC since the loss of Kareem Hunt." I did not say anything about the rest of the OP. I am more than happy to defend my position that the run game did not suffer. Unless you feel 4.6 > 5.1 I am unclear what argument you have with my actual statement. I said nothing about PPG with Hunt gone. Another thing that changed was the quality of opponents, 3 of the 5 opponents they faced after losing Hunt were playoff teams. Quality of opponent and what's on the line has more than a little to do with how opposing D's play you as well. But I digress. To get back to the actual point how is 4.6 > 5.1?

Not a "millennials" thing, just pointing out that you're leaving out key context here. For instance, go take a gander at the snap counts at some of the Chiefs' opponents before and after Hunt and you'll notice that, after Hunt left, they began to play a lot of lighter defensive fronts. This is because defenses sold out to stop the pass and chose to play the run out of the nickel and dime formations more often. That has an impact on the run game. Therefore, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the running game doesn't appear, at least on the surface, to have suffered with Hunt's loss, but it did. Williams is no way the dynamic back that Hunt is.

What is a "millennials" thing, by the way? I know baby boomers have the market cornered on doing things like "borrowing" from 401ks for vacations, increasing the national debt, nearly destroying the housing market, and screaming for a supervisor at the first sign that they're not going to get what they want at McDonald's. So if pointing out missing context is a "millennials" thing, I guess I'll take it.

 

[maust]

Not a "millennials" thing, just pointing out that you're leaving out key context here. For instance, go take a gander at the snap counts at some of the Chiefs' opponents before and after Hunt and you'll notice that, after Hunt left, they began to play a lot of lighter defensive fronts. This is because defenses sold out to stop the pass and chose to play the run out of the nickel and dime formations more often. That has an impact on the run game. Therefore, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the running game doesn't appear, at least on the surface, to have suffered with Hunt's loss, but it did. Williams is no way the dynamic back that Hunt is.

What is a "millennials" thing, by the way? I know baby boomers have the market cornered on doing things like "borrowing" from 401ks for vacations, increasing the national debt, nearly destroying the housing market, and screaming for a supervisor at the first sign that they're not going to get what they want at McDonald's. So if pointing out missing context is a "millennials" thing, I guess I'll take it.

 

[Kontradiction]

 

[Belichick8384]

Patriots recorded 15 sacks in their first 10 games. In their last 6, 15 more sacks. Against their 2 best opponents (MIA, PIT) 5 & 2 sacks respectively. In the playoffs, 6 sacks; 4 of those against KC.

Pats have 21 sacks since the BYE, which means the D is getting better at pressuring the QB as the season goes on. Good sign.

 

[DarrylS]

I thought that in this D system that Sacks were not a reliable way to quantify how well the D is doing. Seem to recall that BB values QB pressures and controlling the "edge" more than sacks..

 

[PatsSox363804]

So much of this game depends on a combination of Gurleys health/effectiveness and our run D. The run D was god awful against Miami and Pittsburgh and pretty good since then. Did they figure it out or just a coincidence?

 

[RobertWeathers]

View attachment 22354

What happened? A simple discussion turned into a generational thing?

 

[RobertWeathers]

So much of this game depends on a combination of Gurleys health/effectiveness and our run D. The run D was god awful against Miami and Pittsburgh and pretty good since then. Did they figure it out or just a coincidence?

It's a great question.

I've always felt they had the talent to be good vs the run. High, KVN,Guy, Brown, Trey, Wise, Chung even Roberts when he's picking the right hole. Shelton seems to have played better since his banishment. Simon is also playing more and he's very good vs the run

I have no evidence to support this but I think it's better coaching/game planning and focus by the players to improve in this area.

 

[luuked]

Hunt's loss had no appreciable impact on the KC run game. Williams had a higher YPA (5.1) than Hunt (4.6). Hunt averaged mid teens for carries, Williams low teens. Hunt (22) & Williams (25) each had only one game where they toted the rock more than 20 times and neither was an overwhelming factor in the passing attack in the regular season. An even cursory glance at those averages would tell you KC actually had a decent run game they just didn't choose to use it often, given their offensive production being 'pass happy' certainly seemed to work out for them. The Pats offense probably had more to do with limiting KC's run game in the AFCCG, by making them play from behind they limited Williams to 10 runs with a 3 yard average.

I disagree completely. Losing Hunt cost them dearly in the AFCCG.

Hunt would have had 2 more TDs with one on that wheel route Mahomes missed early in the first half and then also on the second wheel route where Kelce was already celebrating. That's where the difference between someone like Hunt who is able to stay on around top speed while he is looking for the ball/catching the ball and someone like Williams who can not things like that on such a high level became evident.

Say all you want about their stats looking "fine" but that is the difference between getting Hunt or 75% of him. And also the difference between traveling to Atlanta for the SB or the end of your season.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I disagree completely. Losing Hunt cost them dearly in the AFCCG.

Hunt would have had 2 more TDs with one on that wheel route Mahomes missed early in the first half and then also on the second wheel route where Kelce was already celebrating. That's where the difference between someone like Hunt who is able to stay on around top speed while he is looking for the ball/catching the ball and someone like Williams who can not things like that on such a high level became evident.

Say all you want about their stats looking "fine" but that is the difference between getting Hunt or 75% of him. And also the difference between traveling to Atlanta for the SB or the end of your season.

His point was losing Hunt did not have an appreciable impact on the running game.

Without Hunt the Chiefs averaged 1 less yard per game on the ground but still averaged almost 4.8ypc w/o Hunt. Not bad.

Chiefs Planet says Hunt was more of a freelance runner/home run threat and Williams is more of a cut n go guy.

Mahomes passing numbers went down once Hunt was dismissed. Why? More nickel/dime and the did not fear Williams ability to hit the big run or pass out of the backfield

I think we can all agree losing Hunt had an impact on the passing game and the overall Chiefs' offense question.

 

[Kontradiction]

What happened? A simple discussion turned into a generational thing?

You’d have to ask him. I have no idea why he went there.

 

[Kontradiction]

His point was losing Hunt did not had an appreciable impact on the running game.

Chiefs Planet says Hunt was more of a freelance runner/home run threat and Williams is more of a cut n go guy.

Mahomes passing numbers went down once Hunt was dismissed. Why? More nickel/dime and the did not fear Williams ability to hit the big run.

Without Hunt the Chiefs averaged 1 less yard per game on the ground but still averaged almost 4.8ypc w/o Hunt.

I think we can all agree losing Hunt had an impact on the passing game and the overall Chiefs' offense question.

It definitely had an impact on the run game, too. As I pointed out, Chiefs opponents attacked their offense with lighter personnel. The result was appreciable in regards to their ground game.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It definitely had an impact on the run game, too. As I pointed out, Chiefs opponents attacked their offense with lighter personnel. The result was appreciable in regards to their ground game.

You're a millennial. You know nothing.