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The Regression of Patriots Special Teams in 2018:


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Context would be helpful. For example the 2 long returns allowed are the difference between being at 26.4 per ko and 22.
2 bad plays is a lot different than “regression”.
 
New rule, key ST players leaving (BB, Flowers and gulp Richards) and maybe even Slaters performance has not been good.

Execution, missing assignments. On the opening KR by TEN, I could kinda see it coming. There should've been someone (besides DMac) staying out on the backside, out of the scrum, to protect against the returner bouncing it out, but there wasn't. Somebody missed that assignment, but there's no way to know who.
 
our kickoff coverage has been so bad this season its amazing. shocking considering the importance we have always placed on it
 
The thing that bothers me most about the ST regression is that due to rule changes there's no reason to try to kick off to the 1 yard line anymore... but the Pats keep doing it anyway for no reason at all. Gost has more than enough leg to just drill nonreturnable kicks every time, which would make their kickoff coverage issues a moot point.

This is the kind of thing that we're used to seeing Belichick be ahead of the curve on, which makes it all the more frustrating that they continue to miss something so obvious, getting gashed in the process.
 
The thing that bothers me most about the ST regression is that due to rule changes there's no reason to try to kick off to the 1 yard line anymore... but the Pats keep doing it anyway for no reason at all. Gost has more than enough leg to just drill nonreturnable kicks every time, which would make their kickoff coverage issues a moot point.

This is the kind of thing that we're used to seeing Belichick be ahead of the curve on, which makes it all the more frustrating that they continue to miss something so obvious, getting gashed in the process.
I wonder if Gost overkicks he runs the risk of screwing up his FG mechanics.
 
Execution, missing assignments. On the opening KR by TEN, I could kinda see it coming. There should've been someone (besides DMac) staying out on the backside, out of the scrum, to protect against the returner bouncing it out, but there wasn't. Somebody missed that assignment, but there's no way to know who.
Might have been Gisgsby since he just got his pink slip.
 
Execution, missing assignments. On the opening KR by TEN, I could kinda see it coming. There should've been someone (besides DMac) staying out on the backside, out of the scrum, to protect against the returner bouncing it out, but there wasn't. Somebody missed that assignment, but there's no way to know who.

Might have been Gisgsby since he just got his pink slip.

Pretty sure it was either Ebner or Slater (possibly both) that blew the assignment. In real-time I was pretty sure it was Ebner, but it's a little less clear in all-22 footage. Ebner got too far upfield and tried to bounce outside his blocker, which opened up the huge gap that the return came through. It's possible that was by design and Slater was supposed to have that huge cutback lane covered, but that seems less likely. Slater was lined up directly to Ebner's right, and if he was expected to make that play then he overpursued, making it really easy for the returner to cut back and for him to be blocked out of the play.

The return lane opened up between them, so generally speaking they're the first guys you'd look to if you're trying to figure out what went wrong. Ebner's play there was far more egregious, you can at least make the case that Slater might have been doing his job and it only looked as bad as it did because Ebner screwed up and left such a wide open cutback lane to Slater's left too late for him to react to it. Hard to make any such charitable case for Ebner.

Also, Hogan made a really poor effort on the second level after the returner initially cut back and got through the first wave. That was the other one that jumped off the screen when watching in real-time, and he doesn't come out looking any better here. If we're calling people out for blowing that play, he should definitely be on the list as well. Conversely, credit to DMac, Gostkowski and Brandon King for staying with the play and preventing it from being taken the house. Although knowing what came next, in hindsight I kinda wish it had just gone for a touchdown.

 
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Pretty sure it was either Ebner or Slater (possibly both) that blew the assignment. In real-time I was pretty sure it was Ebner, but it's a little less clear in all-22 footage. Ebner got too far upfield and tried to bounce outside his blocker, which opened up the huge gap that the return came through. It's possible that was by design and Slater was supposed to have that huge cutback lane covered, but that seems less likely. Slater was lined up directly to Ebner's right, and if he was expected to make that play then he overpursued, making it really easy for the returner to cut back and for him to be blocked out of the play.

The return lane opened up between them, so generally speaking they're the first guys you'd look to if you're trying to figure out what went wrong. Ebner's play there was far more egregious, you can at least make the case that Slater might have been doing his job and it only looked as bad as it did because Ebner screwed up and left such a wide open cutback lane to Slater's left too late for him to react to it. Hard to make any such charitable case for Ebner.

Also, Hogan made a pretty poor effort on the second level after the returner initially cut back and got through the first wave.


It looks like Jon Jones also looped around deep to the inside from way outside, over-pursued, and got caught behind the returner.
 
It looks like Jon Jones also looped around deep to the inside from way outside, over-pursued, and got caught behind the returner.

Yeah, I thought about mentioning him as well, but decided not to because he was coming in from the outside anyway. If his assignment was basically to set the edge and funnel the return inside then he more or less did his job. Certainly not optimally, but he also almost certainly was not responsible for leaving that cutback lane open purely do to where he was coming from and where the hole opened up.

It's theoretically possible, but for that to be Jones' fault, they would've had to be running something more exotic (basically a stunt, I guess) where it was Ebner's job to deliberately push too far upfield specifically to bait the returner into taking the cutback lane he took while Jones simultaneously filled it.

If that was the case, though, then that would mean that Jones severely misplayed it from the get-go, and that basically everyone else was flowing in the wrong direction for good measure, and that Hogan and Slater both missed the memo since they could have been in position to make plays on that cutback lane but were caught off guard and with their momentum and positioning working against them.

Based on all of that, I'd estimate that it's possible Jones is at fault here, but if we're ranking the probability of each individual player being majority responsible I'd go something like Ebner 95%, Slater 4%, Jones 1%.
 
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The thing that bothers me most about the ST regression is that due to rule changes there's no reason to try to kick off to the 1 yard line anymore... but the Pats keep doing it anyway for no reason at all. Gost has more than enough leg to just drill nonreturnable kicks every time, which would make their kickoff coverage issues a moot point.

This is the kind of thing that we're used to seeing Belichick be ahead of the curve on, which makes it all the more frustrating that they continue to miss something so obvious, getting gashed in the process.
I have to believe the analytics are saying it still works around the league and we just aren't executing. But it might be time now to stop it because we can't do it right.
 
Context would be helpful. For example the 2 long returns allowed are the difference between being at 26.4 per ko and 22.
2 bad plays is a lot different than “regression”.

What? They have given the opponent great starting field position all season long. That's the context.
 
What? They have given the opponent great starting field position all season long. That's the context.
I don’t think that’s the case.
 
Do we have a new special teams coach? Could someone please refresh my memory?

Coach is still the same (Judge), but there has been a lot of personnel turnover.
 
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