Mark Cuban Contrasts NBA Growth vs NFL Demise cites Pats players

[Bill Lee]

All of Television and traditional view have seen their ratings decline..

Pure, American, flagwaving and wholesome NASCAR is down something like 17% in TV ratings..

MLB is down about 5%..

NBA viewing is up, maybe a competent commissioner is helpful.

TV is watched mostly by the oldest demographic(51 hours a week) and least by the youngest demographic(14 hours per week down from 26 hours per week in 2011)..

OTOH 3 of the top rated TV shows last week were all NFL broadcasts..

The argument about how the NFL is floundering is disingenuous at best as all of traditional TV viewing is changing..

IMHO NFL is not "floundering" but it has peaked.

Lots of things are now working against it. Roger has killed the scarcity effect. Aging demographic. CTE. Still the top dog, but the trend line is not encouraging.

High NFL TV ratings relative to NBA to me are in part due the fact that NFL is still on free OTA TV, NBA is not. That's one thing the NBA is messing up on, IMHO. In the era of cord cutting, they need some free OTA content so that cord cutters get the taste for the game and will then subscribe ala carte to NBA providers.

 

[Pats1989]

Maybe the NBA is growing as a whole. That said, I haven't watched a minute of the NBA in five years. If the game starts at 7, just turn it on at 9:40 to see how your team's performing. What will you miss? A bunch of dudes running back and forth putting balls through a hoop.

 

[Kontradiction]

I can understand a plan to attract young fans to grow the popularity of the league. I disagree that’s the demographic that attracts and excites advertisers.
I’m also curious if it’s a fact not just an impression that the nba fan base is substantially younger than the NFLs.

It's something that can be looked into a little more, I'm sure, but advertisers are clearly going younger. Whether or not that "excites" them is up for debate. But the NFL is targeting younger audiences through more widespread acceptance of fantasy football, the use of social media geared toward reaching a millennial audience (such as Snapchat stories, streaming through Twitter), and digitizing stadiums for a more interactive experience, just to name a few examples. That kind of social connectivity is not aimed at boomers.

As far as the average age, this is what I found from browsing Market Watch. The NBA's average age didn't increase by the same percentage over the last ten years as the NFL's and is about 8 years younger than the NFL audience on average...

The sports with the oldest — and youngest — TV audiences

NOTE: I'm not exactly sure what method they're using to obtain those numbers.

 

[Bill Lee]

For NBC, CBS, Fox and ABC (ESPN), NFL games are nearly always their highest rated, regularly-scheduled weekly programs - even Thursday Night Football. The national advertising revenue they receive from the games far exceeds anything they receive from any other block of dramas, sitcoms, etc. That's one of the reasons that TNF exists in the first place, and it's also why these networks have been so persistent in lobbying the owners about expanding the regular season to 20 weeks (with a second BYE week) and expanding the playoffs. Doing so would expand their weekly revenue bonanza opportunities from 20 weeks (with playoffs) to almost a full six months.

As above, there is a lot to be said for the scarcity effect.

Personally, I'm a huge football fan and have been since my pre-teens, but have hit my saturation point.

Even last year I would watch every minute of content I could get over the air in the Boston market, and would even use my Verizon phone to watch MNF and early morning UK games.

This year, lots of games get deleted off my DVR without being watched, and I can't be arsed to watch MNF, London, etc.

A big problem is that a lot of the content is just bad. More than half the teams have QBs that can't compete, maybe even 2/3rds if you want to be honest.

A big problem is that Roger is all about adding quantity (as per your post) but does nothing to improve quality.

NFL needs to do something to improve QB talent. Start a development league so QBs have a place to mature. Start summer academies to improve QB play at the HS and college levels so that QBs are NFL ready when they enter the game.

NFL should be investing more in the game, not in Roger's salary!

I think it's absurd that the NFL sits back and expects college to deliver NFL ready QBs to the league. The college game is its own business with its own goals, and they don't necessarily line up with the NFL's. The poor QB play we see should be enough of a sign that the NFL needs to do things differently, but they're more interested in building quantity not quality.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Maybe the NBA is growing as a whole. That said, I haven't watched a minute of the NBA in five years. If the game starts at 7, just turn it on at 9:40 to see how your team's performing. What will you miss? A bunch of dudes running back and forth putting balls through a hoop.

Like/Dislike the NBA or basketball as a whole, what is clear is television ratings are going through the roof at a faster pace than the NFL.

With the that said more people still watch the NFL and its not close.

Nationally televised NBA games have increased their viewership 32 percent this season and are averaging 1.4 million viewers, according to Nielsen, the highest since the 2010-11 season. Those include games shown on ESPN, TNT, and NBA TV.

NBA’s national television ratings up 32 percent from last season, per Nielsen

As NFL ratings drop, ESPN's NBA viewership is up 24 percent this season

 

[tasmlab]

I don't really see the demise of football, especially from the people I know. All armchair/anecdotal analysis on my part, but I know true fans rightfully bellyache about the quality of the product.

But revenues are up year over year. If viewership has been hurt, I'd be it was more of a disdain for traditional TV broadcasting over the game itself, IMO. I can't wait for the day where I can just buy the game outright over Amazon Prime and never see another Papa John's commercial ever again.

 

[The Brandon Five]

On CTE, yes it is a serious issue but I don't believe CTE has tangibly hurt the NFL numbers.

The impact hasn't hit the NFL yet, but it is coming. It is impacting youth football. In Western Mass this fall only three schools could field a freshman team. The quality of the product on the field is going to start to suffer as fewer and fewer young men choose to participate in the sport at the lower levels (you know, the talent pipeline for the NFL?)

 

[Jackson 2]

Maybe the NBA is growing as a whole. That said, I haven't watched a minute of the NBA in five years. If the game starts at 7, just turn it on at 9:40 to see how your team's performing. What will you miss? A bunch of dudes running back and forth putting balls through a hoop.

Look, if that's your opinion, that's fine. My view of hockey is that I literally wouldn't watch an NHL game if it was played in my back yard. I also recognize that's just my take and millions of others rightly love the NHL. Conversely, I love basketball and the NBA. Tom Curran, who obviously loves football has an interesting piece on NBC sports today entitled,"Six more years of Goodell doing their bidding is just what the owners want." In looking at the current NFL vs. the NBA, Curran writes, "The NFL is less interesting and its product less watchable than the NBA's."

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't really see the demise of football, especially from the people I know. All armchair/anecdotal analysis on my part, but I know true fans rightfully bellyache about the quality of the product.

But revenues are up year over year. If viewership has been hurt, I'd be it was more of a disdain for traditional TV broadcasting over the game itself, IMO. I can't wait for the day where I can just buy the game outright over Amazon Prime and never see another Papa John's commercial ever again.

Hard to take revenues seriously right now, though. Revenues are up in large part to the ridiculous broadcast deals that are still in place between the NFL and the major networks. Their drop in ratings will hurt them at the negotiating table when it comes time to hammer out new contracts. ESPN is also getting bent over the barrel by the NFL as we speak.

 

[Kontradiction]

The impact hasn't hit the NFL yet, but it is coming. It is impacting youth football. In Western Mass this fall only three schools could field a freshman team. The quality of the product on the field is going to start to suffer as fewer and fewer young men choose to participate in the sport at the lower levels (you know, the talent pipeline for the NFL?)

Yes. This will water down the quality of the league in a decade and you'll see most of its effects in two decades. That would be my guess. It'll hurt. But, as I mentioned earlier, exactly how much it will hurt is up for debate. Kids in poorer urban areas (so not Western Mass ) will probably still play football. That demographic makes up the majority of the talent that is in the NFL currently. Where the quality of play will drop off noticeably first is along the DL, OL, and particularly at the quarterback position.

 

[Mack Herron]

Taylor Momsen....shudders with lust...

Sing it.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Ratings changes largely reflect methodology, not changes to the underlying reality. Other changes are cyclical. Rated NASCAR viewership has basically cratered, while a decade ago it was being touted as America's number 1 sport. Reports of the NFL's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

I just don't have the time (or interest) to do the analysis, but I suspect that you are right.

I'd imagine that all sports go through cycles and that these cycles are driven by internal events specific to each sport (MLB players strike, negative CTE publicity, the rise of LeBron and other NBA stars), external events that affect all sports (technology changes, demographic shifts) and a whole bunch of other stuff I'm not even thinking about.

The tricky thing would be deciding how to quantify those cycles and then developing a metric that enables comparing a sport with 162 regular season games to one with 82 and another with 16. How do we measure fan commitment and loyalty? How is everything affected when the teams in one or more large markets suck for a while or don't even exist (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago for the NFL, for example)? In the end, the only reliable metric might be Advertising Revenues, adjusted in some manner.

Good point!

 

[maineman209]

As above, there is a lot to be said for the scarcity effect.

Personally, I'm a huge football fan and have been since my pre-teens, but have hit my saturation point.

Even last year I would watch every minute of content I could get over the air in the Boston market, and would even use my Verizon phone to watch MNF and early morning UK games.

This year, lots of games get deleted off my DVR without being watched, and I can't be arsed to watch MNF, London, etc.

A big problem is that a lot of the content is just bad. More than half the teams have QBs that can't compete, maybe even 2/3rds if you want to be honest.

A big problem is that Roger is all about adding quantity (as per your post) but does nothing to improve quality.

NFL needs to do something to improve QB talent. Start a development league so QBs have a place to mature. Start summer academies to improve QB play at the HS and college levels so that QBs are NFL ready when they enter the game.

NFL should be investing more in the game, not in Roger's salary!

I think it's absurd that the NFL sits back and expects college to deliver NFL ready QBs to the league. The college game is its own business with its own goals, and they don't necessarily line up with the NFL's. The poor QB play we see should be enough of a sign that the NFL needs to do things differently, but they're more interested in building quantity not quality.

NCAA football - all collegiate major team sports, really - are also entirely driven by the major corporations that own the broadcast sports media outlets. The shareholders of those corporations are the only folks making serious coin off college and pro football (while most colleges struggle not to lose money providing the "product"). So, yeah, it's all a business.

The primary concerns of corporate shareholders are quarterly earnings reports and dividends, an extremely short-term perspective that virtually excludes any long-view analysis.

I agree 100% about what could/should be done to ensure future quality. However, for the folks in the financial driver's seat, the cost of investing in the long term health of this particular golden goose is off the table. If this goose dies, they'll just find another one. At least, they think they will.

 

[Pats1989]

Personally, I just can't get into it. At least with hockey ( goals), football ( td's; turnovers); Baseball ( Home runs), there is the anticipation something big could happen. In Basketbsll, a guy puts the ball through the hoops every thirty seconds or so. There's no anticipation of something big happening until the end. That's just the way I look at the game. I fully acknowledge that the NBA is more popular and global than most sports. Ratings are high and attendance is up. Again, it's just a personal opinion.

As for the NFL, I agree that it has taken a hit. This season has been the most boring in a long time.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Look, if that's your opinion, that's fine. My view of hockey is that I literally wouldn't watch an NHL game if it was played in my back yard. I also recognize that's just my take and millions of others rightly love the NHL. Conversely, I love basketball and the NBA. Tom Curran, who obviously loves football has an interesting piece on NBC sports today entitled,"Six more years of Goodell doing their bidding is just what the owners want." In looking at the current NFL vs. the NBA, Curran writes, "The NFL is less interesting and its product less watchable than the NBA's."

Really? I would think if an NHL game were played in your back yard you'd be like "Whoa! That's really strange and unexpected, but still interesting!" And then you'd watch it, because let's face it having an NHL game played in your back yard would be really cool.

 

[Jackson 2]

Really? I would think if an NHL game were played in your back yard you'd be like "Whoa! That's really strange and unexpected, but still interesting!" And then you'd watch it, because let's face it having an NHL game played in your back yard would be really cool.

Of course it would be cool. How else would they keep the ice from melting? Jesus, use some common sense...

 

[rochrist]

Are you sure about the demographics? And why would young viewers with less money be more valuable to advertisers than older viewers with more money?

I'm sure about the demographics being younger for the NBA and trending older for the NFL, and I'm sure about which demos are most attractive to advertisers. I've read about it many times.

Key demographics vary by outlet, time of day, and programming type, but they are generally composed of individuals who are younger and more affluent than the general public: "Young adult viewers have been TV's target demographic for decades, because they're thought to have less brand loyalty and more disposable income."[1] In the case of television, most key demographic groups consist of adults who are somewhere in age between 18 and 54.

The subset of ratings that only includes the key demographic of 18- to 49-year-olds is often referred to as the "key demo".

EDIT: When they talk about younger, they aren't talking about kids.

 

[rochrist]

Yes. This will water down the quality of the league in a decade and you'll see most of its effects in two decades. That would be my guess. It'll hurt. But, as I mentioned earlier, exactly how much it will hurt is up for debate. Kids in poorer urban areas (so not Western Mass ) will probably still play football. That demographic makes up the majority of the talent that is in the NFL currently. Where the quality of play will drop off noticeably first is along the DL, OL, and particularly at the quarterback position.

I'd expect that, if they can, they'll play basketball first where their brains won't be turned into oatmeal.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm sure about the demographics being younger for the NBA and trending older for the NFL, and I'm sure about which demos are most attractive to advertisers. I've read about it many times.

Key demographics vary by outlet, time of day, and programming type, but they are generally composed of individuals who are younger and more affluent than the general public: "Young adult viewers have been TV's target demographic for decades, because they're thought to have less brand loyalty and more disposable income."[1] In the case of television, most key demographic groups consist of adults who are somewhere in age between 18 and 54.

The subset of ratings that only includes the key demographic of 18- to 49-year-olds is often referred to as the "key demo".

EDIT: When they talk about younger, they aren't talking about kids.

I was looking for something to back it up rather than “I know” and Wikipedia.

18-49 and. 18-54 is not targeting a young demographic.

 

[Kontradiction]

I'd expect that, if they can, they'll play basketball first where their brains won't be turned into oatmeal.

Not if they're better at football than they are at basketball. Education within that demographic isn't exactly great either. You're not talking about a bunch of Harvard or Yale grads. They might not know as much about CTE as the average PatsFans.com poster, for example.