"Tweener's World": 3-4 OLB Prospects

[mayoclinic]

Nice article from Fox Sports on 3-4 OLB conversion prospects today:

FOX Sports on MSN - NFL Draft - NFL is suddenly a tweener's world

Some nice quotes from the Steelers on how difficult the move is, and how long it can take. This is the best 3-4 conversion prospect class in a long time, and my best guess is that well over 50% of the top prospects fail to make the transition.

 

[captain stone]

Nice story, though it didn't break any new ground. Casserly on Path to the Draft also mentioned that a team needs patience with a DE-to-OLB conversion. Because of the time required before a Tweener should be expected to contribute consistently, drafting one at 23 may not be the best way to maximize the value at that slot. And with both the quantity & quality available, drafting one of them at 34 may be a better use of assets.

Unless a top-15 falls to 23, I am starting to lean towards taking either Darius Butler (Mayock's choice) or Will Beatty, because I don't think that either of them will be available at 34, and there is at least a one-round drop-off in positional talent after them. OTOH, there is a relative abundance of late 1st/early 2nd-round talent at OLB/DE. But under no circumstances do I want to waste one of the 2nd-rounders on a trade-up.

 

[billdog3484]

a Tweener should be expected to contribute consistently, drafting one at 23 may not be the best way to maximize the value at that slot. And with both the quantity & quality available, drafting one of them at 34 may be a better use of assets.

exactly, and it would be a lot cheaper to move up from 47 to the late 30's than 34 to the late 20's or 23 to the mid teens to get one of these guys

 

[BPF]

exactly, and it would be a lot cheaper to move up from 47 to the late 30's than 34 to the late 20's or 23 to the mid teens to get one of these guys

Good point, that's why despite all the hype most of these guys will slide to the 2nd, where they will be within range for the Pats to make a move if they so wish.

 

[stinkypete]

There's no sense taking a conversion project at #34, never mind #23. Every guy on the list has a major question mark of some kind, and someone is going to fall. If you really stack up the prospects, the risk/reward ratio is no different for Aaron Maybin then it is for Paul Kruger or Cody Brown.

I expect #23 to be an impact player like Maualuga, Pettigrew or Butler, not a risky project who grades as a 2nd or 3rd round guy.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Nice story, though it didn't break any new ground. Casserly on Path to the Draft also mentioned that a team needs patience with a DE-to-OLB conversion. Because of the time required before a Tweener should be expected to contribute consistently, drafting one at 23 may not be the best way to maximize the value at that slot. And with both the quantity & quality available, drafting one of them at 34 may be a better use of assets.

Unless a top-15 falls to 23, I am starting to lean towards taking either Darius Butler (Mayock's choice) or Will Beatty, because I don't think that either of them will be available at 34, and there is at least a one-round drop-off in positional talent after them. OTOH, there is a relative abundance of late 1st/early 2nd-round talent at OLB/DE. But under no circumstances do I want to waste one of the 2nd-rounders on a trade-up.

Casserly didn't break any new ground either, "most" of us understood the time involved. What would be new ground for Casserly is drafting a successful 3-4 OLB conversion.

#23 signed a 5 year contract worth $9.85M, with escalators $12.55M, guaranteed money $7.125M for a RB expected to produce immediately. 9.85/5 = $1.97M/year

#34 signed a four year $4.83M deal, $2.7M guaranteed for a WR who would be expected to be hitting his stride in year three. 4.83/4 = $1.21M/year

You save $760K/year waiting, insignificant by NFL standards. Let's examine the two most popular OLBs on this forum, Barwin and English.
-- Both will produce on Special Teams immediately.
-- You can theoretically get some third down reps from both in their first year.
-- Barwin can contribute as a TE.

Bold teams pick from 24-33.

Teams who attended Larry English's Pro Day: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers. New York Giants private workout the week after.

Teams who had Barwin in for a visit: Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, NY Jets, NE Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions.

If either one of these prospects are on your short list, you need to seriously consider that there is a lot of interest in them from teams picking before your next pick is coming up...and this is based on some cursory searching, it's not unreasonable to think other teams in that range didn't take a close look too.

I know some here think one of the late first Tackles are an upgrade for Light or Kaczur, I'm not convinced and I've seen nothing to indicate any strong interest from NE.

We know NE has brought in the last few first round picks for visits and last year their first three picks all visited Gillette. At the moment, based on media reports and draft projections, that amounts to 3 CBs, 2 OLBs (or 1 OLB and 1 TE), 1 OL, and 1 maybe 2 DL. I'm not too excited about CB in this draft, but if Malcom Jenkins slides that far he's a great opportunity. Andre Smith isn't getting out of the Top 10. For #23 money, NE may as well go after an OLB as a DL.

 

[mayoclinic]

Heres another take on 3-4 OLB prospects:

Draft preview series: Top outside linebacker prospects | greenbaypressgazette.com | Green Bay Press-Gazette

Some interesting quotes from scouts.

- On Brian Orapko, who the article rates as the #1 3-4 OLB prospect: “ 'He’s a dog. I know so,' another scout said. '(Texas players) don’t play hard, don’t give a (crap). It’s a disgrace. It’s Texas, you know how they are. Orakpo has Robert Mathis-like explosion and quickness at (263 pounds) but he’s a (wuss), he doesn’t give a (crap). He might do good, but can you say Vernon Gholston?' ’’

- On Aaron Maybin, rated as the #2 3-4 OLB prospect: “ 'Maybe has the best take off, first three steps, I’ve seen since (Jevon) Kearse came out,' said a scout who rated Maybin the best rusher in the class. 'Maybin can do things you can’t coach, and you coach the things he can’t do. Tough as (crap), 20 years old, can run, competes.' ”

- On Larry English, rated #3: "Scored an impressive 34 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. One scout raved that he plays with a special-forces mentality. 'He’ll hunt ball carriers down, he’s as tough as they come,' the scout said. 'He probably plays faster than he is, I’d take him (in the last third of the first round). He’s my type of guy.' English played defensive end in college, but a scout for a 3-4 team considered him the second-best outside linebacker prospect in the draft, behind only Orakpo. 'He’s produced every year, and it doesn’t matter who they go against,' the scout said. 'They went against Big Ten people or whoever and he’s around the quarterback.' ”

- On Everette Brown, rated #4: "He was listed at 6-4 at Florida State, and scouts were hugely disappointed when he measured in at only 6-1 ½. Seems to rate as a top-15 pick on many internet sites devoted to the draft, but none of the scouts contacted here considered him that good a prospect. 'Pretty good pass-rush ability,' one scout said. 'I don’t see him as one of these elite players, more of a second-round guy than a first-round guy, maybe late in the first based off production. But I didn’t see a lot of upside to him.' Seemed to get sacks in bunches, which concerned a couple scouts that he was just taking advantage of match ups he won’t get in the NFL."

- On Connor Barwin, rated #9: “ 'This guy’s a wild card of the whole thing,' one scout said. 'His numbers and athletic ability, he’s tested so well you’ve got to take him early, he’ll probably go in the second round now just based off the way he’s tested. But you watch him and he’s really raw, still has to develop rush moves, playing with power, playing with strength at the point of attack, sustaining a high level of play through four quarters of the game. To some people he could be a tight end, his best position could be as an H-back, but I think people are falling in love with him as a linebacker.' Said another scout: 'Athletically the guy is really good. But I think he’s a better athlete than he is a football player right now. Will the two ever match up? I’d say no, but I could be wrong.' ”

 

[jays52]

On Larry English, rated #3: "Scored an impressive 34 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. One scout raved that he plays with a special-forces mentality. 'He’ll hunt ball carriers down, he’s as tough as they come,' the scout said. 'He probably plays faster than he is, I’d take him (in the last third of the first round). He’s my type of guy.' English played defensive end in college, but a scout for a 3-4 team considered him the second-best outside linebacker prospect in the draft, behind only Orakpo. 'He’s produced every year, and it doesn’t matter who they go against,' the scout said. 'They went against Big Ten people or whoever and he’s around the quarterback.' ”

I feel so smug when I read things like this.

 

[Synovia]

'(Texas players) don’t play hard, don’t give a (crap). It’s a disgrace. It’s Texas, you know how they are.”

If I was a GM, and one of my scouts said that, he'd be gone. You can't have that sort of bias and properly evaluate players

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I expect #23 to be an impact player like Maualuga, Pettigrew or Butler, not a risky project who grades as a 2nd or 3rd round guy.

I agree, we need an impact player at #23. He does not need to start, but he should be able to contribute on specail teams and in sub packages.

I still think that player is Butler.

 

[JMarr]

If I was a GM, and one of my scouts said that, he'd be gone. You can't have that sort of bias and properly evaluate players

You haven't been around UT's program--although I agree that this scout would be foolish if this was a definitive statement on Orakpo in particular, and not just a somewhat tongue-in-cheek opinion on the kind of players that Texas has been cranking out under Mack Brown.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The hybrid hunt: Cleveland Browns aren't the only team chasing an impact 3-4 outside linebacker - cleveland.com

The hybrid hunt: Cleveland Browns aren't the only team chasing an impact 3-4 outside linebacker

Posted by jturner April 18, 2009 23:36PM

CLEVELAND -- The Browns have employed the 3-4 defensive system for four years now.

When does it start looking like the ones fielded by Pittsburgh and Baltimore, you ask?

Answer: When it lines up a pair of "hybrids" at outside linebacker who can wreak havoc on quarterbacks.

Hybrids have been described as players who possess the pass rush skills of a defensive end and the pass coverage ability of an outside linebacker.

Besides the stout nose tackle in the middle of the defensive line, the outside linebackers are the essential ingredients of an effective 3-4. Think James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley of Pittsburgh, Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson (following Adalius Thomas) of Baltimore.
-----
Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said, "I think the outside linebackers, the hybrids, are the most difficult guys to evaluate and draft because what you're looking at and what you're asking them to do is two different things."
-----
Many of those ends never use the physical skills to drop back into pass coverage until they prep for the draft after their college careers are over.
-----
"There really is no cookie cutter, if you will, as far as what you're looking for," Tomlin said. "I think more than anything you've got to evaluate the instincts of the men, their ability to innately see things. Projecting guys from a 4-3 to a 3-4, it is just that, a projection. So from my standpoint, I look at things that you can't coach, their awareness and their instincts."

 

[captain stone]

Heres another take on 3-4 OLB prospects:

Draft preview series: Top outside linebacker prospects | greenbaypressgazette.com | Green Bay Press-Gazette

Some interesting quotes from scouts.

- On Brian Orapko, who the article rates as the #1 3-4 OLB prospect: “ 'He’s a dog. I know so,' another scout said. '(Texas players) don’t play hard, don’t give a (crap). It’s a disgrace. It’s Texas, you know how they are. Orakpo has Robert Mathis-like explosion and quickness at (263 pounds) but he’s a (wuss), he doesn’t give a (crap). He might do good, but can you say Vernon Gholston?' ’’

- On Aaron Maybin, rated as the #2 3-4 OLB prospect: “ 'Maybe has the best take off, first three steps, I’ve seen since (Jevon) Kearse came out,' said a scout who rated Maybin the best rusher in the class. 'Maybin can do things you can’t coach, and you coach the things he can’t do. Tough as (crap), 20 years old, can run, competes.' ”

- On Larry English, rated #3: "Scored an impressive 34 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. One scout raved that he plays with a special-forces mentality. 'He’ll hunt ball carriers down, he’s as tough as they come,' the scout said. 'He probably plays faster than he is, I’d take him (in the last third of the first round). He’s my type of guy.' English played defensive end in college, but a scout for a 3-4 team considered him the second-best outside linebacker prospect in the draft, behind only Orakpo. 'He’s produced every year, and it doesn’t matter who they go against,' the scout said. 'They went against Big Ten people or whoever and he’s around the quarterback.' ”

- On Everette Brown, rated #4: "He was listed at 6-4 at Florida State, and scouts were hugely disappointed when he measured in at only 6-1 ½. Seems to rate as a top-15 pick on many internet sites devoted to the draft, but none of the scouts contacted here considered him that good a prospect. 'Pretty good pass-rush ability,' one scout said. 'I don’t see him as one of these elite players, more of a second-round guy than a first-round guy, maybe late in the first based off production. But I didn’t see a lot of upside to him.' Seemed to get sacks in bunches, which concerned a couple scouts that he was just taking advantage of match ups he won’t get in the NFL."

- On Connor Barwin, rated #9: “ 'This guy’s a wild card of the whole thing,' one scout said. 'His numbers and athletic ability, he’s tested so well you’ve got to take him early, he’ll probably go in the second round now just based off the way he’s tested. But you watch him and he’s really raw, still has to develop rush moves, playing with power, playing with strength at the point of attack, sustaining a high level of play through four quarters of the game. To some people he could be a tight end, his best position could be as an H-back, but I think people are falling in love with him as a linebacker.' Said another scout: 'Athletically the guy is really good. But I think he’s a better athlete than he is a football player right now. Will the two ever match up? I’d say no, but I could be wrong.' ”

Excellent article; I love those anonymous quotes, just as I love those found in PFW's Audibles section. No sugar-coating there, and I agree that Orakpo & Brown should not be considered at 23, 34 or anywhere else. Barwin, English & Maybin (not nec. in that order) are my preferences for OLB at 23 or 34, with Sintim in play at 47.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's an article from a Cleveland paper on hydrid 3-4 OLBs with extensive quotes from the chief Ratfink:

The hybrid hunt: Cleveland Browns aren't the only team chasing an impact 3-4 outside linebacker - cleveland.com

According to the article, "At NFL owners meetings last month, Browns coach Eric Mangini expounded on what he looks for in projecting college prospects into the 3-4 outside linebacker position. The first ingredient is pass rush ability. 'That's the jumping-off point,' Mangini said. 'You'd like to be able to see on tape some ability to drop [into coverage], whether it was in zone blitzes, whether it was peeling in coverage. Like sometimes they'll have the end peel if the guy runs a wide route. You'd like to see some element of that. You also want to see whether they can play the run, too. Are they going to be stout enough? Were they an up-the-field rusher every single play? Were they able to play over a tackle and be successful? Where they able to play over a tight end and be successful? Were they driven off the ball? Because they're going to have to do both to be successful.' "

Basic stuff, but a nice read.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Here's an article from a Cleveland paper on hydrid 3-4 OLBs with extensive quotes from the chief Ratfink:

The hybrid hunt: Cleveland Browns aren't the only team chasing an impact 3-4 outside linebacker - cleveland.com

Switched to decaf have we? (see post #12). :bye2:

Personally, I loved the final Tomlin remark quoted above.

 

[mayoclinic]

Switched to decaf have we? (see post #12). :bye2:

Personally, I loved the final Tomlin remark quoted above.

Oops, sorry. I've got a whopping head cold, plus I've had the 3 year old on spring break for 10 days now. The combination has scrambled my already scrambled brains.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Oops, sorry. I've got a whopping head cold, plus I've had the 3 year old on spring break for 10 days now. The combination has scrambled my already scrambled brains.

No worries, I just wanted to point your mind at the Tomlin remarks which were more subtle and, I thought, more revealing than Mangini's.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

Here's an article from a Cleveland paper on hydrid 3-4 OLBs with extensive quotes from the chief Ratfink:

The hybrid hunt: Cleveland Browns aren't the only team chasing an impact 3-4 outside linebacker - cleveland.com

According to the article, "At NFL owners meetings last month, Browns coach Eric Mangini expounded on what he looks for in projecting college prospects into the 3-4 outside linebacker position. The first ingredient is pass rush ability. 'That's the jumping-off point,' Mangini said. 'You'd like to be able to see on tape some ability to drop [into coverage], whether it was in zone blitzes, whether it was peeling in coverage. Like sometimes they'll have the end peel if the guy runs a wide route. You'd like to see some element of that. You also want to see whether they can play the run, too. Are they going to be stout enough? Were they an up-the-field rusher every single play? Were they able to play over a tackle and be successful? Where they able to play over a tight end and be successful? Were they driven off the ball? Because they're going to have to do both to be successful.' "

Basic stuff, but a nice read.

He did a great job with Golston I think Rex will do a much better job

 

[TriplecHamp]

Excellent article; I love those anonymous quotes, just as I love those found in PFW's Audibles section. No sugar-coating there, and I agree that Orakpo & Brown should not be considered at 23, 34 or anywhere else. Barwin, English & Maybin (not nec. in that order) are my preferences for OLB at 23 or 34, with Sintim in play at 47.

So if Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown were around at 34 you wouldnt take them? :wha:...That is the thing with these articles, people read them like people read the Bible. I have read articles that say the opposite. Not everyone is going to agree on a prospect but You cant tell me that any of your preferences are a better value than the other two at #23 let alone #34.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

So if Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown were around at 34 you wouldnt take them? :wha:...That is the thing with these articles, people read them like people read the Bible. I have read articles that say the opposite. Not everyone is going to agree on a prospect but You cant tell me that any of your preferences are a better value than the other two at #23 let alone #34.

I like how all these articles quoting scouts and personnel men are coming out just as teams are finalizing their boards...