You be the judge: Brady

[pats1]

You Be the Judge: Brady.

I will focus on this particular drive in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind it's only a small sample of the game:

Score: 17-7 Denver
Time Start: 5:33 left
Time of Possession: 0:26
Plays: 3
Yards: 0
Drive Started: NE 8
Drive Ended: NE 8
How Obtained: Punt
How Given Up: Punt


1-10-NE8 (5:33) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to B.Watson.

Time from snap to release: 3.25 seconds

Snap:



Throw:



Air (first frame or so with both ball and receiver in picture):



Ball Landing:

 

[pats1]

2-10-NE8 (5:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to T.Brown (D.Foxworth) [K.Lang].

Time from snap to release: 2.75 seconds

Snap:



Throw:



Air:



Ball Landing:

 

[pats1]

3-10-NE8 (5:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to D.Gabriel.

Time from snap to release: 3.25 seconds

Snap:



Throw:



Air:



Ball Landing:



...

The Patriots would punt, get the ball back with 3:36 left in the game. Brady would go 7-for-14 on the drive, ending in an incomplete pass on 4th down to Troy Brown.

It's now your turn. Who was at fault on these incompletions? The protection? The receivers? The play-calling? The throw? The defense? You be the judge.

 

[Oswlek]

Can you resize those? I get the point you are making, but it would be easier for me to analyze if they were 50% bigger.

 

[DefenseRules]

Either the Receivers ran the wrong route or Brady was just off on his throws.
Some of those guys were wide open though. Maybe Brady is just not seeing the field accurately, because he seemed to throw the ball in their direction. Maybe it's just timing?

 

[pats1]

Can you resize those? I get the point you are making, but it would be easier for me to analyze if they were 50% bigger.

The thumbnail or the actual picture linked?

 

[Bargod]

Wait. In the last example. How can the ball land at 5:16 but be in the air at 5:17?

 

[pats1]

Wait. In the last example. How can the ball land at 5:16 but be in the air at 5:17?

The ball is in the air before it lands. 5:17 comes before 5:16 when the clock is counting down.

 

[Bargod]

The ball is in the air before it lands. 5:17 comes before 5:16 when the clock is counting down.

Yup, just showing my stupidity. That's what I get for surfing with out a seatbelt. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Oswlek]

The thumbnail or the actual picture linked?

Hello? McFly?

God am I an idiot. I didn't realize that there were any pictures linked. I was sitting there with my face a few inches from the screen trying to figure out what was on the thumbnails.

Anyway, even on the larger pictures linked, I can't tell what is really happening on the first play, but the other two certainly look like there are open receivers. In the second one, the WR looks more open than he is because there is a safety that you can't see in the third frame. However, it definitely looks like there is plenty of room had Brady left the ball more towards the middle of the field.

Gabriel looks like he is open on the last play as well.

One caveat: All of this presuposes that the receivers were where they were supposed to be on the play.

 

[pats1]

Hello? McFly?

God am I an idiot. I didn't realize that there were any pictures linked. I was sitting there with my face a few inches from the screen trying to figure out what was on the thumbnails.

Anyway, even on the larger pictures linked, I can't tell what is really happening on the first play, but the other two certainly look like there are open receivers. In the second one, the WR looks more open than he is because there is a safety that you can't see in the third frame. However, it definitely looks like there is plenty of room had Brady left the ball more towards the middle of the field.

Gabriel looks like he is open on the last play as well.

One caveat: All of this presuposes that the receivers were where they were supposed to be on the play.

Yeah, the camera didn't pan fast enough on the first play. Basically, the defender was playing inside Watson and broke up a short pass.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It's now your turn. Who was at fault on these incompletions? The protection? The receivers? The play-calling? The throw? The defense? You be the judge.

All I can decipher from this is you have waaaaaay too much time on your hands. I think it's great you and Box try to amateur analyze and break down plays from televised feeds. Knock yourselves out. But absent coaches tape and an understanding of the specific play called and any adjustments that may have been anticipated post snap as a result of the what the defense did all that or this can tell us is what happened, not why it happened. Therefore it would be pretty presumptious of anyone to even attempt to be the judge.

 

[JR4]

All I can decipher from this is you have waaaaaay too much time on your hands. I think it's great you and Box try to amateur analyze and break down plays from televised feeds. Knock yourselves out. But absent coaches tape and an understanding of the specific play called and any adjustments that may have been anticipated post snap as a result of the what the defense did all that or this can tell us is what happened, not why it happened. Therefore it would be pretty presumptious of anyone to even attempt to be the judge.

Very good points. :agree:

 

[pats1]

Oh, I agree that we're not working off very much and we're still complete outsiders to the real story.

But we do what we can with what we have. Some real footage is a welcome break from the multiple trash heap threads around lately.

 

[flutie2phelan]

.... I think it's great you and Box try to amateur analyze and break down plays from televised feeds. Knock yourselves out. But absent coaches tape and an understanding of the specific play called and any adjustments that may have been anticipated post snap as a result of the what the defense did all that or this can tell us is what happened, not why it happened. Therefore it would be pretty presumptious of anyone to even attempt to be the judge.

Maybe what Mo says is true.
But i still disagree ... in context.

What Box and Pats1 are doing for us
is providing the closest approach to data
that (i imagine) any pro football fans get.

OF COURSE there is much that we don't have access to.
But demented fans like us are entitled to seize scraps ... and run with them.

Oswlek, above, cautions that before judging we would have to know
what routes the receivers were supposed to run on that play. Et cetera.

I don't think so. It has become a cliche
that Brady's favorite receiver is the open receiver.
And that a receiver has two jobs:
to get open and to catch the ball.

If documentary evidence shows receivers open,
i think it is the QB's responsibility to get the ball to the open receiver ...
regardless of lines drawn on paper.

How often do we hear about someone
"finding the seam"
... or "sitting down in the soft spot in the zone" ...
or "breaking off the route to get open"?
I mean, isn't that what they are supposed to do?

 

[DCPatriot]

What I see is an offensive coordinator who was outguessed, and outcoached, by a much more experienced defensive coordinator....along with low percentage mid range sideline pass routes which Brady, historically, tightens up on.. No slants, or crossings, or quick inside hitches.

No imagination on the offensive play calling.

NEM, you want Charlie back, don't you?

 

[JR4]

......

If documentary evidence shows receivers open,
i think it is the QB's responsibility to get the ball to the open receiver ...
regardless of lines drawn on paper.

........

The problem here is incomplete information. So you got some film that shows a receiver open.

That in no way means Brady should have seen him open. That should be
quite obvious but here is the reason why.
When did the receiver come open?
When Tom was reading him or moments after Tom had moved on to his
second or thrid read? You do not know this no one on this forum knows that.
See ...it is not possible to make any judgement calls with out knowing the
complete information about the play as it was drawn up and how
it was actually executed.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Maybe what Mo says is true.
But i still disagree ... in context.

What Box and Pats1 are doing for us
is providing the closest approach to data
that (i imagine) any pro football fans get.

OF COURSE there is much that we don't have access to.
But demented fans like us are entitled to seize scraps ... and run with them.

Depends on where you're runnin' f2p. If it's off a cliff (like say wanting to bench, trade or smack the franchise up side the head, then I'd say history dictates you view the scraps in context unless of course you just like to vent and look like a fool.

Oswlek, above, cautions that before judging we would have to know
what routes the receivers were supposed to run on that play. Et cetera.

I don't think so. It has become a cliche
that Brady's favorite receiver is the open receiver.
And that a receiver has two jobs:
to get open and to catch the ball.

Neither Brady nor Belichick coined that cliche. And in this offense a receiver has waaaaaaay more than two jobs. The janitor at Gillette likely has more than two jobs.

If documentary evidence shows receivers open,
i think it is the QB's responsibility to get the ball to the open receiver ...
regardless of lines drawn on paper.

How often do we hear about someone
"finding the seam"
... or "sitting down in the soft spot in the zone" ...
or "breaking off the route to get open"?
I mean, isn't that what they are supposed to do?

What you fail to appreciate is those are often predetermined adjustment a WR is supposed to make in this offense when reading the defense post snap. Guys who routinely break off the route to get open are often freelancing which works if you have a gunslinger QB who can't read defenses terribly well but whose physical tools lend themselves to scrambling to buy time and just putting the ball up there for a big, fast, physical TO or Randy type WR to run it down. Troy Brown can't do that, Deion Branch couldn't do that, and BB doesn't want them to even if they could. That would be wasting this franchises QB's strengths around which the roster was carefully and economically constructed (at least the 2002-2005 version - the jury is temporarily out on what the 2006 roster was constructed around beyond filling vacancies as best they could).

 

[BradyManny]

Cool post - great work with the screen grabs.

1st pass: Ben Watson had two people around him
2nd pass: Gabriel had little to no separation, but it looks like the ball is right in there
3rd pass: Thrown away, Gabriel wasn't close to open

At this point, Brady seems hesitant to throw into tight coverage with these wideouts he's only had a few weeks. In time, he will gain the same trust he had with Deion, that he can put it in there in tight situations and expect them to make the catch.

In instance 1 and 2, it looks like he was erring on the side of caution, seeing they weren't open enough to really give the wideout a good chance of catching it.

 

[pats1]

Cool post - great work with the screen grabs.

1st pass: Ben Watson had two people around him
2nd pass: Gabriel had little to no separation, but it looks like the ball is right in there
3rd pass: Thrown away, Gabriel wasn't close to open

At this point, Brady seems hesitant to throw into tight coverage with these wideouts he's only had a few weeks. In time, he will gain the same trust he had with Deion, that he can put it in there in tight situations and expect them to make the catch.

In instance 1 and 2, it looks like he was erring on the side of caution, seeing they weren't open enough to really give the wideout a good chance of catching it.

FWIW, the 2nd pass was actually to Troy. The ball also sailed slightly over Brown and into the hands of the DB, and it took a DB-style effort from Troy to knock it loose and prevent the INT.