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When to go for it on 4th down?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by makewayhomer, Sep 17, 2009.

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  1. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    How about every single time

    Interesting story, apropos of this 4 part study which tackles the problem of when teams should be going for it. it's a great read for the more analytically minded football fan out there.

    there have been a few of these studies, and they all say the same thing really: coaches should be going for it far, far, far more than they currently do. they don't b/c they are risk averse, and afraid of losing their jobs b/c the common fan/the public would flip out as soon if things went wrong.

    anyways, good timing to see an article about a team actually (largely) practicing what an academic paper is preaching - and finding success

    here is the conclusion for a "average" team - please don't shriek in hysterics without reading the study first :)

    [​IMG]
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2009
  2. patriotscpfc

    patriotscpfc Rookie

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    Is this the same thing that Belichick has always worked by since he discovered the theory

    (Bellman Equation?)
  3. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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  4. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    , BB goes for it more than anyone else but not as much as the study suggests is optimal
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