When it comes to the Patriots D, skeptics are still beating the same drum....

[Soul_Survivor88]

Just two recent examples

There’s an Asterisk Hanging Over Bill Belichick’s Defense

[Click Here to Read Full Entry]​

In a perfect sequel to the regular season, all the Patriots had to do to advance to Sunday’s AFC championship game was beat Brock Osweiler, who might be the worst quarterback they played all year. However, the way New England dispatched Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ high-octane offense helped to erode the idea that the Patriots don’t deserve to be counted among the best. They stifled Roethlisberger for most of the game, and he finished with 314 yards, an interception, and a garbage-time touchdown as Pittsburgh scored just 17 points. But even in resounding victory, a caveat exists: New England may have finally shut down a top-tier quarterback, but that quarterback went without one of his favorite targets and one of the best players in the league, Le’Veon Bell, who left early in the second quarter with a groin injury, a factor that taints what could’ve been a statement performance by New England’s defense.​

The New England Patriots' Defense Isn't As Good As It May Seem

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The obvious rebuttal you could provide is that the Patriots did face a top-10 passer just last week. Ben Roethlisberger finished seventh in Passing NEP per drop back, making him easily the best passer the team faced this year. They held Roethlisberger to 314 yards on 47 attempts with one touchdown and one interception en route to a 19-point victory. That should help bolster the defense's reputation a bit.

If Roethlisberger weren't so unique, this would be true. That conference championship game was in Foxboro, meaning the Pittsburgh Steelers were on the road. Roethlisberger was a radically different passer on the road this year than he was at Heinz Field

If we use just Roethlisberger's Passing NEP per drop back at home, he would have easily led the league in this stat for the season. His number on the road would have ranked 24th, right between Matt Barkley and Eli Manning. The Patriots' defense was impressive last week, but Roethlisberger's general struggles on the road taint that accomplishment a good chunk.

All of this is simply a roundabout way of saying that the Patriots haven't faced a true test defensively yet this season. The Falcons will certainly provide that. ​

 

[Ethanga62890]

Anyone who underestimates. Belicheck d is ******ed. Creampuff schedule or not. I doubt shanahan/quinn are doing that

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm not going to lie, the Falcons offense vs. our defense scares me to death. I get that while we've played bad teams, they've done worse than their season averages against us (we make bad look very bad). And I get that we have more talent than some realize.

I cannot wait to be proven wrong and will happily admit it. But this matchup really worries me.

 

[Kargetina]

There is only one thing that matters and that's the fact that our defense has been a huge part of our fantastic season and a crucial ingredient in the road to the SB.

It's one win away from helping us reach the ultimate goal.

Whether or not people respect them is irrelevant, just as the mouth foaming Pats haters calling Brady a cheater or whatnot are irrelevant and will be even more when Brady hoists the Lombardy for the fifth time.

 

[Alternator]

I'm not going to lie, the Falcons offense vs. our defense scares me to death. I get that while we've played bad teams, they've done worse than their season averages against us (we make bad look very bad). And I get that we have more talent than some realize.

I cannot wait to be proven wrong and will happily admit it. But this matchup really worries me.

The Falcons offense has great second and third receivers, and multiple running backs who pose a significant threat both running and receiving - it's almost tailor-made to give the Patriots problems. Fortunately, the Falcons defense faces the same problems - it's maybe league-average by the end of the year (they did improve as they went along) and doesn't have the strengths to give the Patriots offense problems.

Should be an extremely high scoring game.

 

[Sicilian]

Even if Atlanta scores a lot of points on us in the Super Bowl, that narrative will still be narrow minded. In 2003 when the Patriots (1st in points allowed, 12th in points scored) played Carolina (10th in points allowed, 15th in points scored), the game ended up 32-29. The Super Bowl is a crap shoot.

 

[deroc5050]

I'm not going to lie, the Falcons offense vs. our defense scares me to death. I get that while we've played bad teams, they've done worse than their season averages against us (we make bad look very bad). And I get that we have more talent than some realize.

I cannot wait to be proven wrong and will happily admit it. But this matchup really worries me.

How can it not, the Falcons are clearly loaded on offense. Its just that the Patriots are more balanced.. in the first half especially much like Pitts game it will come down to a goal line stand to keep the points down for Atlanta. Or something like that. Will Eric Rowes receiver actually catch the ball when it hits him the hands in the end zone or will the guy drop it?.. I just think over 60 minutes though the Patriots will instill there will on Atlanta. As long as they don't let the Falcons get up big on them.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Only one way to find out!

 

[SalemPats]

Just two recent examples

There’s an Asterisk Hanging Over Bill Belichick’s Defense

[Click Here to Read Full Entry]​

In a perfect sequel to the regular season, all the Patriots had to do to advance to Sunday’s AFC championship game was beat Brock Osweiler, who might be the worst quarterback they played all year. However, the way New England dispatched Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ high-octane offense helped to erode the idea that the Patriots don’t deserve to be counted among the best. They stifled Roethlisberger for most of the game, and he finished with 314 yards, an interception, and a garbage-time touchdown as Pittsburgh scored just 17 points. But even in resounding victory, a caveat exists: New England may have finally shut down a top-tier quarterback, but that quarterback went without one of his favorite targets and one of the best players in the league, Le’Veon Bell, who left early in the second quarter with a groin injury, a factor that taints what could’ve been a statement performance by New England’s defense.​

The New England Patriots' Defense Isn't As Good As It May Seem

[Click Here To View Full Entry]​

The obvious rebuttal you could provide is that the Patriots did face a top-10 passer just last week. Ben Roethlisberger finished seventh in Passing NEP per drop back, making him easily the best passer the team faced this year. They held Roethlisberger to 314 yards on 47 attempts with one touchdown and one interception en route to a 19-point victory. That should help bolster the defense's reputation a bit.

If Roethlisberger weren't so unique, this would be true. That conference championship game was in Foxboro, meaning the Pittsburgh Steelers were on the road. Roethlisberger was a radically different passer on the road this year than he was at Heinz Field

If we use just Roethlisberger's Passing NEP per drop back at home, he would have easily led the league in this stat for the season. His number on the road would have ranked 24th, right between Matt Barkley and Eli Manning. The Patriots' defense was impressive last week, but Roethlisberger's general struggles on the road taint that accomplishment a good chunk.

All of this is simply a roundabout way of saying that the Patriots haven't faced a true test defensively yet this season. The Falcons will certainly provide that. ​

It's crazy. If you read these boards during the season you would have thought we had the worst defense in the league and BB has no clue what he's doing. Maybe it's the Bill Simmons effect

 

[DarrylS]

My view is simple, despite the schedule set by the NFL you still have to limit the other teams Offense.. so they might give up yards, but at the end of the game the winner is decided by the score.. not by how many yards the other team has gotten...

An NFL team does not win 16 games in a season without, "haven't faced a true test defensively yet this season".

Remember the discussion about how the "greatest show on turf" was unstoppable, how did that work out??..

Defense does not win SB's, Offense does not win SB's. What wins SB's are well coached teams, with great players that have a great game plan..

 

[Tony2046]

To dismiss how the D shutdown Bell before he tore his groin is just lazy journalism.

They had a game plan that limited both Bell and Brown and adjusted to a power rushing Williams after Bell went out.

The Pats D is infinitely fluid. Atlanta could line up in a trips formation and see man on one play, Zone the next time and both (hybrid) on the next. On top of that Matty or Mack will have to determine where the pressure is coming from as the Pats D loves to crowd the line pre snap.

Atlanta will score points. It's just too good not to but I anticipate the Pats D will slow them down enough for Brady n crew to get control of the game.

 

[libra957]

I think everyone here secretly wonder the same thing.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

You can twist anything to try and make a case. That's what these guys try to do.

We've seen all the games and we understand the team. BB will dissect what Atlanta does and unless they make a major departure (i.e. Miami wild-cat game), then we'll have to trust BB/Patricia to give us the best chance of slowing down the Falcons. With subsequent/alternate plans if expectations become different.

One area that will be different, I suspect is not allowing the free release of the RBs in the passing game. Ryan and his team on offense can find mismatches and try to exploit them to their advantage. The defense needs to be able to disguise/confuse coverages to make enough stops. Doesn't have to be perfect and Atlanta will get yards/scores, but we need to see their punter come to the field.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

I would like to request Andy Johnson to please respond.

I rank his thoughts/insights at a significantly higher level than that of most reporters.

Andy - pls oblige.

 

[Tony2046]

I would like to request Andy Johnson to please respond.

I rank his thoughts/insights at a significantly higher level than that of most reporters.

Andy - pls oblige.

@AndyJohnson - this is for you.

 

[Ring 6]

I would like to request Andy Johnson to please respond.

I rank his thoughts/insights at a significantly higher level than that of most reporters.

Andy - pls oblige.

Wow thanks.

This is my take. First of all, statistics to analyze football suck, for many reasons. Statistics and analytics and 'next gen stats' don't have a lot of value to me. Yes, breaking down every iota of what has happened and regurgitating a ranking (really a prediction) is probably more accurate that a cursory look at basic numbers, but not by a lot.
Its about matchups, its about playing as a team, its about situational football, its about improving over the course of a season, its about when you make or allow plays, and what those game situations are. It is literally impossible to put a number on that.

The Patriot defense went out this year and got the job done. That is indisputable. The best defense ever would have won 1 more game.
The numbers that matter to me, are the ones that determine winning or losing. In the last 16 games, the defense has allowed 17 or less (meaningful) points in every game with the exception of Seattle, aside from the Buffalo game where it was 17 until a garbage time TD by backups vs backups, and Baltimore with 2 red zone turnovers. Honestly, those scores are irrelevant to judging this defense.

Now we turn to Tomato Can Argument. If the 1985 Bears played all their games against the worst ranked offenses in the league, would that make them a worse defense? The Patriot defense not only led the league in points allowed, they led it by a remarkable more than 2 ppg, and allowed the fewest of any team in 3 years.
I will never, ever diminish what is accomplished on a football field by someone's OPINION of what would have happened under different circumstances. We saw last week, that the Tomato Can Argument so far holds no water, as they held a very good offense, perhaps the best they faced to 9 points in 56 minutes before a garbage time 8, against a scheme they never would have been playing if the game were on the line.

I expect this defense to go out, and play better against Atlanta than most anyone they have faced (I chalk the Philly game up to an off day, so I would leave that one out).
Bill Belichick does not coach analytics. He does not build a team so you can oooh and aaah at all of the wonderful athletes.
He builds a defense to DO YOUR JOB, to play team defense, to play to the situation (Example do you think we play the same call and technique on 3rd and 9 up by 14 as we do down by 14?) to prioritize limiting the big play, to keep points off the board, but primarily to win. That is how this defense is built, and there is no way to judge it effectively other than what it does on the field.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Thanks Andy! (and Tony).

Very nicely done. Appreciate the time and effort you took to write.

Especially like your bold expectation that our D will play better against ATL than most anyone.

 

[signbabybrady]

This is kind of annoying to me. They've gone a whole season now. They are pretty damn good. Plus ATL has this seasons statistically best O not exactly fair for this to be the one that everyone judges it on.

I have faith in them based on the body of work. Just keep tackling and make them earn everything the way you have all year.

 

[Jackson 2]

Chris Gasper in his assessment of the Patriots defense in this morning's Globe, "They're elite, as elite as any defense that has taken the field in the NFL this season.". I hope he's right.

 

[mgcolby]

When did Sanu and Gabriel become "great" receivers? They are nice 2nd and 3rd options....great and uncoverabble...not so much.

I expect Atlanta to score around 24 points, which is what they average when they ay competent defenses. But I would not be shocked if they hold Atlanta to 20 or less with a turnover or 2.

And how does the narative of this game become how the Pats defense hasn't played anyone and the Atlanta D is underrated. How do you underrate one of the worst defenses statisticly to ever play in a super bowl?

I think far to many people are whistling past the graveyard on this one ignoring how their defense is going to stop our offense.