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WhatIfSports.com say Patriots to go 13-3 in 2008

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATRIOTSFANINPA, Jun 11, 2008.

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  1. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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  2. ScottieC

    ScottieC In the Starting Line-Up

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    Interesting, Thanks for posting!!

    I like it, I'm a homer. :)
     
  3. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    13-3 :mad:

    We will do better than that. Seems like everyone wants to hate on the Pats.












    (sarcasim)
     
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Actually, the computer predicts that the Patriots are the favorites in every game. The odds of victory range from a low of 52% (@IND) to 98% (v. KC); the Pats are given odds of <75% in four of 16 games (@SD, BUF, @IND, PIT), and >90% in four games (KC, MIA, JEST, @MIA). [Rather oddly, the algorithm predicts a higher likelihood of success on the road for MIA and BUF than at home.]
     
  5. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'll be interested to see what their analysis is for the other divisions. They've got the Browns finishing one game ahead of the Steelers in the AFC North.
     
  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I dont understand it. The projected schedule has them at 15-0-1 where does 13-3 come from?

    I guess its fun to look at, but its all a matter of what they input.

    Example: If my life expectancy is a miximum 80 more years, that gives me a 0.003425 chance of dying each day for the next 50 years. If you run a computer program with that formula 50,000,000 times, you will conclude that I will live exactly 40 more years. It is statistically correct, but that wont help me if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, or if I have a deadly disease that I, and the life expectancy prediction doesnt know about.
     
  7. blackglass3

    blackglass3 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No Jersey Selected

    I would like to see what they predicted for the Super Bowl.
     
  8. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Biased media, we're going 16-0 and they know it. :rolleyes:
     
  9. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think it's based on the idea that if you have ten games, and your probability of winning each one of those games is 60%, then your expected record would be 6-4 - even though you are favored to win all ten of those games.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2008
  10. NJPatsfan26

    NJPatsfan26 In the Starting Line-Up

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    I agree as well....
     
  11. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I checked, and that does appear to be how they're doing it. Another way of looking at it is this--the average probability of the Pats winning a game is, according to their stats, 0.797; 0.797 x 16 games = 12.75 (i.e., 13) wins.
     
  12. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I remember a quote from Parcels. You want to win all the games you should win; and 50% of the tough games on the road.

    A tough road game is against a playoff opponent and away. I don't remember what he said about tough Home games, ie playing playoff opponents at home. I presume he expects to win at least two thirds of those, in the ideal.

    That would mean one victory out of the two playoff road games; and at least one victory against the two playoff opponents at home, but with a chance to lose one more.

    Toss in a once a season stinker upset loss, and you are sitting at two, and possibly three losses.
    So 13-3 is not at all an unreasonable or improbable SWAG.
     
  13. NJPatsfan26

    NJPatsfan26 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Good analysis.

    I will be very happy with a 13-3 record.....seeing we are going to win the final game in February!!
     
  14. hambone1818

    hambone1818 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    It is interesting, and I like the strength/weakness analysis. However, any algorithm that gives the Patriots a lower win probability at home than on the road against two separate teams is flawed (imo).

    That said, I think 13-3 is the record I'd give them...14-2 might sound about right, too, and I don't see them going any worse than 12-4, but 13-3 is probably the safe pick.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2008
  15. SammyBlueCat

    SammyBlueCat Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Does everyone agree with this?
     
  16. bradmahn

    bradmahn In the Starting Line-Up

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    No.

    10char
     
  17. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Look at a a breakdown of ypc by quarter . If a team is behind by 3 TD and they have to pass, you play pass defense and occasionally you give up the 10 yard draw play which skews the running average.

    First quarter Pats allowed 103 rushes/372 yds--------3.6 yards per carry
    ( If you take out Leon Washington's 49 yard run on a freaky formation in the second Jet game it drops to 3.18 ypc)
    Rest of the game 269 rushes allowed for 1292 yds-----------4.7 ypc

    Above is based on quick and dirty math....
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2008
  18. hambone1818

    hambone1818 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Exactly correct, and while it was clearly something that we saw throughout the year, seeing the stats back up our perception is nice.

    The Pats last year played entire halves in pass formations, there is absolutely no reason to worry about their pass defense.
     
  19. JoePats

    JoePats In the Starting Line-Up

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    No. Provided Vince is healthy the run defense should be fine, especially since the LBs will be deeper this year. Im much more concerned with the coverage and to a far lesser extent the pass rush, than the run defense.
     
  20. SammyBlueCat

    SammyBlueCat Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Knock on wood - PATRIOT64 started a new thread about run defense.
     
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