What will it take for a Trey Flowers extension?

[Gronkowski123]

No chance BB pays Trey!!!

 

[ALP]

I’ve said it on other threads, I can see there being some reconstruction of contracts this year -

Cannon 7.5m hit
Allen 7.5m hit
D-Mac 13.5m hit
Brady - without extension is 27m
Clayborn - if cut is 2m dead money.

Wait, Brady's cap hit in 2019 is 27M?!?

damn, extend brady and all our probs are solved pretty much, say that drops from 27M to 10M we just like that have 17M

 

[abdul7]

From the very moment he made that play and sacked Rodgers in that pre season game ,,,I told my son that he was going to be good and special.
My boy still remembers and reminds me about it.
I so wish we keep him ,,,by far our best Defensive pass rusher and a solid Team player.
Should have given him an extension last year. Praying he stays.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Agree, except that the cost effectiveness of elite ST players like Slater and Ebner is really excellent. The Pats really wouldn't save much on the cap - and could cost the team a lot on the field - by attempting to "cheap out" on their ST leaders.

I agree they are very important, but disagree on ''wouldn't save much''. If they cut both players they would save 4.7M. You squeezy D Allen a little and voilá you get Clayborn for free.

They have over 20M and 4 VERY important FA IMO. If they want depth they could let Brown go and use 12M or whatever he will ask for and sign a lot of depth guys. Wynn would be our LT, Cannon RT and Waddle ST. That's a good way to keep most of our FA group.

They could backload a lot of contracts too. Our 2020 FA class is very short: 34 years old Edelman, 29 years old KVN, Clayborn and Thuney.

Brady, DMac and Gronk will be gone or extended before that.

Stephen Gostkowski - 4.5M
Josh Gordon - 3.1M
Trey Flowers - 15M
Nicholas Grigsby - 600k
Trenton Brown - FA
Jonathan Jones - 2.5M

Cordarrelle Patterson - 3M
Chris Hogan - Draft
Jason McCourty - 3.5M
Malcom Brown -3M
Ryan Allen -2.5M
LaAdrian Waddle - 2M
Brian Schwenke - 810k

Danny Shelton
Phillip Dorsett
Eric Rowe
John Simon
Kenjon Barner
Ulrick John
James Ferentz
Obi Melifonwu
Cody Hollister

 

[long distance]

The last time BB used FT was in 2015 for Gostkowski. Its the only one he used in last 6 years and most probable if he uses one next yr. Flowers is as Patriot Type as it gets but the risk of losing franchise kicker is second only to QB.

OTC had Flowers at 10-12M apy not long ago bc they don't see him as elite rusher and half of the league might share that view. Others can see him as perfect edge player, versatile, productive, mature and could possibly be willing to go over FT value.

Like in case of High and D-Mac id guess they'll keep an open dialogue during free agency and NE will be competitive. But if someone will go crazy as NYG with Solder they'll likely let him go.

There is some ground for optimism in the fact that both Draft and FA will have plenty edge monsters to offer. Lawrence (FT 2018), Clowney, Ford, Ansah (FT 2018), Clark, Graham are all UFAs after the season. The problem is Trey Flowers recently climbed to the top of some lists..

Maybe transition tag could be in play to avoid the frenzy of first FA week fwiw..

 

[TheRainMaker]

No chance BB pays Trey!!!

Why do you think that?

 

[Clonamery]

Why do you think that?

He doesn't think.

 

[Dexter]

People also said no chance BB pays Mason... I can totally see Trey signing a reasonable contract before FA that will satisfy both parties.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Belichick will pay Flowers because he can play inside or outside.
That helps make others around him better ... he's worth the money.

 

[supafly]

Wait, Brady's cap hit in 2019 is 27M?!?

damn, extend brady and all our probs are solved pretty much, say that drops from 27M to 10M we just like that have 17M

You can extend him for a couple of years (I don’t believe that Belichick would commit through the end of the 2021 season, though), but there’s no way that you’re going to get him down to a 10m dollar hit for 2019 without setting yourself up for disaster with high hits in 2020 (Brady will be 43) and 2021 (Brady will be 44).

The Pats seem to be pretty cautious when it comes to sacrificing the future for immediate relief, so this situation will be very interesting. I think they could add a year on to the deal and lock him up through 2020, but I couldn’t imagine committing to anything beyond that. Just my opinion. Others will more extensive knowledge of cap dealings may feel differently, although the situation may be difficult to predict since we’re kind of hitting uncharted waters.

 

[maineman209]

You can extend him for a couple of years (I don’t believe that Belichick would commit through the end of the 2021 season, though), but there’s no way that you’re going to get him down to a 10m dollar hit for 2019 without setting yourself up for disaster with high hits in 2020 (Brady will be 43) and 2021 (Brady will be 44).

The Pats seem to be pretty cautious when it comes to sacrificing the future for immediate relief, so this situation will be very interesting. I think they could add a year on to the deal and lock him up through 2020, but I couldn’t imagine committing to anything beyond that. Just my opinion. Others will more extensive knowledge of cap dealings may feel differently, although the situation may be difficult to predict since we’re kind of hitting uncharted waters.

As I commented elsewhere, Brady, Gronk, and DMac are all in contract years in 2019, and all near the ends of their respective careers. It makes sense to me that the Pats would try to put each would on a potential series of 1-year extensions with new guaranteed money in the form of signing bonuses with salaries offset by performance incentives - to provide some current cap relief. I think that can be accomplished without necessarily mortgaging the future into cap hell.

 

[Gronk]

Danielle Hunter (MIN) might make a good comp to work from (up or down).

He was drafted 13 spots ahead of Flowers in the same 2015 class. Hunter has a ton more sacks (37 total, including 115 already this season). Hunter signed a 5-year extension in June with a $14.4M APY (max), $15M signing bonus, $40M in total guarantees (some for injury only), and performance escalators that could max the contract value at $78M.

Besides Brady, the Pats are paying "upper market" money for ...
CB (Gilmore)
*SAF (DMac)
LB (Hightower)
*TE (Gronk)
OL (Cannon)
OL (Mason)

Note that there are no DL on the list.

They’ve paid top of market for DL before though with Seymour and Wilfork...but it always involved tense negotiations and holdouts. I would think they could sign him at something lower than the Hunter deal, due to Hunter having the type of sexy numbers that usually seem to sway teams. He didn’t hit the market, of course, so maybe that deal was below market in itself, idk.

I suppose it’s possible that someone could offer him the moon and BB would walk away from that. But for some reason it seems like he does some of the boring stuff that doesn’t translate into big FA offers, which makes him perfect here. It only takes one other team with space to burn though.

I think anything up to around the same as the Gilmore deal would be absolutely worth it, and I don’t think it would require extraordinary cap gymnastics to get there, though it will probably require some tough decisions. The aforementioned list of our impending FAs is rather large, but I’d say Flowers and TBrown are the clear VIPs on that list. I’d want to keep the kickers and 2/3 of the WRs and DBs too but none of them should be horribly expensive. First glance I would think around $20m could be cleared by extensions and restructures of Brady and the other higher cap number players...for just the sake of the Flowers discusssion I’m sure there’s a way to make his 2019 number fairly low to make room for all the other signees. Even with a higher guarantee than Flowers May command, Gilmores first year number was sub-$9m.

 

[Bradyking12]

From the very moment he made that play and sacked Rodgers in that pre season game ,,,I told my son that he was going to be good and special.
My boy still remembers and reminds me about it.
I so wish we keep him ,,,by far our best Defensive pass rusher and a solid Team player.
Should have given him an extension last year. Praying he stays.

Yea I remember seeing him in 2015 pre season and thinking wow we got another d player and was looking forward to seeing him play but then I think he didn't play at all during the 2015 regular season but wow what a 4th round pick up.

 

[Soliel]

A act of god or maybe a indulgence from the pope?

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

He’s put together 2 back to back solid games and, if this surging continues, will be cashing in on free agency.

 

[Brewskies]

Teams are looking for good defensive players like Trey.
I think he should be offered $12M because other teams will give him $10M.

Go Pats

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Do we know around what his franchise tag would cost?

He will get a huge offer somewhere so im not totally confident in our ability to keep him long term. Everyone knows how good he is and he had a monster game in sb51

 

[maineman209]

They’ve paid top of market for DL before though with Seymour and Wilfork...but it always involved tense negotiations and holdouts. I would think they could sign him at something lower than the Hunter deal, due to Hunter having the type of sexy numbers that usually seem to sway teams. He didn’t hit the market, of course, so maybe that deal was below market in itself, idk.

I suppose it’s possible that someone could offer him the moon and BB would walk away from that. But for some reason it seems like he does some of the boring stuff that doesn’t translate into big FA offers, which makes him perfect here. It only takes one other team with space to burn though.

I think anything up to around the same as the Gilmore deal would be absolutely worth it, and I don’t think it would require extraordinary cap gymnastics to get there, though it will probably require some tough decisions. The aforementioned list of our impending FAs is rather large, but I’d say Flowers and TBrown are the clear VIPs on that list. I’d want to keep the kickers and 2/3 of the WRs and DBs too but none of them should be horribly expensive. First glance I would think around $20m could be cleared by extensions and restructures of Brady and the other higher cap number players...for just the sake of the Flowers discusssion I’m sure there’s a way to make his 2019 number fairly low to make room for all the other signees. Even with a higher guarantee than Flowers May command, Gilmores first year number was sub-$9m.

For me, I don't think it's a question of whether or not they want to spend top-tier money on a DL. It's more about how many positions it's useful to spend top-tier money on at the same time. For 2019 (at the moment), it's ...
- QB, Brady
- TE, Gronk
- DB, Gilmore and DMac
- LB, Hightower
- OL, Cannon (and Mason)

I honestly think that Gronk is the most "expendable", although he could be extended for a year to reduce his 2019 cap hit. If he's gone, though, it's not the end of the world. The offense doesn't go through him as much as it once did, and it can be reconfigured.

I think McCourty may be getting close to being "expendable", too. Despite his two bad games, he's still the glue that holds the secondary together and is still playing at a high level. I'd much prefer a 1-year extension that reduces his 2019 cap hit, but the Pats have a lot of promising young DBs on the roster now. DMac would be more missed than Gronk, but I think the Pats could squeak by without him, if it comes to that.

Hightower, IDK. Bentley returning in 2019 (without having lost anything from his promising start this year) will certainly help - as will extending KVN, who's also in his contract year in 2019. But the Pats will need to acquire at least one more solid LB before they can live without HT.

Cannon I'd let him play out his contract, hope that Wynn can return successfully, and get another OL or two into Scar's pipeline/bootcamp.

After that, it's Clayborn and Dwayne Allen.

Clayborn, I wouldn't touch, except maybe to shift some salary to incentives. Allen is still "middle-aged", so a 2-year extension that brings his APY down to around $4M should work well enough (considering that he currently has nothing guaranteed).

Trent Brown, Ryan Allen, and Gost will need to be paid, along with Flowers and at least one of Mal Brown and Shelton. JMac getting another (short term) contract depends almost entirely on how well Dawson and Jackson develop over the next couple months.

 

[maineman209]

Do we know around what his franchise tag would cost?

He will get a huge offer somewhere so im not totally confident in our ability to keep him long term. Everyone knows how good he is and he had a monster game in sb51

OTC projects the 2019 FT for DEs to be just over $17M. I don't think that will work cap-wise, or that the Pats will use it on Flowers.

 

[long distance]

For me, I don't think it's a question of whether or not they want to spend top-tier money on a DL. It's more about how many positions it's useful to spend top-tier money on at the same time. For 2019 (at the moment), it's ...
- QB, Brady
- TE, Gronk
- DB, Gilmore and DMac
- LB, Hightower
- OL, Cannon (and Mason)

I honestly think that Gronk is the most "expendable", although he could be extended for a year to reduce his 2019 cap hit. If he's gone, though, it's not the end of the world. The offense doesn't go through him as much as it once did, and it can be reconfigured.

I think McCourty may be getting close to being "expendable", too. Despite his two bad games, he's still the glue that holds the secondary together and is still playing at a high level. I'd much prefer a 1-year extension that reduces his 2019 cap hit, but the Pats have a lot of promising young DBs on the roster now. DMac would be more missed than Gronk, but I think the Pats could squeak by without him, if it comes to that.

Hightower, IDK. Bentley returning in 2019 (without having lost anything from his promising start this year) will certainly help - as will extending KVN, who's also in his contract year in 2019. But the Pats will need to acquire at least one more solid LB before they can live without HT.

Cannon I'd let him play out his contract, hope that Wynn can return successfully, and get another OL or two into Scar's pipeline/bootcamp.

After that, it's Clayborn and Dwayne Allen.

Clayborn, I wouldn't touch, except maybe to shift some salary to incentives. Allen is still "middle-aged", so a 2-year extension that brings his APY down to around $4M should work well enough (considering that he currently has nothing guaranteed).

Trent Brown, Ryan Allen, and Gost will need to be paid, along with Flowers and at least one of Mal Brown and Shelton. JMac getting another (short term) contract depends almost entirely on how well Dawson and Jackson develop over the next couple months.

good recap.

Tackle position will once again be very intriguing.

at RT Cannon stays . if healthy there's your candidate for mvp vet deal.
Waddle possibly re-signs again if Croston, Tobin can't take over.

LT will be interesting. If Wynn would at least be able/allowed to practice with the team this season letting Mount Brown go would be natural. With missing the whole year and playing just few snaps in preseason it might be risky to go with Wynn alone as LT starter option.

Mount Brown has done very well as some expected but could have crazy market so keeping him would be a surprise to me. And even if the price would be reasonable and possible within next cap - i have the feeling of Branch scenario of money spoiling the effort in his case as well..