What advanced stats show about New England's Schedule + Patriots Defense (UPDATED with playoff #s)

[juny]

I just don't like the Pats haven't played any good offenses argument. I think no one really has. The AFC as a whole this year isn't that deep. Of the playoff teams, the ones with "high" scoring offenses are Pitt and Oak (pre-Carr injury), and throw in KC too as hill has given them an extra threat. On the NFC side, only 3 playoff teams have high scoring offenses.

 

[stinkypete]

DSRS is a good stat we can look at to try to balance the #1 scoring defense vs easy schedule issue. DSRS measures how many points your defense gives up relative to offenses it has faced. So if your opponents averaged 20 PPG, and your scoring defense gives up 19 PPG, that is +1 SRS.

DSRS
-------
1) DEN = 6.1
2) NYG = 5.4
3) NE = 5.0
4) SEA = 4.5
5) KC = 4.4

This is a stat that I can get behind. It makes the most sense that a good defense will allow opposing offenses to score less than their average.

 

[50-yard-line]

Interesting concern about the top red zone offense of all teams that made the playoffs.

Three of the last four games were nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate because the Pats couldn't seem to finish drives - particularly the Miami game.

Of course, the other two were against two great defenses.

 

[Ring 6]

Three of the last four games were nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate because the Pats couldn't seem to finish drives - particularly the Miami game.

Of course, the other two were against two great defenses.

They scored 35,41,30 in 3 of those 4 games.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I just don't like the Pats haven't played any good offenses argument. I think no one really has. The AFC as a whole this year isn't that deep. Of the playoff teams, the ones with "high" scoring offenses are Pitt and Oak (pre-Carr injury), and throw in KC too as hill has given them an extra threat. On the NFC side, only 3 playoff teams have high scoring offenses.

Yep. It's dumb.

Do the 85 Bears have a bad pass defense because Dan Marino shredded them for 270 yds and 3tds?

The answer is absolutely not.

 

[Tuck]

DVOA is nice but I'm pretty sure its still point that determines who wins.

 

[50-yard-line]

They scored 35,41,30 in 3 of those 4 games.

I know. I'm just trying to suggest why someone might be feeling that way. The Pats mauled Baltimore, Denver, and Miami, but in the third quarter you'd think they were up 50, but it was still within reach.

I have no qualms with this team at all, whatever advanced stat someone might want to put up to prove that they aren't good. They are, very good, in all facets of the game.

 

[Ross12]

One thing that bothers me about using defensive statistics to try to quantify performance is that the stats always seem to take into account the teams that they faced using those teams' total-season performance and not how they were performing at the time of the game. If the Pats played a great team in Week 3 but by end-of-season that team had sustained tons of injuries and the wheels fell off and they ended up being crappy, then the stats say "the Pats played a bad team", but that team wasn't bad at the time!

 

[Ring 6]

One thing that bothers me about using defensive statistics to try to quantify performance is that the stats always seem to take into account the teams that they faced using those teams' total-season performance and not how they were performing at the time of the game. If the Pats played a great team in Week 3 but by end-of-season that team had sustained tons of injuries and the wheels fell off and they ended up being crappy, then the stats say "the Pats played a bad team", but that team wasn't bad at the time!

There are many issues with these stats. Not the least of which is that if what you do produces a win it is better than something statistically appearing to be better that produces a loss.
I will never have a problem with what happens after the game is decided. It just so happens that with the patriots defense that is probably 20% of the statistics allowed.

 

[mosslost]

By the way, it's interesting that shank uses the term "tomato can" so much, since his head literally looks like a tomato can.

I have done a 180 degree on Shank not because I started to like him or anything. I now find him to be such a Ronald McDonald crazy curled red head clown that I actually would miss not see and hearing him around. He is such an old school, angry that the internet exists, mourns the death of print, wishes the Red Sox never won, boxing fan. I think he thinks football is a necessary evil. Even the term "tomato can" is from boxing and suggests both "laziness" and "loathing football in general" on his part.

The thing that has changed for me though is I now like having him around. Imagine what he is going to be like when he gets even older. It will be funny. I actually bumped into him in town once when I was going to a customer and he was fumbling with his cell phone it cracked me up. It was right when Theo had left and I said "Dan, you trying to Theo on the line or what?' and he looks me, smiled, and said "he won't return my calls anymore". The fact that he is a human being actually kind of struck me that day. I also ran in to Mazz once in a 7/11 and for some reason that felt rediculous, like get of my 7/11 ass hole. lol

 

[OhExaulted1]

"You play the teams they put on the schedule"-Bill Belichick

Shaughnessy's "tomato can" crap is idiotic. What should the NFL do? Wait to see who has the best record at the end of every week and send NE on the road to face them? The schedule is predetermined.

 

[mosslost]

One game at a time, Pats got this.

 

[Ring 6]

I know. I'm just trying to suggest why someone might be feeling that way. The Pats mauled Baltimore, Denver, and Miami, but in the third quarter you'd think they were up 50, but it was still within reach.

I have no qualms with this team at all, whatever advanced stat someone might want to put up to prove that they aren't good. They are, very good, in all facets of the game.

The only reason Baltimore was close was the 2 fumbles.
Jets and Miami games were never close.
I can't see how the offense in those games could make anyone concerned.

 

[Ring 6]

"You play the teams they put on the schedule"-Bill Belichick

Shaughnessy's "tomato can" crap is idiotic. What should the NFL do? Wait to see who has the best record at the end of every week and send NE on the road to face them? The schedule is predetermined.

Chb mostly has called the divisional opponents tomato cans. What he is really saying is that there aren't 4 and maybe not 3 good teams in the afc in any given year so the patriots being as good as they are creates a divisional round mismatch.
It's a valid point. He is just too much of a douche to make it in a valid non douche way

 

[OhExaulted1]

Chb mostly has called the divisional opponents tomato cans. What he is really saying is that there aren't 4 and maybe not 3 good teams in the afc in any given year so the patriots being as good as they are creates a divisional round mismatch.
It's a valid point. He is just too much of a douche to make it in a valid non douche way

They went on the road to Pitt, Den and Arz and won all of those. Most years I'd be happy with 2 out of 3. CHB is just a turd. A miserable old curmudgeon.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

What should the NFL do? Wait to see who has the best record at the end of every week and send NE on the road to face them?

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[EddardSnow67]

Awesome analysis in this thread. Top notch discussion. Compliments to all involved.

 

[deroc5050]

Interesting concern about the top red zone offense of all teams that made the playoffs.

Its not necessarily red zone offense, its more of Gronkless offense settling for FG's instead of TD's. We roll next weekend nothing to worry about. Talk to me when we play KC or Pitt.. my concern level will rise some.

 

[Ring 6]

Its not necessarily red zone offense, its more of Gronkless offense settling for FG's instead of TD's. We roll next weekend nothing to worry about. Talk to me when we play KC or Pitt.. my concern level will rise some.

Since their defenses are so good

 

[denverpatsfan]

Well it looks like the best defense remaining from the 12 playoff teams is gone? Giants were higher rank than anyone else? There goes that argument.