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Weekly Prediction Update

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Sep 10, 2008.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In honor of week 2 (when i said to my 8 yr old son last year 'this may be the best team I have ever seen, they could go undefeated) I will start my weekly prediction update.
    The point is where I think the team stands, and where it will finish the season.
    The idea isnt to be right but to see how much my opinion changes week to week based on each game. Everyone is welcome to join in, but PLEASE keep it to your prediction because this will all be one thread, and will get long.

    One week ago, my prediction was something odd will have to happen for us to NOT win the SB.

    Today, here is where I think we stand.

    Just looking at the AFC, I think with no Brady, we are CLEARLY better than every team in the AFC with the exception of Indy, Pitt, SD, and Jacksonville.
    I think we are better than Jacksonville and Pitt.
    I think that, as of right now, we are not as good as SD and Indy, based upon projecting how we will play without Brady.
    As of today, I think we win the division, do not get a bye, win round 1, then are an underdog to either Indy or SD in round 2.
    Not that this would doom any chances we have of winning the SB, but it would be an uphill battle, assuming where we are today leads to us needing to beat 2 better teams on the road to get there.

    (One nice side note is that both of those teams are 0-1)
     
  2. jeffjones

    jeffjones Rookie

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    I hope you're right about the Chargers. Right now, I'm just hoping they can MAKE the playoffs. LT has a sore toe, Gates has a painful toe, which may finally put him out, and our nose tackle needs serious conditioning work. On a positive note, we filled Merriman's spot today with Antwan Applewhite.
     
  3. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OK, update after week 2.
    We did pretty much what I expected to the Jets.
    Looking at the top teams in the AFC, I think SD looks like they are not as of now a contender for a first round bye, and Jacksonville clearly is not either.
    Top 3 are Patriots, Colts, Steelers, and as of today, I would say I now expect us to have a first round bye.

    Denver and Buffalo are getting on the radar but havent shown me enough yet.

    Updated prediction, we are in the AFCC but as of today, I am not comfortabler enough with our offense to expect we win it.
     
  4. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't know if I would include the Colts in the tops of the AFC. They look to be a very flawed team. They can't run the ball nor stop the run. A lot of injuries on the o-line. Just because the Vikings' incompetence in playcalling and agressiveness and creativity on offense allowed the Colts to stick around doesn't mean that the Colts are a team to beat. Any team with a halfway decent offensive gameplan would have beat the Colts yesterday by three TDs.

    I think the Titans and Bills are a bigger threat to the AFC than Colts. If you can't run the ball or stop the run, you aren't a top contender even if your QB is Peyton Manning. I think the Titans will win the South as long as they can keep Kerry Collins healthy and not have to go back to Vince Young.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2008
  5. PatriotNMP43

    PatriotNMP43 On the Game Day Roster

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    If defense wins championships(it does) then the top 4 in the AFC after week 2 are:
    1. Patriots
    2. Steelers
    3. Titans
    4. Bills
     
  6. Leave No Doubt

    Leave No Doubt PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So you guys are counting the Colts out? I dunno-I don't trust this slow start of theirs. I have a feeling they get their act together at some point and make a run right when they need to.
     
  7. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I wasn't high on them being an elite team going into the season. They got some real question marks on both lines which is never good. I think their big time spending on their top stars has severely taken a hit on their depth especially on their aforementioned lines. Right now, they do not have a single starter from last year on the o-line playing in the position they played last year assuming Ugoh is out.
     
  8. WhiZa

    WhiZa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Colts got their act together in the middle of their last game. They looked like crap all game then put it together at the end.
     
  9. hambone1818

    hambone1818 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Manning was out during the preseason, he's feeling his way around right now. Their O-line is beat up but will be healthy later in the season. I haven't seen enough of their defense to comment on that side of the ball, and they got torched on the ground in consecutive games, but Peterson will do that to people and it looks like Forte could be the real deal.

    Early returns aren't good, but I fully expect the Colts to be in the mix by the end of the season. Some combination of the Steelers, Colts, Pats, Bills, Titans, Jags, Broncos and Chargers will be the AFC playoff contingent, imo.
     
  10. Leave No Doubt

    Leave No Doubt PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yup. I know the Vikings just sort of ran out of gas or whatever but they were Demolishing the Colts. My friends and I were laughing because it's been too long since we'd seen that Poutin Manning face we've grown to know and love so much ;) all over the Tv screen. Anyway, while I agree with Rob about their situation going in, yesterday's game made me think that at the very least they'll make life harder. I don't trust them. I think they'll be back.
     
  11. SoCal Pmen

    SoCal Pmen 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #54 Jersey

    I would rate it as follows:

    1. Indy - Best QB in the AFC right now and their defense has kept them in games.
    2. Steelers - Good running game. Excellent defense. QB is adequate and more experienced than Matt C.
    3. Pats - Adequate QB play. Overall very sound team with the best coach in the league.
    4. Chargers - LT, no Merriman, Gates, weak defense. I see them fading fast.
    5. Denver - Can put up points. Defense a question mark.
    6. Buffalo - Good overall in three areas of the game.
    7. Jax - No real offensive production. Good defense.
     
  12. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    All look good excpet for Titans. If they could get Cassel, they'd be on the list, though :D
     
  13. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Did they put it together or did the Vikes fall apart. The Vikings ran basically two or three plays on offense almost the entire game. It was run up the middle, run right, and Jackson rolling out to the right. That was basically it. And the Colts still had trouble stopping it.

    The Vikes don't have a great pass defense either and it took all game for the Colts to figure them out. If you give a great QB like Manning enough chances he is going to beat you even with a bad team around him. The thing is that by the time Manning came around, they should have been down 35-0. If the Vikings did anything creative or smart on offense, we wouldn't be talking about Manning's incredible comeback. We would be talking about the Colts as a team in crisis.

    The Colts have proved little to me that they turned around their woes. I think the comeback was more damning to the Vikes than hopeful for the Colts. The Vikes are a team that are playing not to lose on offense, not to win. That is why they lost. They had the Colts back peddling for three quarters and they didn't even try to throw any punches on offense.

    I give the Colts a lot of credit for the comeback win. Not every team could do that. But the only reason they could even do that is because the Vikings didn't even try to put the game away when they had tons of opportunities.
     
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2008
  14. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A few things.
    1.) Indy's defense gave up 27 points in the first game. They let the Vikes score 5 times. They gave up 319 yards to the Bears and 299 yards to the Vikes. The Bears won the time of possession by 3 minutes and the Vikes won it by 5 minutes. Their defense hasn't really done a great job keeping them in games.
    2.) Ben Roethlisberger is more than adequet. He isn't Brady or Manning, but he is on the second tier. They do have potential o-line and d-line issues (Keisel just went out).
    3.) The Chargers still have a pretty powerful offense even when LT went out. Their defense can't put pressure without Merriman.
    4.) Denver is another all offense, no defense team.
    6.) The Jags' issue is all the injuries on the o-line. If they can stablize the line fast enough, they will be a player in the playoff hunt. Otherwise, they are cooked.
     
  15. chrisfx811

    chrisfx811 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I'm not yet ready to annoint the Pats defense as being enough to carry them to the top.
    The Chiefs are garbage in every facet of the game.
    The Jets are still the Jets, and Favre doesn't look like he even wants to be there. It was a nice emotional win, though.

    Buffalo impressed me with the Jax victory, and they look to be playing the most balanced football in the AFC right now.

    Denver has a nice offense, and they always give the Pats fits.

    Indy is still Indy. Being injured now is fine, but if they start to return guys as the season progresses, I would feel the Pats could be outgunned.

    Pittsburgh, is playing much like a typical Steelers team. Nothing special, but solid, tough football and they have enough talent to drop 28+ or limit a team to <14 on any given Sunday. It's a matter of wether or not they can do both at the same time.

    In the AFC East, the Pats have earned the right as the team to beat regardless of the QB, but a head to head against the Bills would be a nice barometer check.
    For the conference, I'd put us at a solid #5, behind Indy, Pitt, San Diego (yes 0-2), & Denver. I believe the rest of the conference after the Bills, lacks any clear cut contenders right now.
     
  16. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OK, now we take a step in reverse.
    After week 3, the outlook isnt so positive. I think at 2-1, we look about like a 2-1 team, and are very inconsistent.
    If we play 13 more like last week, we will be 2-14, but that isn't going to happen.
    As of now, I still see us winning the division, and see us in the 10-6 range.
    Back to no first round bye, it looks as of now as those are going to Tennessee and Pitt.
    SD, Denver, and Indy look like the other playoff teams, meaning we face one of them at home in the wc round. As of today, flip a coin whether we would move on.
     
  17. modman

    modman Rookie

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    Yea I agree. I sure hope the Pats figure out what's wrong these next two weeks or its going to be a long season. I really still cannot figure out the game against Miami. The defense is pretty much the same as the last couple of years with the exception of no Samuel(a downgrade) and a Mayo(an upgrade). I know a lot of people believe that the defense was never dominating over the last couple of years and they weren't(at least not compared against the downright nasty 03/04 defenses) but they got the job done. Granted that the 07 version had an all-world offense to help but the 06 version didn't so it just doesn't fly.

    At this stage I am clueless as to where to put the Patriots. Perhaps they will get their mojo back and bury the 49's and follow up with giving LT another year to whine but this team has a long way to go to give the team who played the Jest's last night any trouble at all.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2008
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