Nice write-up there Steve.
With Buffalo struggling to defend the run, that is exactly what the Pats should do to start the game, in my opinion: run the ball. That will set up play action fakes as they sell out more to stop the run, opening up the passing game for the Pats.
Funny thing is that from what I am seeing people in the Buffalo area are lauding Fitzpatrick for how well he is playing - yet they are also saying the Bills should draft a QB in the first round. Now I'm no expert on the Bills, but it seems to me they would be better off drafting a defensive lineman with that early pick.
My take as a long time Bills fan.
NE Offense vs Bills defense.
Do not get carried away with the Bills rank vs the run. Yes, they are last in the NFL, but 6 of the first 7 games opponents were 200+ yds on the ground, and that is skewing the #s. Last 6 games have been much better, and i would put them solidly in the "mediocre" category now, not the "terrible" category. This has mostly been accomplished as the Bills now play almost equal amounts of defensive plays from the 4-3 set as the 3-4 set. #90 (Kelsay) now plays with his hand on the ground mush more often, as his switch from DE to OLB was not working so well LOL. He was just flat out getting lost in space on coverage. #95 (Williams) is having a beat of a year playing inside on either set, and is the only threat to generate a pass rush when playing in the 3-4 from the D-Line. Kelsay can generate pressure when he has his hand on the ground from the 4-3, but so far that has been it as far as QB pressure for the DL.
The LB's have also have not fared so well. #51((Posluzny) is a tackling machine, but if D line in 3-4 set is not taking up the blocks, OL is often getting to 2nd level quick and early and moving the LB's downfield. This was the cause of so much of the early season fail against the run. The switch to the 4-3 has helped with this somewhat. # 52(Moats) is starting to make plays in both the pressure and run games as his learning curve of making the transition from college DL to NFL LB is starting to take hold. Still gets lost in space a bit on coverage.
DB's are playing well, not great, and mix between zone and man, depending on front and pressure package. As a group, good tacklers, but have not exactly been ball hawks this year. I think part of that is lack of consistent pressure on the QB from the front 3 or 4 lineman. Having said that, the last 3-4 games has seen more pressure coming from the edge by bringing DB's on the rush, and that ma be an area BB tries to exploiut this week.
I would think BB will use formation to get that two headed TE attack rolling on the Bills. That has been the one area where the Bills have consistently struggled, and you just know that big ole Polish kid wants to come home and have a big showing(lordy how did they not draft that kid). That is what will start to eat coverage from the Bills side, and that will open up the run/WR pass game. I would look for the TE combo to have 7-11 receptions and well over 150 yds in the air.
Bills Offense VS NE Defense.
This is where I think our will see the ball control, if possible. Now, from what I can tell from comments this week, the Bills expect to be a shoot out and have no hopes of containing Tom and the Boys. That being said, I think they will try to establish the run, run clock, and make yards in chunks down the field with the kiddie receiving core. Fitz will force balls, and has struggled with some truly god awful throws at times.But he is willing to take chances to make plays, and make them he does.Good hands and body position fro all the WR's, but not a true speed demon between them. He tends to start games slowly, and picks up the schemes as the game moves on. He is from Harvard after all!!
Strength of the line is pass blocking, and will be interesting to see how Wood holds up against Wilfork. Most Bills fans prefer Wood at center instead of Handgartner(sp) for next year, so this will be a good test. Right side of the line has held up well considering we have two guys who were not on the team 6 weeks ago starting out there (Wrotto at RT, Rhinehard(SP)) at RG.
Spiller has, in the eyes of most Bills fans, been a "disappointment" to say the least. He almost always wants to bounce a run outside, thinking his speed will get him to the edge like it did playing on Saturday, but ain't working on Sunday.Freddy is Freddy..rock solid hard runner who gets 2 yds after bing hit each and every time.
Punter Moorman having an off year, and Lindell been good to very good..only advantage we have in special teams in knowing the wind in the Rich, and that can play havoc with the Field Goals. Course, we also do not have a OL who could make a 70 yd KO return, so maybe advantage Patriots there.
rocker
