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We should aggressively restructure Colvin in the offseason


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Are you talking about salary or cash received (salary + signing bonus +roster bonus?? There is a big difference.

I don't think we should care about anything except the $5.5M that is due in 2008.

Why not?? If he is healthy, he should be able to get $5.5 million in new money.

We clearly disagree on this point. I think that a guaranteed healthy Colvin is worth roughly $5.5M/yr. (not much more)

This value would be significantly reduced by each of the following:

1. Entering the season coming off of an injury
2. Being highly injury prone (During his 5 years as a Patriot he will have missed HALF of his potential starts due to injury)
3. Trying to sign a contract after training camp has ended.

So, what happens if Colvin gets injured during TC??

An excellent point. I would support rolling the dice on this. But if we were sure that Colvin wouldn't restructure (or just unable to stomach the risk) cuting him is a viable option. It would allow us to focus on finding his replacement.
 
Colvin's deal averaged $4M. Probably the only decent OLB you could acquire would want that or more, since for example AD gave us a break at $7M, and they wouldn't know the system. Rosie's entie signing bonus was only $6M - AD got $12M and $20M guaranteed. You don't get to beat sunk cost out of them due to injury...which is why I believe they did a 3 year extension with Seymour (which also allowed them to spread his cap over 4 years)...and you can't restructure a guy with only one year left.

Rosie was having a pretty darn good year for what he actually gets paid. He will likely get extended 3-4 years with his 2008 salary converted to signing bonus and some roster bonus structure or incentives as sweeteners for the out years. If we can keep a veteran OLB familiar with the system on board for $4M AAV per we will be lucky.

And at the end of the day what happens with Rosie will have nothing to do with Asante. They will offer him what they believe is his value to this team, and not a nickle more - even if they have extra cap space. He's not getting Brady or Seymour money period.

I think we really disagree about how good he is.

In my mind, AD is clearly in a different class from Colvin.

Last year Cato June signed a deal for $3M/yr.

London Fletcher signed for $5M/yr.

I don't see even a healthy Colvin being worth much more than $5.5M/yr.


BTW, I'd keep Rosie for $4M if it looked like he had fully recovered from his injury. I might even offer him a long term deal at that rate.

I'm saying we should use our leverage to GET that deal.
 
We clearly disagree on this point. I think that a guaranteed healthy Colvin is worth roughly $5.5M/yr. (not much more)

Under your scenario (he is on the Patriots roster until September) my point is that Colvin is likely to get a deal that will pay at least $5.5 million in 2008. The $5.5 million may be part of a deal that is longer than a year.

2. Being highly injury prone (During his 5 years as a Patriot he will have missed HALF of his potential starts due to injury)
That's an exaggeration. Prior to this Colvin has not missed an game since 2003. IMO, an injury-prone player misses games AND does not play in 59 consecutive games.

3. Trying to sign a contract after training camp has ended.

There are several teams now way under the 2007 cap. I expect that there will be several teams way under the 2008 cap when TC ends.

An excellent point. I would support rolling the dice on this. But if we were sure that Colvin wouldn't restructure (or just unable to stomach the risk) cuting him is a viable option. It would allow us to focus on finding his replacement.

So, if I am understanding you correctly.

Your plan is to ask Colvin to take a paycut in February. If he says no, keep him on the roster while the Patriots find his replacement and then cut him in September. So the Patriots will take the risk of having a player you have labeled "highly injury-prone" take part in mini-camps, TC, and preseason games. That does not sound like how the Patriots operate.
 
Let's say that the so-called injury prone Colvin is healthy throughout mini-camps, TC and the preseason games. Why would he then be afraid of not getting at least $5.5 million in the open market?? Why would a healthy Colvin agree in September to a paycut??

I can see Colvin agreeing to a paycut in February when he may be an unproven commodity but not in September.
 
People forgot ... the last few years the top 10 players in NFL to created QB presure had rosie for 3 yrs in a row. how can you say he is not good as flecter who is older and not generating rosie`s performance.Also the guy is 31 and if you really watch he is the best cover OLB we have.how many times have you see him intercept rivers to LT and harrass LT. He is lighter of the OLB and against good RB on the outside is good in coverage.

Comparing OLB with good lateral movement [rosie] vs Bigger OLB with good downhill movement [AD] is confusing .Rosie runs around tackle AD runs through them different mode of attack again comparing 2 different types.Look at meriman last year in AD type roll excelled and this year in more rosie role is very limited .his sacks came in games where be played is traditional role. i will be worried if AD is going to asked to play to his weakness [lateral movemevt heavy role ].
 
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Under your scenario (he is on the Patriots roster until September) my point is that Colvin is likely to get a deal that will pay at least $5.5 million in 2008. The $5.5 million may be part of a deal that is longer than a year.

I object to paying him $5.5M for 1 year.

I have no objection to paying Colvin $5.5M in 2008 as part of a 3 year $10M deal. I'd actively cheer such a deal. The point of my post is that we should use our leverage to get Colvin to sign such a deal.

That's an exaggeration. Prior to this Colvin has not missed an game since 2003. IMO, an injury-prone player misses games AND does not play in 59 consecutive games.

Colvin will have started 39 out of 80 possible regular season games. That has to be figured into the value placed on him, both by New England and by other franchises.

There are several teams now way under the 2007 cap. I expect that there will be several teams way under the 2008 cap when TC ends.

I'm sure that MOST NFL franchises will be able to afford Colvin if we cut him late in TC. But players tend to get smaller contracts late in TC than they get when FA starts.

Your plan is to ask Colvin to take a paycut in February. If he says no, keep him on the roster while the Patriots find his replacement and then cut him in September. So the Patriots will take the risk of having a player you have labeled "highly injury-prone" take part in mini-camps, TC, and preseason games. That does not sound like how the Patriots operate.

I don't have any particular objection to cutting him earlier than that.

I'd prefer to keep him on the roster as an insurance policy. If Vrabel and AD get injured during TC 2008, paying Colvin $5.5M would suddenly look like a very good idea.

We did keep Milloy on the roster until very late in TC, even though we knew that negotiations were at an impasse.

Players who negotiate roster bonuses get the advantage of forcing us to make decisions early (but probably lose cash because of the insistence). Players who don't negotiate roster bonuses are at the team's mercy.
 
Let's say that the so-called injury prone Colvin is healthy throughout mini-camps, TC and the preseason games. Why would he then be afraid of not getting at least $5.5 million in the open market?? Why would a healthy Colvin agree in September to a paycut??

I can see Colvin agreeing to a paycut in February when he may be an unproven commodity but not in September.

I'd like to negotiate a paycut BEFORE the draft.

The prospect of being cut in September is part of our negotiating leverage in March.

Actually following through with this and cutting him in September is not my preferred outcome. If it were, the title of this thread would be "Is Colvin Done?" :)
 
Colvin is a very good player. He's likely worth $5.5M/year when healthy.

But he hasn't been healthy. And while GMs may not sit around saying "Colvin is made of glass", it will hurt his market value.

The Patriots should negotiate an extension with Colvin that costs substantially less than the $5.5M/yr he scheduled to earn in 2008.

If he doesn't, we should look for a new LB in free agency and (provided our depth at LB permits it) cut him on the eve of the 2008 season.

I'm just curious as to why you think that Colvin is hurt too often. Remind me of the other time he was hurt besides 2003. From his stats, he's played in every game since 2003. 59 straight. Now I know he wasn't that effective in the first few when he came back from the hip injury. But what other injuries are you referring to?
 
Colvin has started a total of 39 out of 75 regular season games since he arrived here. He's not being paid the big bucks to ride the bench.

Talk about disingenuous.
1st off, Colvin wasn't available for 75 games due to the fluke hip injury. Colvin was only available for 61 games.

While Colvin only "started" in 39 games, please don't forget that 15 of the games he didn't start in were the 1st year back from injury.. And even though Colvin didn't start in those games, he still played. Which was simply amazing.

Not paying Colvin $5.5M dollars in 2008 is nonsense? Just how much do you think he is worth in 2008? Most teams don't even have one LB earning that much.

If we cut him on the eve of the 2008 season, he won't be able to earn anywhere near $5.5M. We should use this leverage to renegotiate his deal.

WOW. Just WOW. I think you need to look around the league a bit, Solman. There are a LOT of teams paying ONE LB over 5 million. The franchise number for LBs is 7.613 million. So there are at least 5 LBs in the league making over 5.5 million. The transition tag is 6.493 million for a LB. My guess is that at least 7 or 8 of those are over 5.5 million, if not all 10.

Also, The Patriots don't need to threaten Colvin. You need to be reminded that Colvin WILLINGLY restructured his contract in his 2nd year with the Pats. Also, the last time the Pats played that game of chicken (Lawyer Milloy) the Pats were the ones proven wrong. Milloy got more on the open market than what the Pats offered him.
 
I think the problem with the tack you took in this thread is you assumed anyone believed the Pats were going to keep Rosie on the roster at his $7M+ 2008 cap hit. Few of us who really thought about it did. If he was playing well this season, which he had been, he was primed for a fair and generous extension that would cut that cap hit in half. If he was playing poorly, which he definitely was not, he would likely face the dreaded take a pay cut or sayonara scenario.

That he was injured this week is really incidental to that discussion unless they believe his injury is one that will impact his ability to play at all going forward. He didn't pull or tweek something nor has he had any history of that, something is obviously broken or he wouldn't have gone on IR. He's no more injury prone than Rodney was in 2005, and Rodney was not asked to restructure or take a pay cut in 2006. He wasn't asked to take one until he missed time again down the stretch in 2006 due to tweeking prior injuries. Then he was asked to take a $900K pay cut for 2007 - which for all we know went to NLTBE which he could have easily earned back (if not for the suspension) simply by seeing lots of playing time in 2007.

Using Milloy or Law as examples is really bogus. That was a much different time, we were up against the cap and desperately needed to improve with no other moves to make. Milloy's cap hit was as much or more than Rosie's back in 2003 and Bill had to challenge his staff to find a single impact play he had made all 2002 season (and much to their chagrin they could not), and Law was set to count $10M+ against an $74M cap and unwilling to agree to an extension he in hindsight was unable to match. Yet because he was still producing they kept Law through 2004 at a $10M cap hit and didn't cut him until his cap hit rose to $12M against an $80M cap because they were willing to pay him his $6M+ salary even limping, just not to do that while stuck dealing with the fallout from an earlier tremendously backloaded deal.

So, will they cut a player who isn't producing and adamantly refuses to take a pay cut, or one who is producing but refuses to sign a reasonable extension to difuse his impending cap hit? Sure, but I don't think Rosie is either of those. He was reasonable in 2003 as a top FA, they stuck by him as he rehabbed from a devastating injury that many felt would end his career, and he's played better each year since returning. I think they will quietly handle the business end of Rosie's deal without beating each other over the head needlessly. It's not good business to squeeze good players for leverage simply as a matter of course. Particularly when you are already thin and aging at a position, find it difficult or expensive to replace players at the position, and the player grew up and has a post career business venture already established in Indianapolis.
 
I don't think we should care about anything except the $5.5M that is due in 2008.



We clearly disagree on this point. I think that a guaranteed healthy Colvin is worth roughly $5.5M/yr. (not much more)

This value would be significantly reduced by each of the following:

1. Entering the season coming off of an injury
2. Being highly injury prone (During his 5 years as a Patriot he will have missed HALF of his potential starts due to injury)
3. Trying to sign a contract after training camp has ended.



An excellent point. I would support rolling the dice on this. But if we were sure that Colvin wouldn't restructure (or just unable to stomach the risk) cuting him is a viable option. It would allow us to focus on finding his replacement.

WOW.. Normally you are a decent poster but you are thoroughly disingenuous about Colving being injury prone. He's had 2 injuries since he joined the Patriots. Just because the ONE injury cost him 14 games and 29 "starts" doesn't mean he's injury prone.

Also, some of the more recent non-starts were due to GAME PLAN, not injury.

Talk about only seeing what you want to see.
 
I think the problem with the tack you took in this thread is you assumed anyone believed the Pats were going to keep Rosie on the roster at his $7M+ 2008 cap hit. Few of us who really thought about it did.

You are quite right. I thought that many of the posters in this thread were arguing that we should keep Colvin in 2008 as part of his current contract.

If we all agree that he will NOT make the 2008 roster unless he restructures or extends extends, then we don't have anything to argue about.
 
This board is absolutely ridiculous right now. You do realize that this weeks game will be the first game Colvin has missed since '03, don't you?

This reactionary nonsense "Colvin needs to be restructured," "Colvin will be easy to replace," "Maroney's a [dud, bust, JAG]," is unbelievable and beyond stupid.

Granted, some of the talk is stupid, but I don't consider restructuring Rosey to be stupid. Same with Rodney.

I don't think either player is the player they once were. I am not saying it's time for them to go, but in Rodney's case his role may be reduced to a level that is not consistent with his level of play. In Rosey's case two IRs is a factor. Two IRs in four years is a pretty substantial hit to his level of contribution.
 
The Patriots should negotiate an extension with Colvin that costs substantially less than the $5.5M/yr he scheduled to earn in 2008.

If he doesn't, we should look for a new LB in free agency and (provided our depth at LB permits it) cut him on the eve of the 2008 season.

Calm down. Stop hating on Rosie.
 
The chance that a player will miss games due to injury in the future is strongly correlated to whether or not that player has missed games in the past.

Some players like Brady, Manning and Favre just don't get injured due to some combination of physical attributes, playing style, and good fortune.

Others like McNabb or Cullpepper do.


You (and Colvin's agent) can argue that Colvin's two big injuries were due to bad fortune. They may have been. Or his body and playing style may make him vulnerable.

GMs, almost all of whom have been burned by injuries in the past, are going to see that he has started less than half his games over the previous five years. They will offer Colvin significantly less money as a consequence.
 
GMs, almost all of whom have been burned by injuries in the past, are going to see that he has started less than half his games over the previous five years. They will offer Colvin significantly less money as a consequence.

Why do you focus on starts and not the fact that Colvin has not actually missed a game in over 3 1/2 seasons??

Let's say that 2000 players have played at least one game this season. How many of them have played in 59 straight games?? I would venture a minority.
 
Why do you focus on starts and not the fact that Colvin has not actually missed a game in over 3 1/2 seasons??

Let's say that 2000 players have played at least one game this season. How many of them have played in 59 straight games?? I would venture a minority.

I don't think the stats are too misleading. When Rosie wasn't starting in 2004, he wasn't nearly the player we expected him to be. I'm not entirely sure he was himself when he was starting in 2005.

Fundamentally a player's value must be reduced by the possibility that injuries remove him from the field or otherwise diminish his performance. Even with a history of just two major injuries, GMs would be foolish not to apply a significantly greater reduction to Rosie.

If he had two incidents of injury in which he missed a total of just 8 starts (instead of 41), this discount would be considerably smaller.
 
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