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Vegas prop bets: Does this shed some light on Gronk's injury?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Jan 26, 2012.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    You guys might laugh at this, but basically if anyone out there knows about Gronk's injury, it would be Vegas. They have access to many, many people within organizations who tell them things in confidence. They usually would not put themselves at risk in the fear that some "sharp bettors" would hammer a bet because they know something that Vegas does not.

    That said, take this for what it's worth:

    For the prop for the first player to score a touchdown in the game, Rob Gronkowski leads all others with 11/2 odds, and that same prop for first Patriots TD is also Gronk at 11/4 odds.

    The over under numbers:

    Total Receptions: 6
    Total Yards: 82.5

    I also should note that it costs more to bet the over on both of these, implying that it is more likely the over will happen, or at least implying that's how the money is coming in.

    Source: bovada.lv
  2. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Also, for all of the Giants fans who are screaming on the message boards that Gronk won't play or be over 25%, I'm guessing they wouldn't dare put money on their self-assured "medical knowledge."
  3. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    If Gronk catches 6 passes for 82 yards, that's a solid day's work. I'd be nervous if they took it off the board.
  4. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    That's because for all of their phony NY bravado (is there any other NY type?), they're scared sh!tless of him.
  5. illthrill

    illthrill Rookie

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    I'd be scared a him too.
  6. captain insano

    captain insano Rookie

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    #11 Jersey

    does anybody really doubt that gronk will play? hes playin.
  7. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    We heard the same crappola after Brady sprained his ankle vs Pitt in 2001. That worked out well.

    Gronk is playing.
  8. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    If there's any fanbase in the league that should respect Gronk, it's the Giants'. Think of who used to play TE for them.
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  9. pdangle

    pdangle Rookie

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    Not to rain on the parade, but those prop bets are a bit deficient for this analysis as you CANNOT bet AGAINST those odds listed as you would do to take advantage of it.

    If you could, "Vegas" would be a lot more careful with that particular listing, I'm sure.

    These types of multi outcome prop bets have one of the biggest house edges in all wagerdom. Any bet you cannot take either side should be questioned. And, voila, if you take the time to sum the total of all outcomes you can bet on, it will usually end up at like 85% when obviously it should be 100%. The part missing is house edge. Didn't you ever wonder why no one bets 1Million against the TB Bucs from winning the SB at the start of the season at 50-1 against and make $20k?
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  10. jbb9s

    jbb9s Rookie

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    not how it works.
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  11. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Michael Matthews?
  12. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    You are incorrect. This applies only to the first td prop but not to catches and yards. The prop bets on catches and yards have a vig just like picking spreads but over and under give only two possible outcomes. You could bet on the under for catches and yards and double your money, minus the vig. You are talking about a futures bet with the Bucs example, although you could bet over\under on their win total if you had inside information.
  13. zoostation

    zoostation Rookie

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    Isn't it technically New Jersey bravado? :cool:
  14. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    LOL - you got me there. Let's just say the entire tri-state area (NY,NJ,CT) bravado.
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2012
  15. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Revis Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

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    X2. Of course he is going to play
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