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Let me add that if 90% of the betting is truly on the Pats, prepare for some disappointment on Sunday. I've seen this happen about a thousand times. Usually Vegas insiders know something that we don't, or they simply won't get caught up in an inevitable outcome and coolly realize that either team can win the game. Honestly, I expect the spread to swing back the other way before kickoff, as a lot of gamblers will now see a value opportunity in taking the Jets +3. I bet the Pats are 1.5-2 point favorites by kickoff.
I would take the Patriots outright, but laying 3 on the road is pretty steep, especially when you factor in the silent snap counts and insanely pumped up stadium. I think the Jets are the better play at Pats -3, while the Pats were definitely the better play at +1 on Sunday. From that point, I see an overreaction somewhere between Pats -1.5 and now, at Pats -2.5 - -3.
Lost in all this was an absolutely dominating defensive performance by the Jets against a good Ravens team. Sure, they gave up a few big plays, but those were just emphasized because the defense was so good for most of the game.
My prediction for this one (on a neutral field)
Sanchez goes for around 13-24, 175, a TD and a pick, and the Jets drive into the red zone a few times. Sanchez sucks, but the Jets will protect him extremely well and they'll run the ball decently. Whether they can finish off a full offensive drive or two and put at least a 10 on the board from those will be the X factor. I expect the Jets to score a couple of field goals from good field position. The Jets will score between 12-20, depending on the Jets ability to open up the passing game by putting up some big rushing plays.
Brady is the best out there, but there's no magic wand for this type of blitzing pressure. He'll obviously go to Welker as much as possible, but Wes is still about 80%. I think Wes puts up 75-85 yards but will be contained for mostly short gains. Wilson/Cromartie will focus on limiting yardage rather than pointlessly trying to defend the pass. Moss will likely get shut down by Revis, as solid, non-wishful thinking, history suggests. The Pats will score 10 points automatically because their offense is too good not to. The x-factor here is how many big plays (TDs and first downs) will the Patriots be able to gain using Gronk, Hernandez, (possibly Edelman), Tate, and Faulk. Expect the Pats to score between 16-24, depending on their 3-7 options.
So I put the Pats mean score at 20, and the Jets at 16. When you factor in the home field crowd, noise factor, and desperation from the Jets, I'd give them about three points. If I were betting on this game, I'd take the Patriots, but at no more than one point laid down.
I would take the Patriots outright, but laying 3 on the road is pretty steep, especially when you factor in the silent snap counts and insanely pumped up stadium. I think the Jets are the better play at Pats -3, while the Pats were definitely the better play at +1 on Sunday. From that point, I see an overreaction somewhere between Pats -1.5 and now, at Pats -2.5 - -3.
Lost in all this was an absolutely dominating defensive performance by the Jets against a good Ravens team. Sure, they gave up a few big plays, but those were just emphasized because the defense was so good for most of the game.
My prediction for this one (on a neutral field)
Sanchez goes for around 13-24, 175, a TD and a pick, and the Jets drive into the red zone a few times. Sanchez sucks, but the Jets will protect him extremely well and they'll run the ball decently. Whether they can finish off a full offensive drive or two and put at least a 10 on the board from those will be the X factor. I expect the Jets to score a couple of field goals from good field position. The Jets will score between 12-20, depending on the Jets ability to open up the passing game by putting up some big rushing plays.
Brady is the best out there, but there's no magic wand for this type of blitzing pressure. He'll obviously go to Welker as much as possible, but Wes is still about 80%. I think Wes puts up 75-85 yards but will be contained for mostly short gains. Wilson/Cromartie will focus on limiting yardage rather than pointlessly trying to defend the pass. Moss will likely get shut down by Revis, as solid, non-wishful thinking, history suggests. The Pats will score 10 points automatically because their offense is too good not to. The x-factor here is how many big plays (TDs and first downs) will the Patriots be able to gain using Gronk, Hernandez, (possibly Edelman), Tate, and Faulk. Expect the Pats to score between 16-24, depending on their 3-7 options.
So I put the Pats mean score at 20, and the Jets at 16. When you factor in the home field crowd, noise factor, and desperation from the Jets, I'd give them about three points. If I were betting on this game, I'd take the Patriots, but at no more than one point laid down.
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