"Trajectory Trumps Tape"

[KevinFaulk-33]

If you like numbers about physical ability look at the SackSEER by Football Outsiders:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012

 

[patchick]

If you like numbers about physical ability look at the SackSEER by Football Outsiders:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012

Huh. They've revised their formula since I saw it last, so it's now much more complicated on the college productivity side -- adjusted sack rates, pass defended rates, etc. And yet...from a quick look at their results, I'm not convinced that any of that is actually improving the model's predictive power. Just for giggles, I'll try to work up a dumb-as-dirt pure measurables metric and see how the results compare.

 

[yopats]

Justis Mosqueda has some great insights as well with this Twitter account..

https://twitter.com/forcepIayers

 

[patchick]

If you like numbers about physical ability look at the SackSEER by Football Outsiders:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012

OK, I just wasted some time coming up with an ugly formula for pass rusher athletic potential based on just 6 factors: height, weight, 10-yd split time, VJ, BJ, and 3-cone time. (I weighted and combined them in various ways, e.g. giving an extra bonus to a player who is very tall and yet times well on the 3-cone.) I tuned it based on some prospects of the past, then applied it to the 13 prospects from 2012 in the SackSEER article:

Jones, Chandler
Mercilus, Whitney
Irvin, Bruce
Coples, Quinton
Curry, Vinny
Branch, Andre
Perry, Nick
McClellin, Shea
Massaquoi, Jonathan
Ingram, Melvin
Alexander, Frank
Upshaw, Courtney
Lewis, Ronnell

I then ran correlations on the 13 players' DumbMeasurables rankings (DM), SackSEER rankings (SS) and draft order rankings (DO) with their actual career sack totals through 3 seasons. The results:

DumbMeasurables correlation: .63
Draft Order correlation: .51
SackSEER correlation: -.09

Ouch. I think the lesson is that quantitative college production by pass rushers, which SackSEER works so hard to tally, just isn't a useful predictor of NFL success. (Just to be clear, actually watching college players is. For instance, Ryan Kerrigan didn't have an eye-popping DM score, but his college film showed particular skill sets, like violent hand use, which translate well to the NFL.)

 

[mayoclinic]

OK, I just wasted some time coming up with an ugly formula for pass rusher athletic potential based on just 6 factors: height, weight, 10-yd split time, VJ, BJ, and 3-cone time. (I weighted and combined them in various ways, e.g. giving an extra bonus to a player who is very tall and yet times well on the 3-cone.) I tuned it based on some prospects of the past, then applied it to the 13 prospects from 2012 in the SackSEER article:

Jones, Chandler
Mercilus, Whitney
Irvin, Bruce
Coples, Quinton
Curry, Vinny
Branch, Andre
Perry, Nick
McClellin, Shea
Massaquoi, Jonathan
Ingram, Melvin
Alexander, Frank
Upshaw, Courtney
Lewis, Ronnell

I then ran correlations on the 13 players' DumbMeasurables rankings (DM), SackSEER rankings (SS) and draft order rankings (DO) with their actual career sack totals through 3 seasons. The results:

DumbMeasurables correlation: .63
Draft Order correlation: .51
SackSEER correlation: -.09

Ouch. I think the lesson is that quantitative college production by pass rushers, which SackSEER works so hard to tally, just isn't a useful predictor of NFL success. (Just to be clear, actually watching college players is. For instance, Ryan Kerrigan didn't have an eye-popping DM score, but his college film showed particular skill sets, like violent hand use, which translate well to the NFL.)

I'm very grateful that you wasted your time on this exercise, rather than me. Thanks.

 

[patchick]

I'm very grateful that you wasted your time on this exercise, rather than me. Thanks.

Yeah, not my most productive work morning! But it was pretty informative seeing which variables factored in, and how.

FWIW, according to DumbMeasurablesTM scores J.J. Watt and Mario Williams were the two best DE prospects of the past decade. There's a big gap between Williams and the pack...and another big gap between Watt and Williams.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yeah, not my most productive work morning! But it was pretty informative seeing which variables factored in, and how.

FWIW, according to DumbMeasurablesTM scores J.J. Watt and Mario Williams were the two best DE prospects of the past decade. There's a big gap between Williams and the pack...and another big gap between Watt and Williams.

I think that of all measurables, the 3-Cone tends to be the greatest outlier - for better or worse - and one of the more useful tests, depending on the position in question. You see guys with average athleticism like Trent Murphy with great 3-Cones (6.78 at 250#), whereas guys with great speed and explosiveness like Bud Dupree have poor 3-Cones relative to their other numbers (7.40). Clowney had a fairly pedestrian 7.27 3-Cone. There aren't that many guys with really poor 3-Cones that I can think of who excel in space.

JJ Watt's 3-Cone is one of the all time amazing numbers, as far as I'm concerned. 6.88 3-Cone at 6'5" 290# is ridiculous. I can't find another player over 280# who has had a 3-Cone under 7 seconds. Some notable numbers include:

- Fletcher Cox (2012): 7.07 3C at 6'4" 298#
- Cameron Jordan (2011): 7.07 3C at 6'4" 287#
- Aaron Donald (2014): 7.11 3C at 6'1" 288#
- Nick Fairley (2011): 7.14 3C at 6'4" 291#
- Mario Williams (2006): 7.19 3C at 6'7" 295#

I can't find anyone who comes remotely close. I haven't been able to find a 3-Cone time for Julius Peppers, who was 283# coming out of North Carolina.