Tom Brady Restructures Contract - shifts $24 million

[RobertWeathers]

3 isn't 25% of 60. Did you misread that as 3-4 times per game instead of per season?

I wasn't going off Mark12's math as I think he is slightly underestimating the # of hits TB would take per season. Let me make lay out my math.

I am basing my opinion on the data below.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_QBHIT

For the sake of making this quicker, from 2011 to 2014, TB was hit once every 8 throws for an average about about 78 times per season.

In 2010, TB thew 492 times and was hit every once every 10 throws and hit 52 times.

My point is less throws mean Brady is hit less per season.

Having a bellcow RB that can make plays on his own and a D that can control the game helps achieve that.

 

[Oswlek]

I wasn't going off Mark12's math as I think he is slightly underestimating the # of hits TB would take per season. Let me make lay out my math.

I am basing my opinion on the data below.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_QBHIT

For the sake of making this quicker, from 2011 to 2014, TB was hit once every 8 throws for an average about about 78 times per season.

In 2010, TB thew 492 times and was hit every once every 10 throws and hit 52 times.

My point is less throws mean Brady is hit less per season.

Having a bellcow RB that can make plays on his own and a D that can control the game helps achieve that.

Granted, but by the numbers you listed before, the increase in hits would be closer to 15%, or 10 times per season. Obviously if one of those hits was squarely on his knee it is tragic, but otherwise one extra hit every other game isn't that significant.

The biggest benefit to having a bell cow RB wouldn't be wear and tear, it would be that his efficiency per play would likely increase. Did you isolate 2010 because it was Benny's best season? I ask because Ridley was better in 2012 so using 2010 as a baseline for hits on Tom with better running seems off base to me.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Granted, but by the numbers you listed before, the increase in hits would be closer to 15%, or 10 times per season. Obviously if one of those hits was squarely on his knee it is tragic, but otherwise one extra hit every other game isn't that significant.

Yea the numbers before my latest post were a ****tail napkin swag at my gut. I put some more finite info in it later. Based on the math, 78 minus 52 is 26 or a almost 33% less hits a year or almost 3 a game. Doesn't seem like a lot but it adds up.

The biggest benefit to having a bell cow RB wouldn't be wear and tear, it would be that his efficiency per play would likely increase. Did you isolate 2010 because it was Benny's best season? I ask because Ridley was better in 2012 so using 2010 as a baseline for hits on Tom with better running seems off base to me.

I picked 2010 b/c it seemed to me that under 500 throws a year made sense and offered a decent comparison to 2011-2014. I did look at the number of carries by the O. I didn't discern 2010 BJGE or 2012 Ridley. My assumption is that if Brady throws 7 times less a game, they will run more.

Personally, I'd like to see something like 2004 or 2006. Strong D, power running game and Brady around 450-500 throws. If its one RB or 2 really good ones I really don't care.

 

[Oswlek]

Based on the math, 78 minus 52 is 34 or a almost 33% less hits a year or almost 3 a game. Doesn't seem like a lot but it adds up.

But that involves a substantial rate difference, not just sums based on total attempts. The reason I mentioned Ridley in 2012 is it seems tenuous to suggest that running was the cause of the rate change. Simply increasing the number of attempts doesn't necessarily lead to hit rates increasing by 20%.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yep. Could involve less hurry up, solid o line,etc.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

With the most attention going to defense and the running game of late, I assumed that we're transitioning in recognition that however great we still think Brady is, the better bet is that he'll be able to use his mental gifts/knowledge of the game, along with accuracy and zip in a shorter game... alongside a stout defense and a competent running game.

This will make the Larry Fitzgerald-eyeing public crazy. It is also likely to be overturned by one move or another in the off-season, just because my casual-fan understanding is not close to really sussing out what the brain trust is doing. But it was my feeling going into this season.

Regardless of which way we go though it seems like O-Line still will need attention - getting back to a reliably top-third-of-the-league unit game for game. I would love to say Top 5, but we can't keep saying Top 5 for every position. Consistency is key for O-Line - giving the offense the chance to do its thing every game. Always trustworthy, if never dominant; that might be what we're shooting for.

Does that sound like a lot of long-developing shots downfield to you? Me neither. Can we get back to Top 5? Maybe that will be a goal this offseason. I'd love it of course. If not though... if we're the 10th best O-line in the league...? Get that 10th-best performance every game. Don't get totally punked by anybody... and "10th best" can be enough.

That is why I have been stoked to see the resilience on this year's team. Hard to tell about how that falls position by position, especially for the big uglies who are usually not featured on the TV (boo hoo I do not have all-22 tapes)... but I hope the descent-to-turnstile act has not been happening. Some weeks I only have the rare play on Red Zone to judge by and comments on Patsfans (one of the reasons I love this place).

 

[Oswlek]

When Barnwell and now Bill Simmons claim that the restructure is a harbinger of change, we can say with certainty that Brady will remain a Patriot and this was solely to free up cash flow. The concerned among the fanbase can breathe a collective sigh of relief.