Todd Helton..

[patsfan55]

That lineup is bad in that you have one the the 3 worst hitters of the starters (Coco) at the top of the lineup (you also have Helton and Drew as back-to-back lefties, which isn't good). Youk and Drew both deserve many more bats than Coco, especially Drew.

1 Drew - L
2 Lugo - R
3 Ortiz - L
4 Manny - R
5 Helton - L
6 Youk - R
7 Tek / Coco - S
8 Coco / Tek - S
9 Pedroia - R

Something like that makes much more sense. The problem is that you have so many lefties and you don't really want them back-to-back because then you invite LOOGYs (lefty one out guys) like Mike Myers into the game. So you start with Ortiz/Manny batting 3/4 (because it just works and you don't want to mess with it) and work out from there. Drew and Helton would be 2 lefties you want in your top 5 or 6 so you drop one at 5 and have the other lead off. I guess you could conceivably hit Drew 5th and Helton 7th, moving Youk to #2 behind Lugo but then you're batting a bum like Coco or Tek 6th between Drew and Helton (and I'm not sure if either of them is worse from the right - if so you'd bring in a lefty for 5-6-7).

Of course, this makes the Ortiz/Manny/Drew 3/4/5 disappear but I've never really believed Manny requires protection anyway. Also, Coco could move up if he proves that last year was an aberration (and given the finger injury I'm hoping it was).

Two other little nitpicks and I'm done: why would you want Helton in front of Drew? Drew is better and I want him getting more ABs. Also, don't count on Lester giving the Sox anything this year. The guy underwent chemo. If he gives them anything be happy, but don't plan on it.

yeah i was thinkin bout the lefty thing
but i def think coco will have a much better yr
you could see his swing and grip werent the same after the injury
i wouldnt mind havin youk second

 

[milwaukeebeers44]

According to ESPN.com, the Rockies have cut off trade talks:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2747254

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

to chime in on the "product of Coors discussion" Foley and everlong were having:

Everyone is better at home. Judging Manny or Ortiz or any player in baseball solely on his away stats isn't very fair, especially if you're comparing him to other plays home & away.

Todd Helton has obviously been helped by Coors but has proven (in the past) to be a great hitter everywhere.

Much more important than all of this though is the other thing everlong pointed out; he has suffered a sizable three year decline and has 5 years left on the deal.

I'm glad it didn't get done, especially when word came out that Colorado was only willing to kick in $36M, not the $40-45M previously reported. It seems like once Colorado got the idea that Boston might actually take him on the deal kept getting worse and worse.

I guess this means I have to put up with another year of Lowell. sigh.

 

[everlong]

I agree that everybody (generally) hits better at home but Helton's OPS is .241 points higher at Coors. That's VERY high.

Other players

Manny + .022
Papi + .011

Texas is a ballpark that is very hitter friendly.

Michael young + .134
Mark Teixeira + .116

Houston hitters ballpark

Berkman +.007

Others

Paul Konerko +.104
Bobby Abreu +.059


I can go on and on. I'm not saying Helton's a bum but his career numbers are seriously inflated by playing in Coors and he'll turn 34 this, has back issues, and is signed for 5 more years.

I'm glad they didn't do it.

 

[Foley]

And nobody is saying that Helton doesn't have a huge home/road split. But there is a big difference from a home/road split where a player is very good at home and decent on the road and a split where a player is phenominal at home and very good on the road. Helton has been the latter for most of his career, someone like Matt Holliday is an example of the former. Holliday has a career .358BA and 1.056OPS in Coors and a career .262BA and .747OPS away from it. The OPS differential of +.309 is extremely large like Heltons, but the difference is while Helton has still been able to hold his own outside of Coors, Holliday is just ok.

The fact that he hits much better at home doesn't make him a product of his stadium, it just means that his home stadium is a bandbox. A product of his stadium implies that he would be nothing better than an average hitter if he was in a neutral park, and a .900OPS is much better than average.

 

[everlong]

Top OPS all time

Babe Ruth, 1.1636
Ted Williams, 1.1155
Lou Gehrig, 1.0798
Barry Bonds, 1.0533
Albert Pujols, 1.0490
Todd Helton, 1.0404
Jimmie Foxx, 1.0376
Hank Greenberg, 1.0169
Rogers Hornsby, 1.0103
Manny Ramírez, 1.0076

I don't think he comes close to anybody on that list. So my point is although he's a solid ball player he is very over-rated due to the Coors factor.

JD Drew has a career .904 OPS, I think Helton compares to him if they both played in neutral parks.

And I'm not huge on the Drew signing given his health issues, the $/Yr, and it's a lesser contract years wise.

 

[Real World]

Theo was saved by the morons running the show in Colorado. How Colorado didn't pull the trigger is beyond me. Helton is signed through his 39th B-day at $16+ mill per. Even at half, which is what the Rockies were willing to pick up supposedly, that's a 39 year old FB who's averaged 15 homers a year at age 32 & 33. Theo is good, but he's a tad overrated.

 

[Foley]

I don't think he comes close to anybody on that list. So my point is although he's a solid ball player he is very over-rated due to the Coors factor.

JD Drew has a career .904 OPS, I think Helton compares to him if they both played in neutral parks.

And I'm not huge on the Drew signing given his health issues, the $/Yr, and it's a lesser contract years wise.

The Drew comparison is pretty accurate. Both Helton and Drew are very good hitters, Drew just hasn't had the benefit of hitting half his games in a bandbox.

As far as Helton being overrated... hes really not because no one considers him to be anywhere near those guys in terms of talent. Do you know of anyone that has called Helton one of the top 10 hitters of all time? Or considers him better than Manny Ramirez or Jimmie Foxx, or in the same breath as Ted Williams or Loe Gehrig? No one that I've ever read or talked to has said that Coors has not helped him because people know that Coors can make a very good hitter like Helton into a fantastic one.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Theo was saved by the morons running the show in Colorado. How Colorado didn't pull the trigger is beyond me. Helton is signed through his 39th B-day at $16+ mill per. Even at half, which is what the Rockies were willing to pick up supposedly, that's a 39 year old FB who's averaged 15 homers a year at age 32 & 33. Theo is good, but he's a tad overrated.

wow, kinda harsh judging theo on this since you have no idea what he was willing to agree to.

are you saying that you wouldn't take Helton if Colorado was paying half and all you were paying was Lowell and Tavarez? I know i'd jump at that. A 39 year old Helton at $8M is palatable, especially when you get him this year for $8M. for all we know these were the only terms theo would have accepted.

remember, this was all very preliminary and we would and should have never heard about if not for Colorado's dumb owner. theo would be dumb to not listen when a team comes calling (and all indications were that Colorado pushed these talks).

i figure this only goes to show that theo had his line and was unwilling to cross it. good for him.

 

[everlong]

The Drew comparison is pretty accurate. Both Helton and Drew are very good hitters, Drew just hasn't had the benefit of hitting half his games in a bandbox.

As far as Helton being overrated... hes really not because no one considers him to be anywhere near those guys in terms of talent. Do you know of anyone that has called Helton one of the top 10 hitters of all time? Or considers him better than Manny Ramirez or Jimmie Foxx, or in the same breath as Ted Williams or Loe Gehrig? No one that I've ever read or talked to has said that Coors has not helped him because people know that Coors can make a very good hitter like Helton into a fantastic one.

Some sabermetric/fantasy players would try and make a pure stats based case to say he is in that class.

We seem to more or less agree.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Some sabermetric/fantasy players would try and make a pure stats based case to say he is in that class.

We seem to more or less agree.

actually, sabermetricians would get into park factors which seperate Helton from Coors and statistically place him where he belongs.

the only people pretending that helton belongs on that previous list are Rockies fans (I was browsing a Rockies board earlier this week and they seemed to believe helton was better than Manny) and idiots on ESPN who will proclaim things like "you can't fault Helton for playing at Coors."

fantasy players i will agree on, they are scum

 

[pheenix11]

That lineup is bad in that you have one the the 3 worst hitters of the starters (Coco) at the top of the lineup (you also have Helton and Drew as back-to-back lefties, which isn't good). Youk and Drew both deserve many more bats than Coco, especially Drew.

1 Drew - L
2 Lugo - R
3 Ortiz - L
4 Manny - R
5 Helton - L
6 Youk - R
7 Tek / Coco - S
8 Coco / Tek - S
9 Pedroia - R

Something like that makes much more sense. The problem is that you have so many lefties and you don't really want them back-to-back because then you invite LOOGYs (lefty one out guys) like Mike Myers into the game. So you start with Ortiz/Manny batting 3/4 (because it just works and you don't want to mess with it) and work out from there. Drew and Helton would be 2 lefties you want in your top 5 or 6 so you drop one at 5 and have the other lead off. I guess you could conceivably hit Drew 5th and Helton 7th, moving Youk to #2 behind Lugo but then you're batting a bum like Coco or Tek 6th between Drew and Helton (and I'm not sure if either of them is worse from the right - if so you'd bring in a lefty for 5-6-7).

Of course, this makes the Ortiz/Manny/Drew 3/4/5 disappear but I've never really believed Manny requires protection anyway. Also, Coco could move up if he proves that last year was an aberration (and given the finger injury I'm hoping it was).

Two other little nitpicks and I'm done: why would you want Helton in front of Drew? Drew is better and I want him getting more ABs. Also, don't count on Lester giving the Sox anything this year. The guy underwent chemo. If he gives them anything be happy, but don't plan on it.

How about a more realistic lineup?

1 Lugo R
2 Youkilis R
3 Ortiz L
4 Manny R
5 Helton L
6 Pena R
7 Varitek S
8 Pedroia R
9 Coco S

DL Drew

 

[everlong]

actually, sabermetricians would get into park factors which seperate Helton from Coors and statistically place him where he belongs.

the only people pretending that helton belongs on that previous list are Rockies fans (I was browsing a Rockies board earlier this week and they seemed to believe helton was better than Manny) and idiots on ESPN who will proclaim things like "you can't fault Helton for playing at Coors."

fantasy players i will agree on, they are scum

You are correct the hardcore Saber guys will factor in ballparks, the fringe ones won't. The hardcore will also up his stock because of Pitches/AB which is a big Theo stat, and why he likes Helton and Drew.