Ring 6
PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2021 Weekly Picks Winner
2022 Weekly Picks Winner
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2004
- Messages
- 63,761
- Reaction score
- 14,113
umm, this is the entire point behind DPAR and DVOA. perhaps you should read up on it.
I'll paste it again:
THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on SITUATION. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on 3rd-and-4 are worth more than five yards on 1st-and-10 and much more than five yards on 3rd-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent.
Theo is smart enough to know luck from skill
You are conflicting with yourself all over the page.
What does DVOE or DPAR have to do with the drive by the Steelers?
Context does not mean complex mathematical model. Just what you posted shows the potential tainting of the numbers by numerous assumptions.
HOW MUCH do you weight for down and distance? How much do you weight for red zone? How accurate is the adjustment for quality of opponent? Who assesses quality of opponent. If quality of opponent is calculated by the exact same system you have a conflict.
The point is that football isnt player on a computer. If Laurence Maroney rips off an 80 yard run on his next carry, his ypc goes up 0.6 per rush. Do you really think that his season improves from 4.3 being a bit above average, to 4.9 being excellent based on that one play? What if he had done that the LAST play of the Pitt game when it was already over? This is the problem with statistics. You cannot judge a game where 11 players need to make plays against other individuals solely by accumulating the average result of all of their other plays. This is why teams focus on MATCHUPS, not statistics.