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the difference in the defense between this week and last


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The only statistic that MATTERED then was "stopped on 4th down". Period.


if you are trying to model what is likely to happen in the future, then you are 100% wrong.
 
to people who don't think the statheads have any idea what they are doing, or who don't understand the "nuances of the NFL". go read this article. some excerpts from the guys at FO:

TDZ120707-1.gif


Diehl with the Fold

Early in the second quarter, the Giants started a drive at the Bears’ 32-yard line. Derrick Ward took a handoff, swept around left end, and gained 31 yards. It was a simple play from a two-tight end I-formation (Figure 1, the right wide receiver and two defenders aren’t shown), and there was only one wrinkle in the blocking scheme: Left tackle David Diehl and tight end Jeremy Shockey executed a fold block on the left side to help free Ward.

To understand why this play was so successful, let’s look at each blocker’s role, first in the design of the play, then in the way it was executed in Chicago.

Right Tight End: Blocks the defender covering him, prevents penetration. Kevin Boss does an adequate job stopping Adewale Ogunleye.
Figure 1: Derrick Ward Sweep

Right Tackle: Reach-blocks the 3-technique tackle and prevents him from pursuing down the line or occupying the right guard. Done and done.

Right Guard: Combo-blocks the 3-technique defender until the right tackle controls him, then pursues the backside linebacker on the second level. Chris Snee does his job well. He barely has to chip Darwin Walker (99) because right tackle Kareem McKenzie easily controls him. Because Lance Briggs (55) shoots a backside gap, Snee has no one to block and seeks out the safety.

Center: Reach-blocks the nose tackle. Another fine job by the Giants line.

Left guard: Combo-blocks with the center, then attacks the middle linebacker. Rich Seubert climbs to the second level, then catches a break when Brian Urlacher (54) briefly slips. Seubert walls off the slowed Urlacher.

Left tackle: Loops around the tight end, then either kicks out the force defender or logs the first defender to the inside. OK, now in English. Diehl is supposed to read the situation once he wraps around Shockey. The force defender is the defensive back aligned just outside the tight end when there is no wide receiver to one side of the field — Tod McBride in this case. Under normal circumstances, Diehl would smother him and try to push him to the sidelines. If McBride crashed into the backfield before Diehl arrived, Diehl would run to the hole, look inside, and block any linebacker trying to pursue. Something strange happened on this play: McBride froze and looked inside at the snap, even though all of the action was flowing outside. He probably had man coverage responsibilities on Shockey and got mixed up when the tight end released to block. The momentary confusion made him a sitting duck for Diehl.

Tight end: Fold-blocks and seals off the play-side defensive end. Shockey is a very good blocker, but he only does a so-so job on this play. Mark Anderson (97) gets inside him and penetrates. Shockey’s block takes Anderson far enough inside that the defender cannot redirect Ward.

Fullback: Lead blocks left. Takes on any defender who penetrates, or logs the first linebacker in pursuit, or kicks out any late arriving defenders to the outside, or races through the hole for a downfield block. Fullbacks have a lot of decisions to make, and Madison Hedge**** makes the right one here. With McBride caught inside, Bears linebacker Hunter Hillenmeyer alertly flows toward the sideline in an effort to force Ward back inside. That makes him Hedge****’s man, and Hedge**** makes a solid block.

Running back: Take the handoff and climb to the line quickly, aiming for a hole about a yard off the tight end’s left shoulder. Read the blocks of the fullback and left tackle to determine the cut. Ward executes properly and makes the right read, though the blocking is so good that he cannot go wrong. He executes a stiff arm at the safety level and high-wire’s the sideline for additional yardage.

Amazingly, Ward scored a two-yard touchdown three plays later on the exact same play. Same formation. Same fold block with Shockey and Diehl. Once again, Diehl and Hedge**** opened a big hole by cutting off the force defender and the pursuit linebacker. The only reason the plays didn’t look exactly alike on the highlight show was that Ward stopped running after two yards.

There are several reasons why this play worked so well for the Giants. One is so obvious that I won’t mention it until the next section; see if you can spot it now. Another is the defensive call by the Bears: Briggs and Urlacher were both crashing gaps at the snap, taking Briggs out of the play and making Urlacher an easy mark for a second level block. Throw in some execution lapses (Urlacher’s stumble, McBride’s hesitation) and you have the recipe for easy yardage.
 
I don't think he does. Hell, who needs to watch the games when you can simply look at the statistics and determine whether or not a defense played well or a quarterback is a hall of famer.

Vrabel was raping that tackle on every play. He didn't get to him, but Ben knew he was coming every play which was huge for us.

Someone has already said it. It was the offense that won the game for us. The defense is better than average, they have just have some wear and tear because of age.
 
if you are trying to model what is likely to happen in the future, then you are 100% wrong.

Are you yet another one here who can't grasp the simple concepts of "Game plan" and "situational planning"?
 
Are you yet another one here who can't grasp the simple concepts of "Game plan" and "situational planning"?

I'm 100% confident that the "gameplan" didn't say "let's let them drive to the 1, then try to stop them"
 
I'm 100% confident that the "gameplan" didn't say "let's let them drive to the 1, then try to stop them"

I'm 100% confident that the "game plan" did say something along the line of "we've got a lead, so let them move the ball while taking up clock time, and just keep them from getting back into the game."

It's called yielding territory and 'gaining' time.
 
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I'm 100% confident that the "game plan" did say something along the line of "we've got a lead, so let them move the ball while taking up clock time, and just keep them from getting back into the game."

is that what it said in the first half too?
 
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is that what it said in the first half too?

That wasn't the argument regarding the first half or the post of yours that I was responding to, now was it? Will you be moving the goalposts for the remainder of this thread now?
 
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Except in the red zone. There, it was outstanding.

That's a total reversal from earlier in the season.

the good red zone defense was mostly due to variance and b/c our offense played so well.

in the first quarter, we held them to a FG. obv good.

in the 4th, we held them on downs on 3rd and goal from the 1, which was great, but on average the Steelers score a TD there. we can't be putting ourslves in that spot.

then later on, we held them on downs, but this was mainly due to us having a big lead (thanks to our offense). they normally get a FG there
 
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in the 4th, we held them on downs on 3rd and goal from the 1, which was great, but on average the Steelers score a TD there. we can't be putting ourslves in that spot.

God, you're obtuse. It was 31-13 with less than half a quarter to go. Are you honestly telling us there was something to be concerned about playing the soft zone and forcing them to use time and plays? That is de rigeur among all 32 NFL teams in that spot. Jeezus....
 
Vrabel was raping that tackle on every play. He didn't get to him, but Ben knew he was coming every play which was huge for us.

Someone has already said it. It was the offense that won the game for us. The defense is better than average, they have just have some wear and tear because of age.

But he didn't have any sacks. He must have sucked.

Our defense was terrible, we only won by 21.

Do you realize with our lack of run defense another 240 yards rushing in three possessions would have tied the game??!! (starting at the 20).
 
But he didn't have any sacks. He must have sucked.

Our defense was terrible, we only won by 21.

Do you realize with our lack of run defense another 240 yards rushing in three possessions would have tied the game??!! (starting at the 20).

Don't forget about the variance that read the 4th down play and stopped Ward. It's all about the variance....
 
Don't forget about the variance that read the 4th down play and stopped Ward. It's all about the variance....

Now I purposely avoided that.

You are a bad man.:rofl:
 
as long as "losers" include Theo Epstein, aka the guy who just led the local baseball team to it's 2nd World Series in 4 years using "stats" as bedrock for his analysis.

I took you off ignore too see what kind of idiotic nonsense you would spout, and you did not disappoint.

your ignorance is only matched by your idiocy

OK, so let me get this straight. You think that Theo Epstein makes his decisions with his nose buried in a stat book, and his baseball knowledge, scouting, input from Francona, opinions about attitude and character of players, and assessment of how those stats came about are meaningless.
Is that your point? Theo Epstein is a good fantasy baseball player who happens to have decision making power for the red Sox?
 
as long as "losers" include Theo Epstein, aka the guy who just led the local baseball team to it's 2nd World Series in 4 years using "stats" as bedrock for his analysis.

I took you off ignore too see what kind of idiotic nonsense you would spout, and you did not disappoint.

your ignorance is only matched by your idiocy

It is telling that you decide to throw an insult while totally ignoring all of the facts that show your statistic only view is a poor one.
 
if you are trying to model what is likely to happen in the future, then you are 100% wrong.

If you are trying to statistical model what is likely ot happen in the future, the model will rarely lead to the drive getting to the 1 to begin with.
Furthermore if you are trying to statistically model what would happen on a drive when the Pats werent ahead by 18 with less than 19 minutes to go, this drvie would not be relevant.

You HAVE TO realize that the way you play defense up 18 with 19 minutes to go is based on that score and time. You HAVE TO realize that taking away the plays that would lead to a 6minute drive in that situations isn't something the Pats would want to do. Let me put it this way. With 19 minutes left and an 18 point lead the Pats chose to play a scheme of defense that resulted in the Steelers driving for 6 minutes to get to the 1. THE PATRIOTS CHANCES OF WINNING THE GAME INCREASED BECAUSE OF THAT DRIVE.
 
in the 4th, we held them on downs on 3rd and goal from the 1, which was great, but on average the Steelers score a TD there. we can't be putting ourslves in that spot.

God, you're obtuse. It was 31-13 with less than half a quarter to go. Are you honestly telling us there was something to be concerned about playing the soft zone and forcing them to use time and plays? That is de rigeur among all 32 NFL teams in that spot. Jeezus....

On average the Steelers dont get to the 1 to begin with. On average the score about 1.5 points on that drive. (The average of what they did all day)
On average we win the game by 21 points.

But of course, we should ignore that PLAYERS made those PLAYS inside the 5, and only judge them on the plays in that drvie that we didn't like.

On average every RB in the NFL gains over 2.5 yards per carry.
So, since statistics are the key in winning football games, I think we should run every play because on average we will get a first down every time, and score on every drive.
 
to people who don't think the statheads have any idea what they are doing, or who don't understand the "nuances of the NFL". go read this article. some excerpts from the guys at FO:

TDZ120707-1.gif


Diehl with the Fold

Early in the second quarter, the Giants started a drive at the Bears’ 32-yard line. Derrick Ward took a handoff, swept around left end, and gained 31 yards. It was a simple play from a two-tight end I-formation (Figure 1, the right wide receiver and two defenders aren’t shown), and there was only one wrinkle in the blocking scheme: Left tackle David Diehl and tight end Jeremy Shockey executed a fold block on the left side to help free Ward.

To understand why this play was so successful, let’s look at each blocker’s role, first in the design of the play, then in the way it was executed in Chicago.

Right Tight End: Blocks the defender covering him, prevents penetration. Kevin Boss does an adequate job stopping Adewale Ogunleye.
Figure 1: Derrick Ward Sweep

Right Tackle: Reach-blocks the 3-technique tackle and prevents him from pursuing down the line or occupying the right guard. Done and done.

Right Guard: Combo-blocks the 3-technique defender until the right tackle controls him, then pursues the backside linebacker on the second level. Chris Snee does his job well. He barely has to chip Darwin Walker (99) because right tackle Kareem McKenzie easily controls him. Because Lance Briggs (55) shoots a backside gap, Snee has no one to block and seeks out the safety.

Center: Reach-blocks the nose tackle. Another fine job by the Giants line.

Left guard: Combo-blocks with the center, then attacks the middle linebacker. Rich Seubert climbs to the second level, then catches a break when Brian Urlacher (54) briefly slips. Seubert walls off the slowed Urlacher.

Left tackle: Loops around the tight end, then either kicks out the force defender or logs the first defender to the inside. OK, now in English. Diehl is supposed to read the situation once he wraps around Shockey. The force defender is the defensive back aligned just outside the tight end when there is no wide receiver to one side of the field — Tod McBride in this case. Under normal circumstances, Diehl would smother him and try to push him to the sidelines. If McBride crashed into the backfield before Diehl arrived, Diehl would run to the hole, look inside, and block any linebacker trying to pursue. Something strange happened on this play: McBride froze and looked inside at the snap, even though all of the action was flowing outside. He probably had man coverage responsibilities on Shockey and got mixed up when the tight end released to block. The momentary confusion made him a sitting duck for Diehl.

Tight end: Fold-blocks and seals off the play-side defensive end. Shockey is a very good blocker, but he only does a so-so job on this play. Mark Anderson (97) gets inside him and penetrates. Shockey’s block takes Anderson far enough inside that the defender cannot redirect Ward.

Fullback: Lead blocks left. Takes on any defender who penetrates, or logs the first linebacker in pursuit, or kicks out any late arriving defenders to the outside, or races through the hole for a downfield block. Fullbacks have a lot of decisions to make, and Madison Hedge**** makes the right one here. With McBride caught inside, Bears linebacker Hunter Hillenmeyer alertly flows toward the sideline in an effort to force Ward back inside. That makes him Hedge****’s man, and Hedge**** makes a solid block.

Running back: Take the handoff and climb to the line quickly, aiming for a hole about a yard off the tight end’s left shoulder. Read the blocks of the fullback and left tackle to determine the cut. Ward executes properly and makes the right read, though the blocking is so good that he cannot go wrong. He executes a stiff arm at the safety level and high-wire’s the sideline for additional yardage.

Amazingly, Ward scored a two-yard touchdown three plays later on the exact same play. Same formation. Same fold block with Shockey and Diehl. Once again, Diehl and Hedge**** opened a big hole by cutting off the force defender and the pursuit linebacker. The only reason the plays didn’t look exactly alike on the highlight show was that Ward stopped running after two yards.

There are several reasons why this play worked so well for the Giants. One is so obvious that I won’t mention it until the next section; see if you can spot it now. Another is the defensive call by the Bears: Briggs and Urlacher were both crashing gaps at the snap, taking Briggs out of the play and making Urlacher an easy mark for a second level block. Throw in some execution lapses (Urlacher’s stumble, McBride’s hesitation) and you have the recipe for easy yardage.

How does a post analyzing a play have anything to do with arguing that reading stats is how you assess football?
Furthermore how does watching the film of a play and typing what each player did indicate any knowledge or insight?
Thats like saying if I can read War and Peace and understand the words, I am an expert at writing.
 
OK, so let me get this straight. You think that Theo Epstein makes his decisions with his nose buried in a stat book, and his baseball knowledge, scouting, input from Francona, opinions about attitude and character of players, and assessment of how those stats came about are meaningless.
Is that your point? Theo Epstein is a good fantasy baseball player who happens to have decision making power for the red Sox?

no, I never said that the Red Sox are run "only" on stats. I have said various times that a mix of the subjective (scouting) and the objective (stats) will produce the best analysis. I have linked to various articles which say the same. however, stats do form a very healthy part of their decision analysis.

but your fear and loathing of stats have led you to believe that that's what I mean.

in either case, saying "stats are for losers" is dumb.
 
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