State of the Teams: Buffalo Bills

[Deus Irae]

Two down, and far too many more to go. Today, it's the Buffalo Bills.

Record last season: 7-9

Major departures: Jason Peters

Major Additions: T.O.

Free Agent signings: Seth McKinney, Dominick Rhodes, Geoff Hangrtner


Recent History:

Once a proud team under coach Marv Levy, the Bills had fallen by the wayside and were floundering badly. To reverse this, the 134 year old Ralph Wilson hired the 123 year old Marv Levy to be GM and help turn things around. It seems to have worked, as the Bills have seemingly begun the climb back to respectability, although Marv has once again moved on. Three straight 7-9 seasons is not the right track to be on, though, injuries or not. Last year, quarterback Trent Edwards impressed some people with his abilities, while others remain skeptical. A lot of this has to do with the Bills getting off to a 5-1 start before falling by the wayside. Some of it has to do with the fact that Buffalo didn't beat any team with a winning record last season. With an offensive line that continued to struggle and a defense that couldn't get to the quarterback, Buffalo's season was once again doomed to mediocrity.


Off season news:

Rumor has it that Buffalo signed some guy to play wide receiver for them. It's not really known who that player is, but it's clear that he's the shy, retiring type. Offsetting his arrival was the departure of Jason Peters, considered by many to be among the best left tackles in the game. This may be true, but you can't prove it by pointing to last season, and the Bills were able to get excellent compensation for their unhappy former player. The drafting of a (hopefully) quality pass rusher also has Bills fans thinking happy thoughts as training camp nears.


Outlook:

Every year looks like it's going to be the year Buffalo finally starts putting it together, and every year turns out to be another disappointment. 2009 is setting up in just that fashion. The team now has a 'star' in T.O., but that 'star' is fading due to age, and a slow start could lead to major problems in the locker room. The pass rushing savior could be just the energy boost the defense needs, or he could be this seasons Gholston. Schoebel missed 10 games last season, but he may be done anyway. 6.5 sacks in 2007 and just 1 last season is not a promising line if you're hoping for a Schoebel revival. Marshawn Lynch will be watching the first few games from the pine as a result of off-the-field problems.


Prediction:

If Edwards is for real, T.O. is back to being T.O., Schoebel is reborn and everything breaks right for Buffalo, the Bills could contend for a wild card berth this season. I have no expectation of that happening, however. Between T.O.'s aging, Schoebel's play tailing off, Lynch missing games against the Patriots, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Miami to start the season off and the need to rely on rookies and **** Jauron's coaching, I just don't see this team competing this season. Throw in a seemingly difficult schedule, and even another 7-9 season seems too much to ask for. On the positive side, if Miami and the Jets both struggle as I think they could, 7-9 just might be good enough for #2 in the division if the Bills can get there.


P.S.: If anyone would like to breakdown other NFL teams, please feel free to do so. A major change in circumstances has insured that there's just no way for me to break down every team before the season starts. And remember, things can change between now and the end of training camp!

 

[Ring 6]

You're an idiot. You have no idea what you are talking about. That was the worst analysis I have ever seen.

Just wanted to make you feel comfortable and get the type of resposnes you've gotten to your other State of the Teams threads. Hopefully, I've summarized the troll posting so that they can not write anything.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You're an idiot. You have no idea what you are talking about. That was the worst analysis I have ever seen.

Just wanted to make you feel comfortable and get the type of resposnes you've gotten to your other State of the Teams threads. Hopefully, I've summarized the troll posting so that they can not write anything.

Hope springs eternal...

Buffalo overspent to build their O-line a couple years back, now those players are gone and they're trying to approach the O-line with more budget awareness - if anything, I expect this line will be better once they've had a few games to get inside each other's heads. That mystery WR got top WR money, now we'll see if he's in that ballpark anymore. I've said it before, so why not here...the Buffalo D-line is the weak spot on the roster.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

The Bills are hopeless.

 

[Patjew]

I predict that the Bills will finish ahead of Miami.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

The good:
They should still have the best Special Teams. Rookie first round pick Aaron Maybin is a good pass rusher. He projects better than Orakpo. Lee Evans can beat double coverage.

The Bad: The Oline was bad last season. That unit hasn't been upgraded. They've moved some pieces around. Lankston Walker will get to protect Trent Edwards blind side. That means Fitzpatrick will eventually play for an injured Trent Edwards. According to FO Almanac 2009, TO lined up behind Patrick Crayton so the defensive backs couldn't jam him. He couldn't beat them on his own. He is still a threat close to the end zone.

Bottom Line:
If they get up on teams they should be able to run the ball pretty well. However, the defense may have trouble holding the lead. It depends on the still unknown pass rush. If they fall behind they will have trouble getting back into the ball game because of poor pass protection. The Cellar in the AFC East is a battle between the Bills and Jets.

 

[jmt57]

For those that missed it, more on the Bills here: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/249971-buffalo-bills-2009-preview.html


Box, I'm curious why you think the Bills defense will be their biggest problem rather than their offense? Last year the Buffalo offense ranked 14th in both yards per game an points scored - very average, but nothing horrible. In fact they were ahead of the Jets in both those categories. By contrast the Bills offense ranked 25th in yardage and 23rd in points scored. Granted Terrell Owens should open things up for Lee Evans and Marshawn Walker, but I'm still having a hard time envisioning them as anything more than middle of the pack on offense. Meanwhile their defense gets Aaron Schobel back, so I would think their defense would be better than their offense. Or am I overlooking something here?

 

[Calciumee]

I think the Bills are a 'will they, won't they' team (like previous seasons).

I don't believe anyone can predict their season too detailed.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

For those that missed it, more on the Bills here: http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/249971-buffalo-bills-2009-preview.html


Box, I'm curious why you think the Bills defense will be their biggest problem rather than their offense? Last year the Buffalo offense ranked 14th in both yards per game an points scored - very average, but nothing horrible. In fact they were ahead of the Jets in both those categories. By contrast the Bills offense ranked 25th in yardage and 23rd in points scored. Granted Terrell Owens should open things up for Lee Evans and Marshawn Walker, but I'm still having a hard time envisioning them as anything more than middle of the pack on offense. Meanwhile their defense gets Aaron Schobel back, so I would think their defense would be better than their offense. Or am I overlooking something here?

While it can be argued Jauron and his staff don't know what they're doing, I take BB's respect for Jauron at face value and look to understand why they might choose to do the things they have done:

1. O-line:
-- Buffalo drafted my #1 OG/OC choice (Rd. 1) in this draft, he played pretty well against B.J. Raji in the Senior Bowl and he demonstrated more mobility than people expected of him, though Buffalo doesn't move it's O-line nearly as much as NE does. He's been working at LG to replace a $50M free agent signing who Buffalo has released (follow the money, expensive out, inexpensive in).
-- Buffalo also picked up Oregon's LT (Rd. 2) and have moved him inside to RG where his short arms aren't as much a liability. That's two tough, strong, nasty, Day One rookies inside at Guard in place of the high priced Free Agents Buffalo went after 3 or so years ago when they started rebuilding.
-- For reasonable money, Buffalo picked up a new Free Agent Center off Carolina's roster - Carolina runs the ball (nudge, nudge, wink, wink), plus re-signed/signed another pair of solid journeyman OL.
-- The interior of the Buffalo OL is brand new, the anchor is a veteran from a run first team, and the two rookies were highly thought of by draftniks who follow OL.
-- You add Dom Rhodes to Lynch and Jackson and now Buffalo's run game looks healthier than it had (granted on paper, but we know what they had; see NE @ Buffalo wind game, 2008). The new LT played LT in place of Peters, Buf knew what they were getting and they didn't stampede after a LT in the draft, instead they focused on the interior.
-- No big names on the OL, where have we seen that approach?

2. DL: They drafted Maybin, and we're not even sure he's not going to be used as a rush LB instead. They extended Stroud. A healthy Schobel is a plus, but Schobel is also getting some miles on him, Buffalo's D-line is essentially unchanged and they struggled with depth the past three seasons.

3. Passing game:
-- Terrell Owens is the big name, it's a one year deal so he'll fly true and give them his best on and off the field.
-- The sneaky thing they did was draft TE Shawn Nelson, who is a pretty darned good receiving TE with excellent speed, but he's also the kid who pancaked the dred Rey Maualuga at the Senior Bowl (he ate Rey's lunch), so we see them bring in someone to stretch the seam while Evans is flying upfield and Owens is clearing the intermediate routes - and remember how a good TE is a QB's best friend.
-- I think the O-line will protect Edwards just fine, so that receiving corps isn't better by a factor of Owens alone, there's now a TE with Watson-like speed and better hands, who isn't a prima dona in the run game.

4. LB:
-- Maybin is athletic enough to develop as a LB.
-- They also signed a Free Agent LB and drafted a SS/LB tweener who happens to be just the right size for their LB corps and can help cover Welker and the TEs.
-- This wasn't that bad a group before, Crowell is gone, but the unit may be just a bit stronger on paper.

5. QB - J.P. Losman is gone. Addition by subtraction.

6. DB: Buffalo re-signed or signed four DBs in FA, and drafted four DBs (counting the tweener SS/LB), they are pressuring Whitner and Simpson to step up or step away. Their CB pool isn't too bad, and the S pool just got very competitive.

7. Same kicking game, Oy!

Buffalo's defense, when healthy, has been competitive and scrappy, it's only when they get down into the depth chart that they dry up, and that's with Safeties who've been underachieving by the coaching staff's expectations. Other than not addressing a depth concern on the DL, they will be tough again.

Where Buffalo put it's greatest effort is on offense - why? NE's scoring machine. Bufflao is trying to build a unit that can keep the score closer. They spent less money on the O-line, and once the dead money mistakes of the past are erased, may be able to afford better weapons at DE, WR, and DT - all big money positions. They rebuilt as much as they could afford to in one year with an eye toward NE's offense, if Jauron can get another year to try and bring in better DE/DT depth, we may have a nice fight series to watch.