Earlier in the season I had Dwyer as a possible first round pick for us, but not now, for several reasons:
1. I want the pass rush addressed first. I'd much rather see Greg Hardy or Derrick Morgan in the first round (unless Rolando McClain somehow is available), and possibly another rush 3-4 OLB (Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes or Jeremy Beal) in the 2nd.
2. Like you, I don't see RB being adequate first round value.
3. I still like Dwyer (a lot) and wouldn't be at all unhappy to see him on the Pats, but I like Ryan Mathews even better. He's a much better blocker, better receiver out of the backfield, and has better acceleration and home run capability.
My ideal draft right now would be something like this:
1. McClain, Hardy or Morgan.
2a. Hardy, Morgan or possibly Everson Griffen if McClain is taken in the first. Otherwise Kindle, Hughes or Beal.
2b. An OL such as Mike Iupati (OG), Maurkice Pouncey (OG/C) or Gabe Carmini (RT).
2c. Ryan Mathews. This might need to be 2b, with OL being 2c.
3. Trade into the 3rd round to get one of the 3-4 DE prospects. There are a lot of good ones, so someone will be available in the early 3rd round. There's going to be very little difference between the late 1st and early 3rd round with all of the depth in this draft. Possibilities include Lawrence Marsh, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Corey Wootton, and Vince Oghobasse. Any of those guys could go late 1st or 2nd round, but one or more could slip. Add Arthur Jones if his injury somehow causes him to slip.