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- Sep 13, 2004
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It's a common complaint that the standard point-value chart for draft picks doesn't reflect the new contract-length provisions. So I started thinking...how should it look now? It's not as simple as a 6-year-max slot being 1.5 times as valuable as a 4-year-max at the same point in the draft. For one thing, the likelihood that a team would have ever demanded a long contract decreases the deeper you get into the draft. So, e.g., the ratio of a 6th-round pick to a 7th-rounder hasn't really changed at all. Plus many people think the familiar chart overvalues the top handful of picks to begin with.
Here's one pass at a revision. I've multiplied the top 16 (6-year) slots by a factor weighted to their rank. OP = old point value, NP = new, RANK = draft slot (#1, #2, etc.):
NP = OP + (.015 X RANK)
For picks 17-32
NP = OP X 1.1
All old values still hold for round 2 on.
The result is a slower drop in values to 16, a small cliff before 17-32, and another small cliff before 33.
I realize that probably reads like gibberish, but I think the resulting chart looks like an improvement:
Here's one pass at a revision. I've multiplied the top 16 (6-year) slots by a factor weighted to their rank. OP = old point value, NP = new, RANK = draft slot (#1, #2, etc.):
NP = OP + (.015 X RANK)
For picks 17-32
NP = OP X 1.1
All old values still hold for round 2 on.
The result is a slower drop in values to 16, a small cliff before 17-32, and another small cliff before 33.
I realize that probably reads like gibberish, but I think the resulting chart looks like an improvement: