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Polian: Belichick made right call on 4th-and-2

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by pats1, Mar 6, 2010.

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  1. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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  2. HEY BRO! WHAT UP?

    HEY BRO! WHAT UP? Banned

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    I wonder what he would've said if the Colts lost that game?
     
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

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    Very strange. I thought it was the right call for opposite reasons. I thought the statistics definitely favored the call. 60-70% chance of making it, and the Colts having a 50 % chance of scoring a TD if the Pats don't make it. Overall that gives the Patriots 80-85% chance of winning or going to OT. Of course, my numbers could definitely be off. Even if you lower the Pats' chance of making it or increase the Colts' chance of scoring, the numbers are pretty good. With a punt, there's 100% chance of the Patriots not making it, and the extra yards needed by the Colts would likely bring their chances of scoring down about 20-30%... not nearly enough, considering that two-minute offense will likely move the ball in the open field with ease. The key was going to be once they got to the red zone. Anyway, I realize not everyone agrees with these numbers, but based on a lot of statistical models following the game, the Patriots made the right call.

    Contrary to Polian, I thought, if anything, the momentum of the game would be the reason to punt. You have a ton of momentum on the Colts' side, a very confident team versus a team that was blowing leads left and right, and an extremely loud crowd and fired up defense. When they snapped the ball, I think everyone in Patriots nation just felt like "this isn't gonna go well." It didn't, and of course we missed it by inches. Meanwhile, Belichick had already burned our challenges by wasting timeouts earlier, which was nearly irrelevant statistically, since the chances that would factor into the play were so low. A lot of things like that had just kind of ominously forewarned that this would be a bad ending, especially playing in Indianapolis. There are stats, and then there is that vibe that is equally as strong.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2010
  4. bostonia3333

    bostonia3333 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Someone should have been brave enough to ask him if he still stands by his word that losing the SB is the same thing as having a "2-14 season".
     
  5. RhodyPatriot

    RhodyPatriot In the Starting Line-Up

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    PoliOn is not only correct about the decision but also correct in his analysis as to why BB made that decision.
    The Patriots D was toast because of injuries late in that game and BB knew if Manning got the ball back he was going to score a TD.
    BB was right to go for it and Keven Faulk did in fact make the 1st down.
     
  6. Sivy

    Sivy In the Starting Line-Up

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    People need to move on from this.
     
  7. Badluck

    Badluck On the Game Day Roster

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    i really really cant stand polian. am i the only one?
     
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    this is by no means an endorsement of Polian, instead justification of what most of us know...
     
  9. CGH TX PATS

    CGH TX PATS Practice Squad Player

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    Heck no, I'm with you man! Polian is a D-Bag.
     
  10. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    i'm afraid i agreed at the time and agree now with the content of Polian's much less complex analysis. all of those stats, as valid as they might or might not be, go out the window when you are in a game situation. the decision has to be based on what's happening on the field. based on what was happening on the field, Belichick made the right decision and I believed it was right then and now for the reasons that Polian put forth.
     
  11. patsox23

    patsox23 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Many of us hate Polian, but he's a hall of famer and you've now heard from the top two minds in football that going on 4th and 2 was the right call.
     
  12. SteveBsFan

    SteveBsFan Practice Squad Player

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    But there are still people 'smarter' than them who will disagree, so it's pointless.
     
  13. captain stone

    captain stone Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    No Jersey Selected

    No you're not. I couldn't care less about, and you couldn't pay me enough to listen to, what NaPolian & Mark Cuban have to say about anything.

    And for the record, the decision on 4th/2 wasn't as bad as the play called on 3rd/2, which should've been a run of some type - sneak, draw, wildcat, something. Just pathetic.
     
  14. rabthepat

    rabthepat 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Polian agrreing with Belichick's decision...

    is further proof Bill made the wrong call.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
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