Overtime Rule Change Proposition

[Off The Grid]

Because the defense couldn't do its job.

And you think that that's fair. Got it.

 

[XLIX]

Let's be honest though, an offense and defense are two completely different teams, on the same team.

It's not Rodgers' nor the offense's fault the defense didn't hold up its end of the bargain. Rodgers got them a chance to win. Relying on the defense is not something every team can do, and that doesn't necessarily mean they should lose because of it (because you could have key injuries etc).

I don't like watching Brady sit on the sideline, helmet at the ready, only for one of our guys to slip on snowy turf and miss a tackle for the game.

That's not cool with me.

If you lose the coin toss in OT, play defense.

If you don't want to rely on the randomness of a coin toss in OT, win it in regulation.

 

[Patsrock]

And you think that that's fair. Got it.

Doesn't bother me like it does some people.

So would it be fair if the kick returner fumbles the ball and kicking team returns for TD to win the game. Since neither offense got a chance?

 

[Th3Birdman]

If you lose the coin toss in OT, play defense.

If you don't want to rely on the randomness of a coin toss in OT, win it in regulation.

Tbh you may as well say "win the coin toss".

Overtime rules in Football are not fair.

Why have 4 quarters instead of 2, 15 minute halves? The point is, I think it's arbitrary that you can answer 1 type of score but cannot answer another type of score. They're both scores.

I'm in favor of the extra period, and play until a winner is decided.

Each team gets two minutes to score. No one scores, another two minutes.

 

[Pats2000]

So I caught Around the Horn at the barbershop a little while ago and the Arizona/Green Bay game came up. Inevitably, it came down to two talking points: the coin toss and the overtime rules.

Normally I cannot stand Michael Smith because he's a biased prick who thinks he's smarter than he is, but he had a point that I agree with, and have been talking about for a long time: in overtime, both teams should get an opportunity to handle the football, regardless of who scores first.

My opinion is that the current rules favor the team that wins the toss, and puts immense pressure on a defense that might be gassed from a full 4 quarters, therfore the rules should change to both teams get an opportunity to handle the football, regardless who scores first.

In basketball, an overtime truly decides who was the better team, not one that happens to get lucky.

I am quite biased about this, as we had two opportunities to secure HFA had we been given an opportunity to score in either the Jets game or the Broncos game, so I'm posing this as a question:

Should we change the overtime rules?

Especially with the rules being tipped so much towards offensive production. The game is now built through the rule changes/enforcing defensive rules more strictly that the offense has a better chance than the defense in a lot of cases. So, yes, I agree, both teams should have a shot in overtime.

 

[Off The Grid]

So would it be fair if the kick returner fumbles the ball and kicking team returns for TD to win the game.

Since neither offense got a chance?

Good God!!

OK, man: I think we're both in danger of wasting precious Time, here.

Peace.

 

[IcyPatriot]

If a referee decision or overtime costs your team a game then you simply need to play harder and better.

 

[XLIX]

Especially with the rules being tipped so much towards offensive production. The game is now built through the rule changes/enforcing defensive rules more strictly that the offense has a better chance than the defense in a lot of cases. So, yes, I agree, both teams should have a shot in overtime.

And then what happens if it's still a tie? Should the NFL be like college where teams play 3, 4, 5 overtime possession each because they both keep scoring?

 

[TBR]

If teams are so concerned about that advantage they can choose to kick off to start overtime and claim that advantage for themselves.

If they don't do it, then perhaps it's not as big an advantage as you think.

If a team gives up an immediate TD to an opponent working with 3 downs, they shouldn't be rewarded with 4 full downs to go match it.

 

[Th3Birdman]

If a referee decision or overtime costs your team a game then you simply need to play harder and better.

I think you're over simplifying it.

In the playoffs especially, most teams are evenly matched, so a game going to overtime is not an uncommon occurrence. Once the game is in overtime, a team that receives is at an immediate advantage.

Also referees can be extremely biased. Look no further than our first OT game of the season, vs the Broncos. Without refs pulling strings in a disgusting display of outright bias against us, we may not have even been in overtime there.

So it's more to it than "play better". The rules should be more fair.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Whatever other factors have influenced the current numbers ~ such as Home Field, just to start ~ the suggestion that winning the OverTime Coin Toss doesn't confer an Advantage is preposterous.

Since the rules change to regular season OT in 2012 there have been 65 OT games that did not end in a tie. The team who received won 33 of them. The team who kicked off won 32 of them. That's as close to equal as you can get with a 65-game sample.

So where's your evidence for your claim that there's some incredibly obvious advantage to getting the ball first?

 

[PatriotSpy]

Instead of a coin toss how about team with most total yards in regulation gets ball first?

That way the team getting the ball first is based on actual team production and not a fluky toss of a coin.

 

[Off The Grid]

So where's your evidence for your claim that there's some incredibly obvious advantage to getting the ball first?

Sorry. You've vastly overrated my interest in debating one who can't grasp the ludicrously obvious.

You should just stick to slinging "Dislikes" and "Disagrees", Quantum, old kid.

That's evidently more your Speed.

 

[Th3Birdman]

Since the rules change to regular season OT in 2012 there have been 65 OT games that did not end in a tie. The team who received won 33 of them. The team who kicked off won 32 of them. That's as close to equal as you can get with a 65-game sample.

So where's your evidence for your claim that there's some incredibly obvious advantage to getting the ball first?

I got this.

Per reddit:

Stats on Overtime Coin Tosses (1974-2003)

The NFL has had 325 overtime games since the rule was adopted in 1974. The results:

• Both teams have had possession 235 times (72.3%).
• The team that has won the toss has won 169 times (52.0%).
• The team that has lost the toss has won 141 times (43.4%).
• 223 games were decided by a field goal (68.6%).
• 86 games were decided by a TD (26.5%).
• One game was decided by a safety (0.3%).
• There have been 15 ties (4.6%).

It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage.

TL;DR There is a fairly significant statistical advantage for the team that wins the toss. More than 25% of teams that lost the coin toss never touched the ball. Since 1994, the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 34.4 percent of the time on the first possession and have won about 60% of the time total.

r/nfl

 

[XLIX]

I got this.

Per reddit:

Stats on Overtime Coin Tosses (1974-2003)

The NFL has had 325 overtime games since the rule was adopted in 1974. The results:

• Both teams have had possession 235 times (72.3%).
• The team that has won the toss has won 169 times (52.0%).
• The team that has lost the toss has won 141 times (43.4%).
• 223 games were decided by a field goal (68.6%).
• 86 games were decided by a TD (26.5%).
• One game was decided by a safety (0.3%).
• There have been 15 ties (4.6%).

It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage.

TL;DR There is a fairly significant statistical advantage for the team that wins the toss. More than 25% of teams that lost the coin toss never touched the ball. Since 1994, the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 34.4 percent of the time on the first possession and have won about 60% of the time total.

r/nfl

Uh, you do realize that all those stats are completely meaningless given that a couple years ago, the OT sudden death rule was pretty radically changed by taking away the 1st possession FG winner, right?

 

[Patsrock]

I got this.

Per reddit:

Stats on Overtime Coin Tosses (1974-2003)

The NFL has had 325 overtime games since the rule was adopted in 1974. The results:

• Both teams have had possession 235 times (72.3%).
• The team that has won the toss has won 169 times (52.0%).
• The team that has lost the toss has won 141 times (43.4%).
• 223 games were decided by a field goal (68.6%).
• 86 games were decided by a TD (26.5%).
• One game was decided by a safety (0.3%).
• There have been 15 ties (4.6%).

It seems fair but these numbers are somewhat misleading because in 1994 a rule changed moved the kickoff back 5 yards to the 30 yard line (those numbers were based on data from 1973-2003). Since then, it's been about 60%. Prior to the rule change, the coin toss had no predictive value for deciding who would eventually win the game. Since 1994, the coin flip winner has a clear advantage.

TL;DR There is a fairly significant statistical advantage for the team that wins the toss. More than 25% of teams that lost the coin toss never touched the ball. Since 1994, the team that won the overtime coin toss won the game 34.4 percent of the time on the first possession and have won about 60% of the time total.

r/nfl

Can't use data from an overtime format that doesn't exist anymore.

That would be like me using the old NHL 5 v 5 2 points for winner and 0 points for a loss and 1 for a tie results compared to current 3 v 3 2 points for winner 1 point for loser and with a shootout at end of tied.

Both are played entirely different.

 

[Th3Birdman]

Uh, you do realize that all those stats are completely meaningless given that a couple years ago, the OT sudden death rule was pretty radically changed by taking away the 1st possession FG winner, right?

It's not meaningless. It's meant to demonstrate that there is an advantage to receiving.

Read the thread on that Reddit page. The other posters go in to that, regarding walk off TDs. It changes the numbers by about 5% at best, and is still a clear statistical advantage towards winning the toss/receiving.

 

[Th3Birdman]

Can't use data from an overtime format that doesn't exist anymore.

That would be like me using the old NHL 5 v 5 2 points for winner and 0 points for a loss and 1 for a tie results compared to current 3 v 3 2 points for winner 1 point for loser and with a shootout at end of tied.

Both are played entirely different.

Then the sample size would be far too small to gather meaningful data.

Again, read the link, they go into the stats regarding walk off TDs. This post is about a year and some change old.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Sorry. You've vastly overrated my interest in debating one who can't grasp the ludicrously obvious.

You should just stick to slinging "Dislikes" and "Disagrees", Quantum, old kid.

That's evidently more your Speed.

In other words you have zero to back up your spewage with. As I expected. As usual. Cheers!

 

[Patsrock]

Since the new OT rules took place in 2012 Pats have gone to OT 5 times and only 1 game have they not gotten a possession. And that was this year vs NYJ and that was 100% their own fault. Didn't take ball to start and couldn't stop the Jets from driving.