Bucs.
I know this sounds funny to say about a team that won 14 games, but last years Chiefs team was the worst 14-2 team I've seen along with the 2009 Colts. They both had the DVOA, SRS, and point differential of an 11-5/12-4 team.
It was an interesting paradox...were they a great team that knows how to win because of veteran leadership/coaching/quarterbacking, or were they really very lucky?
I think the answer is probably in between. They were actually 14-1 with Mahomes, and I think it's fair to just say they were a 15-1 team by record. From that standpoint, absolutely they were well short of a typical 15-win team, which would put them in historically great territory. I think that team was probably more like a typical 13-3 squad...they were one notch above your typical 12-4 serious contender...due to the consistent "turn on the jets when needed" stuff from Mahomes during the regular season. I have noticed teams with Brady, Manning, Mahomes, etc. tend to consistenly finish better in W/L than their point differential would predict.
But their flaws are pretty significant, too, and I'm shocked that they didn't address their defense much this offseason. For much of 2020, their offense was fine and Mahomes was protected as needed. The problem was always on the other side of the ball, and the Super Bowl merely caused an overreaction to injuries/perfect storm issues with the line. They didn't need to go out and spend that huge money on Thuney and (soon to be) Brown.
Their offense can maybe go from being an A- to an A through all that extra money spent...you know, a team that averaged 30 ppg now averaging 32 ppg. Their defense is probably a C-...they had a lot more room to go up with extra additions. The team borrowed even more future cap space (Mahomes contract) for, what I think, is somewhat of a nonsensical upgrade driven by the classic "how dare you let the superstar QB down!" types of pressures.
I think they're in that typical 12-win (or maybe now it's 13-4) range of serious contenders, but no longer better than the other best AFC teams. I look at that defense - player for player - and I'm shocked at how vulnerable it is. And the lack of depth
everywhere from a superstar strategy is alarming. If healthy, I think they'll be in the AFCCG; if they lose Kelce, Hill, Matheiu, or Jones, I don't think they'll get there. Especially Mathieu and Jones.