Nolan Nawrocki PFW 4/10 Mock Draft

[mgteich]

Consider these safe round one picks with great production: Watson and Graham.

After the season, after the 2010 season, it will matter not at all if the pro-bowler came from pick 35 or pick 47. It just doesn't matter where we fill our needs.

Well said. More correctly, he is a half year starter. Matthews is very unlikely at #23.


Occasionally Belichick surprises people in his press conferences when he lapses philosophical about the game or its history Paraphrasing one such quote : "Most of all you have to make sure that you take someone who has a production history and will Play. Nothing damages a program more than a mistake in the first round. Other rounds are for gambles on greatness."

Elsewhere he said Teams pretty much conform tothe talent available. Teams take good players in the First. The potentially good players with a defect are available in the second round. In the third they return to selecting players at a lower level who can play.

By interpretation, He selects SAFE players who have a Production history with his first selection. He gambles on greatness on second round players
He takes solid contributors with a production history in the third round.

If you look at his drafting history:

He has never had a First Round bust.
He has had several second round busts, on gambles on greatness.
He has acquired quite a few good contributing players in the third, fourth round.

From that history he wasn't blowing smoke when he lapsed into one of his philosophical responses to a question in a press conference.

With that in mind, what does he do in this draft?

I think you are right. Guys with"potential" are not on his menu for first round picks. He wants players who have no questions and have production in their history. Besides Matthews, who else falls off his first round list, perhaps into the second? All the DE--> OLB conversion candidates? SILB projections like Sintim ?

 

[bucky]

Why do you want to draft a clone of Baker when you already have him on the roster? Given that, how in any way shape or form is that the optimal use for a 1st round pick? I think you're just getting too trigger shy. You've got to draft for greatness at least once when you have this many draft picks to spend. The guy who has that high upside AND ability to play tight end is Connor Barwin. People keep forgetting that, if BB is targeting a tight end, why not get a guy who can play both TE and Defense?

I don't want a Baker clone.

According to ESPN's Scout's Inc, Baker is a liability as a blocker at the point of attack. They consider him a receiving TE and a wall off blocker. And while I don't always agree with what they say, I don't have any personal scouting experience of Baker to contradict them either.

Pettigrew is a huge guy and is already an exceptional blocker in both the running and passing games. So I look at him as a bigger, more durable, and better hands version of Graham, who by the way has always been a better player than Baker.

If you also consider that Watson's contract demands after this season will almost certainly mean he's gone, I would say this pick makes more sense than drafting a OLB conversion project who may end up being inactive most of the year.

 

[captain stone]

Consider these safe round one picks with great production: Watson and Graham.

Do you mean Watson as in Bumblin' Bennie Watson, who was neither a safe Round 1 pick nor productive in college, despite his off-the-charts athleticism & intelligence?

If Bill drafts Pettigrew, he will admit to the rest of the world that which I have already known: drafting the Bumbler was a collossal Eff-up, and the beginning of a stretch of some really terrible over-reaching, based mostly on potential & athleticism instead of production & football skills.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nolan Nawrocki has just updated his 1 round mock draft:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

He's still got the Pats taking Brandon Pettigrew at 23.

Some unusual picks, including:

3. KC - Tyson Jackson. This is by far the earliest I've seen Jackson projected, and I don't understand it at all. If they want to go DL I would think Raji is a much better prospect.
5. Cleveland - Malcolm Jenkins. Jenkins going #5 seems quite high for where most have been projecting him recently.
8. Jax - Eugene Monroe - he can't possibly last this long.
9. GB - Michael Crabtree - don't think he lasts this long either.
11. Buff - Aaron Curry. If Curry falls to #10, we should trade up with SF. 23, 58 and 89 might do it, which would still leave us with 34 and 47.
12. Denver - BJ Raji. Curry and Raji at 11 and 12 would be quite a feat.
16. SD - Rey Maualuga.
18. Denver - Knowshon Moreno. Nawrocki had Moreno going #4 a week ago.
20. Detroit - Aaron Maybin.
25. Miami - Robert Ayers.
26. Balt - Vontae Davis.
32. Pittsburgh - Eric Wood.

Like Don Banks today, Nawrocki has Everette Brown slipping out of the 1st round altogether.

21. Philadelphia - Darius Butler.

 

[Deus Irae]

Do you mean Watson as in Bumblin' Bennie Watson, who was neither a safe Round 1 pick nor productive in college, despite his off-the-charts athleticism & intelligence?

If Bill drafts Pettigrew, he will admit to the rest of the world that which I have already known: drafting the Bumbler was a collossal Eff-up, and the beginning of a stretch of some really terrible over-reaching, based mostly on potential & athleticism instead of production & football skills.

Except that it will mean no such thing. With Graham no longer on the roster, it'll mean that the team is looking to add strength to the tight end position, nothing more. If anything, it'll put the Selection of the deceased fast food maganate into question.