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Nolan Nawrocki PFW 4/10 Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mayoclinic, Apr 11, 2009.

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  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A new one rounder from Pro Football Weekly:

    NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

    My initial thought is that either Nawrocki knows something or he's smoking something: Knowshon Moreno at #4 to Seattle and Beanie Wells falling to 31? Aaron Curry dropping to #8? Mark Sanchez falling to #12 and BJ Raji to #15? Brian Robiskie going to the Colts at #27 (higher in the draft than Wells)? Everette Brown falling to 29?

    And he has the Pats taking Brandon Pettigrew at #23 when Everette Brown, Connor Barwin, Clay Matthews, William Beatty, Eben Britton, ZIggy Hood and Jarron Gilbert are all on the board.

    If Raji falls to New Orleans at #14 I would trade #23 and #58 to move up for him. Then I'd hope for Barwin or one of the other 3-4 OLBs at 34, and take a safety at 47.
  2. slash83

    slash83 Rookie

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    Id be bummed if the Pats go offense with the 23rd pick, especially a TE.
  3. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    I can't really comment on the draft overall. But I will say that if these are the choices at 23, I would go with Pettigrew as well. The reason?

    OL is not good value for the Pats in round 1. Ziggy, I don't believe can play 2-gap DE. Gilbert is boom or bust, which takes him out of consideration at 23. Barwin I won't comment on because it's been beaten to death. Mathews might well be the pick, but I'm just skeptical about all 3 USC LBs. Brown is a very intriguing choice and might be tough to pass up. But being a conversion project, he carries higher risk than Pettigrew.

    I would think, based on the way the board is, the Pats could be feeling good about landing a defensive front seven player at 34 and a DB at 47
  4. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Why do you want to draft a clone of Baker when you already have him on the roster? Given that, how in any way shape or form is that the optimal use for a 1st round pick? I think you're just getting too trigger shy. You've got to draft for greatness at least once when you have this many draft picks to spend. The guy who has that high upside AND ability to play tight end is Connor Barwin. People keep forgetting that, if BB is targeting a tight end, why not get a guy who can play both TE and Defense?

    The other thing I'd like to note is that Clay Matthews is a 1 year STARTER. Connor Barwin also started for 1 year on defense and 3 years on offense. So how is Matthews any SAFER than Barwin? He's not. People are just comforted by his name and 'bloodlines'.
  5. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    I'm really getting the feeling that Round 1 in this draft is full of JAGs and potential busts. The fact that players are all over the board in round 1 highlights how few blue chippers there really are.


    I agree, but I don't think he'll drop to 14.
  6. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not sure I would be quite so pessimistic. I think there's tremendous talent through the top 50 of this draft, much more so than in previous years. There's just very little separation, so it's hard to come up with a consensus first round group. Any list from 30-50 compares reasonably well with the players from 10-30. Maybe they are not true "blue chippers" but JAGs seems a bit harsh.

    Last year a lot of people were bemoaning how week the top of the draft was in a year in which we had the #7 pick. But the rookie crop was one of the strongest in memory. In contrast, 2006, which was considered a banner year, has produced very little.

    I'm sure the FO can sort out the nuggets from the JAGs.

    I don't think he will either, but stranger things have happened. Mel Kiper currently has Malcolm Jenkins as his #24 prospect, and Jenkins was top 5 a few months ago. He's a high character kid with a tremendous track record of success whose major question is his timed speed.
  7. BPF

    BPF Rookie

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    #14 is too high for Cushing and New Orleans would be a good trading partner since they only have 4 picks in this deep draft. They could slide down 9 spots and pick a LB at 23 which would be better value and also pick up a 2 in the process. I like the idea of Raji but I don't think you can target specific positions in RD 2 with the picks. You either move up and down the board and get specific players you think fit best or you stay put and pick the best available player regardless of position.
  8. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think that's certainly true. I was trying to indicate general tendencies. There are 3 or 4 very attractive safety prospects and several attractive OLB prospects, and they are both positions of need, so I don't think looking at those two positions is unreasonable. But obviously if someone more highly valued were available we would go that route.
  9. Revman

    Revman Rookie

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    Why would you trade up for Raji?. We have a very good NT already. Just sign Wilfork to an extension. Raji can't play end. I don't get that trade. I would rather see us stay at 23-grab Evander Hood-DE- then snag Larry English at 34. Two for one. Both would find roles as rookies-make contributions and be ready to start soon enough in case of injury or need.
  10. strongside

    strongside Rookie

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    I think the "pats never draft based on need" sentiment is so overplayed in the national media. I'm pretty sure Mayo was a need pick and so was Merriwether.
  11. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If BB thinks Pettigrew is the BVA, he'll do it. But I don't think he's going to pass on Matthews and let Mia take him.
  12. Brady'sButtBoy

    Brady'sButtBoy Rookie

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    My bet is that the Pats try to trade down in (or even out of) the first round in exchange for another pick next year. Why? With so many talking heads acknowledging the lack of separation in talent after the first 8-12 players that there must be some truth to this idea.

    A player very similar in talent to Pettigrew could easily come 10-20 spots later it appears. Heck, Barwin isn't even in this guy's first round. Several sources have noted it is a strong year for TE's so I do expect BB to pick one in the 2nd.


    If someone 'special' to a certain team slides down into the 20's, I guess the Pat's pick could be had for not to a high a price - maybe a swap of a 3rd for the other team's 2nd in the 2010 draft.

    The other obvious thing to consider is with this limited pool of difference makers and the Pats holding three 2nd's that the team would make a big move up into the first 8 - I just can't see for whom.
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2009
  13. BPF

    BPF Rookie

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    They could trade down but according to Mayock the sweet spot of RD 1 is around spot 22.
  14. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    I agree Mayo.. Did you see The NFL Network last night? They did a segment on the Seahawks draft war room and preparations. The GM actually said for one of his assistants to "post all of the other Mock Drafts out there and compare them to ours" as they are lining up their picks. So at the end of the day we have non-NFL payed Mock Draft posters influencing NFL teams draft boards. Amazing!He did let it escape they are looking for a CB over 6' tall.
    DW Toys.
  15. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Agreed. As was also Mankins - who replaced the just departed Andruzzi. And could also make the same point for Mahroney as Dillon was about 31 at that point and had lots of wear and tear accumulated over the years. NE drafted Mahroney (although Dillon still on the roster) to groom as his replacement.

    Sometimes the need is not just in the current year but for the following year. Thats the nice thing about BB's job security. He can be more long-sighted than most HC's in the league.
  16. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And Warren. He was drafted because he was the last of the top DE's.

  17. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan On the Roster

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    Well said. More correctly, he is a half year starter. Matthews is very unlikely at #23.


    Occasionally Belichick surprises people in his press conferences when he lapses philosophical about the game or its history Paraphrasing one such quote : "Most of all you have to make sure that you take someone who has a production history and will Play. Nothing damages a program more than a mistake in the first round. Other rounds are for gambles on greatness."

    Elsewhere he said Teams pretty much conform tothe talent available. Teams take good players in the First. The potentially good players with a defect are available in the second round. In the third they return to selecting players at a lower level who can play.

    By interpretation, He selects SAFE players who have a Production history with his first selection. He gambles on greatness on second round players
    He takes solid contributors with a production history in the third round.

    If you look at his drafting history:

    He has never had a First Round bust.
    He has had several second round busts, on gambles on greatness.
    He has acquired quite a few good contributing players in the third, fourth round.

    From that history he wasn't blowing smoke when he lapsed into one of his philosophical responses to a question in a press conference.

    With that in mind, what does he do in this draft?

    I think you are right. Guys with"potential" are not on his menu for first round picks. He wants players who have no questions and have production in their history. Besides Matthews, who else falls off his first round list, perhaps into the second? All the DE--> OLB conversion candidates? SILB projections like Sintim ?
  18. reamer

    reamer Rookie

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    Wow, I wish I'd heard that press conference. Sounds excellent.

    Watson, Meriweather, and Maroney are the least proven of his first-rounders. These are make or break seasons for them, I'd imagine. Not sure they fit the profile listed above, but let's assume that it's a correct profile and these are deviations.

    Who, then, is the most proven and productive player likely to be available in the 20s? I'd have to say a guy like Moreno or English--Jenkins if he miraculously falls. Other than that, I don't see too many, to be honest. Laurinaitis, maybe? Chung, also, was ridiculously productive, but I see him as more of a second-rounder.

    "Gambles for greatness," aside from being a great phrase, could steer us toward guys like Barwin or even Davis in the second. We'd have to hope they would turn out better than Bethel or Jackson, huh?
  19. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    I'd be extremely disappointed if we passed on Everett Brown at 23. Disgusted actually.
    Of course I've felt that way before and been pleasantly pleased the way things turned out.
  20. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    I would be very happy if we passed on Brown. Most experts say is not the player Winbley was at the same stages of their career and Wimbley has not exactly torn up the NFL thus far.

    Plus Brown does not play the run, which might cause BB to drop the kid from the draft baord.
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