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New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer rating

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Dec 7, 2010.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Wow, now that Brady is coming up on the golden boy's passer rating, what are the haters going to say? I'm pretty sure I already see it coming- it's about longevity stats- total career yards; it's about throwing interception ala Favre and sacrificing personal stats to have a chance a winning; it's about making motions at the line of scrimmage; it's about calling out your offensive line; it's about your wide receivers dropping balls; it's about Reggie Wayne running the wrong route in the Super Bowl; it's about the defense; it's about the coaching staff, etc. etc. etc.

    Frankly, I'm sick of the obvious fact that Brady is a better quarterback when it matters most, which is obvious and couldn't be by a greater margin. I'm sick of hearing that wins and championships are a team effort, used to belittle Brady against the propaganda machines; this argument is not only fallacious, but also irrelevant. Brady is the better quarterback, period. He is better by most statistical measures in nearly every situation.

    I thought I would post a few interesting stats. I would argue that statistically, Brady is currently the best quarterback who ever played the game. He is pretty far better than Manning, if you break down the stats on an even playing field, rather than the longevity numbers, and Manning is supposedly the benchmark.

    Passer Rating
    Manning- 94.8
    Brady- 94.7

    Passer Rating Breakdown- Why Brady is better

    Brady's stats are still better than Manning's, since interceptions have the highest correlation to winning %. Let's see what the stats would produce with both quarterbacks throwing 500 times in a season:

    Brady- 318-500, 3700 yards, 27.5 TDs, 11 INTs
    Manning- 325-500, 3800 yards, 27.5 TDs 14 INTs

    The question would become, would you sacrifice 100 passing yards and seven completions for three less interceptions? I think the answer is obvious. Three interceptions over a full season would likely translate to an additional loss, if not two.

    TD:INT Ratio

    Brady- 2.45:1
    Manning- 1.99:1

    If you don't think this is a big discrepancy, do some research. This is basically the difference between Manning and an average quarterback on the other end.

    Split Situations

    This should prove beyond any doubt that Brady is better, and this doesn't even include the clutch factor.

    Indoors:
    Brady- 103.1
    Manning- 98.6

    Outdoors:
    Brady- 93.8
    Manning- 90.7

    Cold (24-40 degrees):
    Brady- 94.5
    Manning- 85.0

    Mild (41-60 degrees):
    Brady- 95.7
    Manning- 85.7

    Rain
    Brady- 95.1
    Manning- 83.8

    Wind
    Brady- 95.1
    Manning- 82.6


    Defense

    Here's how the Patriots and Colts have stacked up since the rivalry really began in 2001. I'm putting which team had the better defense based on points allowed.

    '10- Colts
    '09- Patriots
    '08- Colts
    '07- Colts (led NFL in fewest points allowed)
    '06- Patriots (2nd in NFL)
    '05- Colts (2nd in NFL)
    '04- Patriots (2nd in NFL)
    '03- Patriots (1st in NFL)
    '02- Colts
    '01- Patriots

    Final Result- In ten seasons, the Colts defense has allowed fewer points five times. The Colts have had a top-2 scoring defense twice, while the Patriots have three times.

    Pro Bowls/ First Round Draft Choices

    Here's a list of pro bowl players that each quarterback has had at his disposal for skill positions.

    Brady's Pro Bowl Players- Randy Moss* (2), Wes Welker (2), Troy Brown, Corey Dillon, total of 6.

    Manning's Pro Bowl Players- Marvin Harrison* (8), Edgerrin James* (4), Reggie Wayne* (4), Marshall Faulk*, Dallas Clark*, Joseph Addai*, total of 19.

    *First-round pick
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2010
  2. Fball

    Fball Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Manning fan here. I think the "debate," for whatever it's worth, is coming to an end (though I used to say that nothing could really be factored until both their careers were over).

    Watching Brady last night & this season, I can only shake my head. One of the announcers said that he always puts the ball where only HIS receiver can catch it, and that is consistently true (which is why he rarely throws INT's anymore). To me, that is the biggest differentiator for him, though he has every other intangible, as well.

    With the way the Pats are reloading, he will probably end up with 5 rings, and might have had that already with a few bounces the other way.

    No discredit to Manning. He is one of the greatest QB's of his generation, and would likely have more rings if THE greatest wasn't playing at the same time. Bottom line, when I can step away & look at it objectively - if I was a defensive coordinator or player, I'd rather face Manning than Brady.
  3. TX_Patriot

    TX_Patriot Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Wow, nice analysis. Thanks for the great info...but was there ever really any doubt? ;)
  4. sieglo

    sieglo Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Pretty good. I still want someone to create a "dome vs. outdoors" adjustment. Once applied, Brady is even more obviously superior.
  5. TruthSeeker

    TruthSeeker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Thanks for this well written post. It's always helpful to take a look behind the stats and get some more context for evaluation.

    It speaks a lot to what is happening this year that TB and PM are almost tied in QB rating since it takes a lot to move numbers that have accumulated over so many years.
  6. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Brady was separated by something like 5 points before 2007, which is, like you said, a seemingly impossible number to make up. He likely would have passed PM in 2008 had he played with that offense against those weak opponents. With the harrowing schedule coming up, I wouldn't bet my money that Brady will overtake him this year, but with this new look offense, I'd be surprised if Brady didn't end his career in the lead.
  7. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Tom Brady put on a CLINIC last night and Peyton Manning has been playing the worst ball of his career over the last 3 weeks. It's kind of well a bad time to do a comparison don't you think? That said, I do believe Brady is the better QB. But let's wait till the season is over to do a comparison. There's still 4 games left to go in the season.
  8. tart

    tart Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    27TD / 4INT is already INSANE. But let us remember -- one of these INT's came on a hail mary at the end of the Baltimore game, so in essence its 27 / 3. If you wanna go even further, 2 of them came in the Jets game when trying to force the ball to Moss (a problem we no longer have).
  9. Mark12

    Mark12 Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Well last season when Tom was having a bad season by his standards, everyone seem to forget about him. So don't feel any pity for Peyton Manning.

    Tom Brady wins another MVP and SB and give him the G.O.A.T. crown please
  10. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    And one of those INTs, I maintain, wasn't a bad INT since it was 3rd and long, and he heaved it up there. It was as good as a punt.
  11. ALP

    ALP Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    hmm, i would, but i cant

    Brady has 3 sb's, Montana has 4, montana has never lost in a SB

    if Brady ties Montana w/ 4 sb's, they will be equal, when Brady gets #5, THEN he will be an unquestionable G.O.A.T. and only idiots would say otherwise

    tharefore Brady needs two more sb's before his the GOAT
  12. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Wow. That pill must have gone down like a razor for you. Should we still be shaking in our boots about facing the Colts in the playoffs?
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2010
  13. Fball

    Fball Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Aren't you? I'd be surprised if you got excited about facing the Colts again this year; especially if you go up 31-14 again in the 4th.

    But credit where it's due; Brady is at the top of his game right now....
  14. andrewgarrr

    andrewgarrr Banned

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Couldn't agree more. When it is all said and done, I think the QB should be measured by SB wins.
  15. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    I'll wait to see if you guys get over the .500 hump, find an ability to stop the run, and find an ability to generate a running game that doesn't completely suck first before I begin worrying about whether or not we're even going to play you in the playoffs.
  16. Patsfanin Philly

    Patsfanin Philly Rookie

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Not trying to nitpick ( I agree with your premise) but how can Manning have a higher overall passer rating if Brady has a higher rating indoors and a higher rating outside?
  17. NEGoldenAge

    NEGoldenAge Banned

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Because Manning has played a lot less in bad weather, and more than half of his games are in a dome. These are some awesome numbers.
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2010
  18. TruthSeeker

    TruthSeeker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    I think it's perfectly reasonable to compare career stats at any time; no real reason to only do it at the end of the season. It also allows my to enjoy even more what is happening. :) I use to be a Manning guy and didn't switch to becoming a Brady guy until around 2003 - and then had doubts around 2005-2006. They're both really good but Tom really does do more with less.
  19. Patsfanin Philly

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra


    With Brady having better numbers both indoors and outdoors compared to Manning, shouldn't Brady have the higher overall passer rating?
  20. andrewgarrr

    andrewgarrr Banned

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    Re: New Brady/ Manning stats- Brady within 0.1 points of Manning for career passer ra

    Manning plays a lot better in a vacuum.
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