NEW ARTICLE: Fire Belichick? That One May Complicate Patriots’ Future Even Further

[upstater1]

As I wrote, no one is going to want to come here if Belichick is fired and the quarterback is dealt, not without grossly overpaying them. That will last at least a couple of years until it reaches a point where players are comfortable with this team being a destination where they can be confident with both the team and their potential success. With Belichick still as coach, you can deal the QB and still have free agents who he can sit across from him and feel good about coming here, provided they have a reasonable plan moving forward.

The best path forward might be a compromise where Belichick stays, and someone is put in charge of selecting offensive players, with Belichick still having the final say among defensive selections.

I feel like most people here don't have an issue with Belichick's coaching, it's more about the team he's constructed, especially on offense. Obviously, those feelings are justified. So, having already started making some compromises, it makes sense for Bill to make one on the offensive side and trust whoever is making those decisions.

But firing him is going to be a major setback because we're going to be even further down the list than we already are, and despite the terrific amount of cap space, it won't matter if the people they try and spend it on decline to come here unless the Patriots outbid everybody. Then, that just creates a different problem that will make it tough to be competitive.

So if Bill will at least be flexible, if they can figure it out, there's continuity without the chaos and it's a smoother transition.

I lagrely agree with all of this, but I wonder what this means: " I feel like most people here don't have an issue with Belichick's coaching, it's more about the team he's constructed, especially on offense. Obviously, those feelings are justified. So, having already started making some compromises, it makes sense for Bill to make one on the offensive side and trust whoever is making those decisions."

I've been asking repeatedly for 3 weeks now for people to lay it out. What are we talking about? So far there have been 3 answers: the N'Keal Harry bust, the Tyquan pick, and not drafting Dawand Jones. That's all I've seen from people. Because otherwise I've seen Belichick invest a heap of picks in the offensive line (5 of the them in the interior) over the last 2 years. I've seen us take multiple top WRs and TEs available in the FA market (Algholor, Bourne, JuJu, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki). They've expended a lot of resources. The conclusion can only be that FA was not the place to address pass catchers the last couple of years. The next FA market might change that, who knows. But also, FA was not the place to address our tackle problems, since the top tackles signed for $90m guaranteed, and they are now considered busts.

This is what brings me back to the draft. Taking Tyquan is fair criticism (though I think he may actually be very good if only he could stay healthy). Not taking Dawand is also fair criticism.

But people who are criticizing Belichick for his defensive focus at the top of the last draft are essentially telling us we shouldn't have taken Gonzalez and Keion White. I can't go along with that at all.

When you're putting together a team, you can be criticized for draft errors (Tyquan and Dawand) and for not expending enough money to bring in FAs (an odd thing to criticize Belichick for when the reporters around here have been yelling for years he shouldn't go on spending sprees). But you shouldn't b criticized for making strategic decisions like taking a top defender over a 1st round WR. It's not the way to buil;d a team.

All I'm asking is that we're absolutely specific when we make a generalized comment about blowing it when it comes to the offense.

 

[upstater1]

There was a time the Patriots cycled through head coaches. What BB brought to New England was stability. That stability brought success that has been unparalleled in the history of the NFL.

People truly underrate the value of consistency. When you have a consistent organizational setup, you bank on older players having a knowledge of plays that goes back years and which allows the team to operate at a higher level. Learning new plays, new systems, year by year, increases imprecision.

Bills fans are doing this right now as they are talking about potentially firing Sean McDermott, which would be a colossal mistake for that franchise.

One problem the Patriots are having with consistency right now is that we have so many young players (54 new ones since Mac was drafted) who haven't banked the years of experience with Belichick yet. But... Belichick is old. This has to end sometime regardless.

 

[archstanton543]

I lagrely agree with all of this, but I wonder what this means: " I feel like most people here don't have an issue with Belichick's coaching, it's more about the team he's constructed, especially on offense. Obviously, those feelings are justified. So, having already started making some compromises, it makes sense for Bill to make one on the offensive side and trust whoever is making those decisions."

I've been asking repeatedly for 3 weeks now for people to lay it out. What are we talking about? So far there have been 3 answers: the N'Keal Harry bust, the Tyquan pick, and not drafting Dawand Jones. That's all I've seen from people. Because otherwise I've seen Belichick invest a heap of picks in the offensive line (5 of the them in the interior) over the last 2 years. I've seen us take multiple top WRs and TEs available in the FA market (Algholor, Bourne, JuJu, Henry, Jonnu, Gesicki). They've expended a lot of resources. The conclusion can only be that FA was not the place to address pass catchers the last couple of years. The next FA market might change that, who knows. But also, FA was not the place to address our tackle problems, since the top tackles signed for $90m guaranteed, and they are now considered busts.

This is what brings me back to the draft. Taking Tyquan is fair criticism (though I think he may actually be very good if only he could stay healthy). Not taking Dawand is also fair criticism.

But people who are criticizing Belichick for his defensive focus at the top of the last draft are essentially telling us we shouldn't have taken Gonzalez and Keion White. I can't go along with that at all.

When you're putting together a team, you can be criticized for draft errors (Tyquan and Dawand) and for not expending enough money to bring in FAs (an odd thing to criticize Belichick for when the reporters around here have been yelling for years he shouldn't go on spending sprees). But you shouldn't b criticized for making strategic decisions like taking a top defender over a 1st round WR. It's not the way to buil;d a team.

All I'm asking is that we're absolutely specific when we make a generalized comment about blowing it when it comes to the offense.

It's where they're picking or how much at a certain position or what they're paying FA's to come here. It's WHO they're targeting.

 

[archstanton543]

People truly underrate the value of consistency. When you have a consistent organizational setup, you bank on older players having a knowledge of plays that goes back years and which allows the team to operate at a higher level. Learning new plays, new systems, year by year, increases imprecision.

Bills fans are doing this right now as they are talking about potentially firing Sean McDermott, which would be a colossal mistake for that franchise.

One problem the Patriots are having with consistency right now is that we have so many young players (54 new ones since Mac was drafted) who haven't banked the years of experience with Belichick yet. But... Belichick is old. This has to end sometime regardless.

There's consistency alright. Consistently moving in the wrong direction. BB isn't going to coach forever. He's probably got 3-4 years tops. The consistency is going to go away sooner than you think.

BB's had a crazy amount of success in his 20+ years here bit that doesn't mean you have to keep your wagon hitched to the same horse (or that horse's coaching tree) forever. People get old. Legends fade. There comes a time where, metaphorically speaking, the kids need to take the car keys away from dad.

 

[SVN]

This whole argument is over blown. Look at McDaniel in Miami. Rookie HC. Comes in and turns the team around offensively. Tua was nothing special before last season. They get a blue chip WR in the draft, bring in a top 5 WR in FAcy and the HC is kicking ass on offense. He's a football nerd that his players find weird AF but has them buying in because he connects with them. Oh, he's also 2-1 against Bill.

Same thing can happen here, albeit we need more weapons: QB in Rd 1, OT, WR in 2-3. Bring in a WR1, OL in FAcy. It'll take more than a year but the notion Bill is the only HC that can make this team competitive is nonsense. He tried for 4 years and failed. Time to give the new guy a chance.

I get you. but let them win something . Being good and flashy in the regular season vs in the postseason are different

 

[upstater1]

It's where they're picking or how much at a certain position or what they're paying FA's to come here. It's WHO they're targeting.

All I ask is that you NAME them

People can be vague and abstract and say anything they want, but the nitty gritty of stocking a team relies on choosing one specific player ov er another.

I gave 3 examples where Belichick failed to do this. But we're talking about 2 positions really. Otherwise, the main problem is the same it has always been for the last several years: the QB position.

 

[archstanton543]

All I ask is that you NAME them

People can be vague and abstract and say anything they want, but the nitty gritty of stocking a team relies on choosing one specific player ov er another.

I gave 3 examples where Belichick failed to do this. But we're talking about 2 positions really. Otherwise, the main problem is the same it has always been for the last several years: the QB position.

Jonnu Smith, Reiff, Harry, Parker, Anderson

I'm not going to sit here and list all the busts. It's been covered here ad nauseum and you watch the games.

This team isn't one QB away. There are massive problems, mainly on offense (yes, QB is one of them) that need to be addressed. And by "addressed" I don't mean picking G's and T's in the mid-rounds and signing guys in their mid-30's.

 

[upstater1]

Jonnu Smith, Reiff, Harry, Parker, Anderson

I'm not going to sit here and list all the busts. It's been covered here ad nauseum and you watch the games.

This team isn't one QB away. There are massive problems, mainly on offense (yes, QB is one of them) that need to be addressed. And by "addressed" I don't mean picking G's and T's in the mid-rounds and signing guys in their mid-30's.

Again, you're generalizing. Jonnu was the best TE on the market (in fact, he's doing well as soon as he left Mac Jones). He was the best you could possibly get, which also goes for Henry and Gesicki. We've cornered the market on the best TEs possible.

You're against picking guards in the mid-rounds? OK, so why not pick them in the first round, like Cole Strange?

See what I mean?

Again, what tackles did you want? McGlinchey? Orlando Brown?

 

[archstanton543]

Again, you're generalizing. Jonnu was the best TE on the market (in fact, he's doing well as soon as he left Mac Jones). He was the best you could possibly get, which also goes for Henry and Gesicki. We've cornered the market on the best TEs possible.

You're against picking guards in the mid-rounds? OK, so why not pick them in the first round, like Cole Strange?

See what I mean?

Again, what tackles did you want? McGlinchey? Orlando Brown?

I would have picked "don't leave your team bereft of talent do you don't have to go looking in the bargain bin". This doesn't go back to last off season. It's been going on since 2018-19.

 

[borg]

Year 4 of the "Rebuild"

Total cost / AKA **Total cap space** utilized:
(All contracts, IR reserve money, Reserve/PUP money, Dead money, Practice squad)

2020.......$186.6 mill
2021........$200.5 mill
2022........$208.0 mill
2023........$220.0 mill
-----------------------
Total Spent.........$815.1 mill

2024......projected NFL cap....$242.9 mill
_________________________________________________________________________

Including year 5 of the Post Brady Rebuild, a returning Bill Belichick will have spent in the neighborhood of.....

$1.050 BILLION Kraft Bucks

Note: After Week 6 of 2023 season, Patriots are 1-5 (last place in AFCE, #6 draft pick)

New England Patriots 2024 Salary Cap

A real-time breakdown of the New England Patriots 2024 salary cap, including salaries, bonuses, reserve lists, dead cap, cap space and more.

www.spotrac.com

Robert:

Bill:

.

 

[Steve102]

That's going to be the question. They don't need a teardown, they're obviously in fairly good shape defensively and the drafts have been such for the last couple of years where they've got a good group of players on that side of the ball. Obviously, most of their issues are on offense, which is the root of what's wrong this year.

Again, if they continue to slide, the only way out is probably for Bill to concede on the offensive personnel and entrust someone else to evaluate and make that call, while he obviously handles the rest. If not, I don't see a path forward.

But all I'm saying is once he's gone, there's literally no draw to come here, especially if Mac is dealt. If they deal Mac and Bill's at least here, there's a reason aside from $$ for guys to be confident in potentially picking here over some where else. They don't have a Robert Saleh or a guy who coached elsewhere that landed here that has a history with anybody. Mayo obviously lacks that also. So you can't have a terrible team and have no relationship to leverage to lure guys here.

So aside from grossly overpaying, it doesn't matter how much money they have, it's going to be tough for them to get better quickly and that means more drafts and more years to become good enough where they're able to lure better talent here.

Again, they'd probably have a better shot next March of bringing guys in if Bill's still here. If he's not, it's probably going to be a problem.

There's a very vocal minority here that won't be happy until Bill is run out of here. Nothing anyone says, writes or does is going to change their mind. They will also be the first to complain loudly when the next regime fails to draft well or secure any top flight FAs to build around.

There's no one out there in 2024 that is the type of franchise altering signing like Reggie White was way back in the day. He transformed how people felt about the Green Bay franchise. Looking ahead, however, you're going to have the same thing available that is always available: overpaid underperformers, aging vets past their prime or middle class FAs that the vocal minority loves to ***** about.

Bill's method of building the offense clearly doesn't work in 2023, and won't work in 2024. The problem is this: who is out there for offensive weapons as a FA that's going be the savior at WR? Gabriel Davis? Michael Pittman Jr? Mike Evans? Maybe, but he's 30. I know everyone here who covets everyone else's WRs wants Jeudy, but if he's so valuable, why does Denver want off of him so bad?

It's far from a slam dunk of "go get ________."

Draft is not an exact science, and there's no guarantee that a high draft pick is going to net you a franchise altering QB. Statistically, Mac had a good game last Sunday, but the weapons around him are not game breakers, and there's no game breakers on the FA market, so you're back to the draft. Do you keep Mac and his pedestrian numbers and his complete lack of the magic "it", (as in "we know it when we see it") and then draft a WR high? Outside of Marvin Harrison Jr, who's there? A bunch of guys that are top 1st or 2nd round types, but no consensus lock.

The play might be to bring in a GM, let Bill coach X's and O's, much to the delight of those folks who love him so, while keeping Mac at QB. Take Harrison in round 1, take a stud OT in round 2, while signing one of the three free agent WRs I mentioned above.

No one wants to follow a legend, and there's been two of them here in Foxboro. The next QB will probably be well loved, but you're probably two more coaching regimes away from fans appreciating what we've had here for 20 years. The next coach and GM have their hands full.

I think we are in for a long haul.

 

[upstater1]

I would have picked "don't leave your team bereft of talent do you don't have to go looking in the bargain bin". This doesn't go back to last off season. It's been going on since 2018-19.

It's not bereft of talent. People who aren't twisted by the local media have evaluated the drafts and determined they've done well the last several years. Bargain bin? Are you expecting them to spend more than the $15m a year they've recently been spending on these guys?

 

[venecol]

Robert Kraft Reportedly Has Discussed Moving On From Bill Belichick

"These discussions have taken place," Albert Breer said about the Patriots potentially moving on from Bill Belichick after the season.

nesn.com

Ian this is happening. No doubt the years Team Bill members have spent in denial of the inevitable will create a sense of loss, anguish and confusion. Instead of fighting it, please help them during this difficult transition by getting them some counseling.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Bill looks pretty burnt out and former Pats players are saying he either needs to do things differently or should just hang it up. In fact, Bruschi pointed out Bill is not the kind of guy that sticks around to coach meaningless victories just to get a record. It's not going to mean anything if his teams are missing the playoffs.

As much as I'd like a fresh start with a brand new coaching staff and front office, my prediction is that Bill will give up his executive role to stay with the Pats. I think he'd want to finish his career with NE rather than "parting mutually" and coaching for another team for a few more years. In fact, his legacy would take a bigger hit if he flamed out on his next team. Look for Pioli/Dimetroff/Robinson to return as GM or someone is hired from the outside.

 

[Joey007]

I understand your point, but beg to differ. Referring to my first point, would a top free agent QB want to come play for Belichick given his track record of building an offense since Brady?

Agreed. I like what Ian is trying to come up with solution wise in theory. But this just sounds like a temporary band aid.

 

[Ring 6]

As I wrote, no one is going to want to come here if Belichick is fired and the quarterback is dealt, not without grossly overpaying them. That will last at least a couple of years until it reaches a point where players are comfortable with this team being a destination where they can be confident with both the team and their potential success. With Belichick still as coach, you can deal the QB and still have free agents who he can sit across from him and feel good about coming here, provided they have a reasonable plan moving forward.

The best path forward might be a compromise where Belichick stays, and someone is put in charge of selecting offensive players, with Belichick still having the final say among defensive selections.

I feel like most people here don't have an issue with Belichick's coaching, it's more about the team he's constructed, especially on offense. Obviously, those feelings are justified. So, having already started making some compromises, it makes sense for Bill to make one on the offensive side and trust whoever is making those decisions.

But firing him is going to be a major setback because we're going to be even further down the list than we already are, and despite the terrific amount of cap space, it won't matter if the people they try and spend it on decline to come here unless the Patriots outbid everybody. Then, that just creates a different problem that will make it tough to be competitive.

So if Bill will at least be flexible, if they can figure it out, there's continuity without the chaos and it's a smoother transition.

This isn’t really consistent with history though. Bad teams sign a lot of free agents.
Players all have their own reasons for making their choices. It’s been proven time and again, the record of the team is not always a determining factor. The jete have been a dumpster fire for years, yet they always sign high level free agents.
We are programmed to think that free agents are only worried about team success and getting a ring because we were that destination for 20 years, and for 20 years we were a minor free agent player. Every year we watch free agents leave contenders and go to lesser teams.
And the free agents you want are guys who are improving and looking for a bigger presence, bigger role, bigger star, not the ones who have already built a reputation and are about to decline.

That said, when you have the greatest architect of football Fran uses in your building you don’t get better by getting rid of him.
Somehow the thought process has become that being the best means being infallible and immune to any down period.

After going to 4 SBs in 5 years and winning 3 of them by running the organization with a goal to keep the run on for as long as possible, there was a price to be paid. (A pretty big chunk of that price was trying to scratch and claw to get one more year in 2019). Once it was over there was an huge uphill battle to get back.
It always amaze me his people expect you can have one without the other. The last 4 years could have been a lot better if we let the dynasty die in 2015.

From 2020 to today almost the entire roster has been overturned. More personnel decision has to be made in NE than virtually any where else because it was essentially a start from scratch. Personnel decisions in the NFL, , despite what you hear in this board are not easy successes. They are 50/50 at best.
Could better decisions have been made, of course, and that goes for every team ever. The idea that rebuilding from 2020 to now was some sort of easy thing and anyone who couldn’t do it is incompetent is foolish.

Belichick made the standard coaches statement when he said “start over”. But there is a lot to that. Organizationally changed should be made. The process to maintain a dynasty and the process to rebuild a new one are extremely different. But the man who built the greatest one ever is in the building. The future fortunes of the franchise rest in who sets up the structure of the organization going forward, and history says no one has been better at that than the guy currently in the chair.

 

[Joey007]

Jonnu Smith, Reiff, Harry, Parker, Anderson

I'm not going to sit here and list all the busts. It's been covered here ad nauseum and you watch the games.

This team isn't one QB away. There are massive problems, mainly on offense (yes, QB is one of them) that need to be addressed. And by "addressed" I don't mean picking G's and T's in the mid-rounds and signing guys in their mid-30's.

It’s funny though, becasue many teams have found great OL in the mid rounds. Look at what KC has done.

It’s more about the coaching, as well as the management identifying the right talent. This staff has just not hit in the mid rounds at OL since 15-16 besides Onwenu.

Hindsight says maybe we shouldn’t have been such tight wads over Thuney and Mason.

 

[archstanton543]

It's not bereft of talent. People who aren't twisted by the local media have evaluated the drafts and determined they've done well the last several years. Bargain bin? Are you expecting them to spend more than the $15m a year they've recently been spending on these guys?

Who do they have on offense? You asked me to list the busts, you list the talent on offense.

 

[Real fan 02]

That's going to be the question. They don't need a teardown, they're obviously in fairly good shape defensively and the drafts have been such for the last couple of years where they've got a good group of players on that side of the ball. Obviously, most of their issues are on offense, which is the root of what's wrong this year.

Again, if they continue to slide, the only way out is probably for Bill to concede on the offensive personnel and entrust someone else to evaluate and make that call, while he obviously handles the rest. If not, I don't see a path forward.

But all I'm saying is once he's gone, there's literally no draw to come here, especially if Mac is dealt. If they deal Mac and Bill's at least here, there's a reason aside from $$ for guys to be confident in potentially picking here over some where else. They don't have a Robert Saleh or a guy who coached elsewhere that landed here that has a history with anybody. Mayo obviously lacks that also. So you can't have a terrible team and have no relationship to leverage to lure guys here.

So aside from grossly overpaying, it doesn't matter how much money they have, it's going to be tough for them to get better quickly and that means more drafts and more years to become good enough where they're able to lure better talent here.

Again, they'd probably have a better shot next March of bringing guys in if Bill's still here. If he's not, it's probably going to be a problem.

Ultimately.. it's all going depend on what BB wants to do.. as RK said in his recent interview. This is his roster, he picked, signed the players and staffers. I believe as a fan it's likely time for a fresh start with a new GM/ coach as most do. However as you perfectly stated Ian it's tricky as well. Regardless I believe Mac is here bext year solely becuase of his salary. He's Making pennies as a starter.

Every position on offense needs upgrading starting with the O line.

On defense core pieces are Gonzo, Barmore, Dugger and Uche. The defensive line needs to be upgraded.

 

[Real fan 02]

There was a time the Patriots cycled through head coaches. What BB brought to New England was stability. That stability brought success that has been unparalleled in the history of the NFL.

A majority of that success was based on the work ethic of Tom Brady. Year in year out he did more than any team could possibly ask. I cannot stress how much he did for this team. At the same time BB kept this team competitive for not years, but decades. As good as Brady was, he couldn't do it alone.

That particular sentiment may not be fully appreciated by many posters here who fell into the rat trap of Tom vs Bill, which was relentlessly driven by sports talk talking heads. Why not, it lead to boffo ratings. Felger and Maz built a multi million dollar career doing it. Where they lead, others followed.

This team as it's currently constituted has talent on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The major ( in comparison ) deficiencies are on the offensive side of the balanced equation.

Sack Jones is not a great football player. But, grudgingly I admit, he's not as bad as some, including myself ( I don't like him, if that surprises anyone by now ) think. What he can't do, isn't good enough to do, is elevate the team in it's current state.

The first most important task to do moving forward is not add a wr1 etc... It's fixing the line. It's paramount to mine free agency and the draft at the tackle position. Priority number 1. The interior of the line can compensate for its flaws if the tackle play is better. Get rid of TBrown, turn Conor McDermott into a Russ Hochstein-like swing tackle for depth. If that's done, the offense, and by extension Sack Jones's play will improve.

Getting rid of Bill is a mistake. Getting him help to address the short comings is the correct avenue to take so we can take advantage of his abilities.

and @Ian, nice article. I enjoyed reading it.


just my 2 cents on the topic at hand.

Great post. Here is something that many haven't made mention of. What if BB decides he wants to walk away? What if his expiring contract he doesn't want to renew ? I agree BB the "COACH" I don't want to replace. He isn't going to take a lesser role of not having GM duties after he's done them for 23 seasons. So many variables, so much to wonder.