NEW ARTICLE: Fire Belichick? That One May Complicate Patriots’ Future Even Further

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Fire Belichick? That One May Complicate Patriots’ Future Even Further
Ian Logue
It’s probably safe to say that for anyone hoping that Bill Belichick’s collapse continues, the future may not look as bright as people might think.

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[captain stone]

#FireTheGroceryShopperNOW

#AndAlGroh'sKidToo

 

[archstanton543]

The bandaid is going to have to come off sooner or later. What better time than when your team is going to be picking in the Top 10 (at least), have a bunch of expiring contracts and are going to be flush with cash next year? It's a great spot to put your next GM and coach.

That is, unless, Ian, you see a way forward with this group of players. As others have asked, who on this team do you build around (especially on offense)?

 

[Ian]

The bandaid is going to have to come off sooner or later. What better time than when your team is going to be picking in the Top 10 (at least), have a bunch of expiring contracts and are going to be flush with cash next year? It's a great spot to put your next GM and coach.

That is, unless, Ian, you see a way forward with this group of players. As others have asked, who on this team do you build around (especially on offense)?

As I wrote, no one is going to want to come here if Belichick is fired and the quarterback is dealt, not without grossly overpaying them. That will last at least a couple of years until it reaches a point where players are comfortable with this team being a destination where they can be confident with both the team and their potential success. With Belichick still as coach, you can deal the QB and still have free agents who he can sit across from him and feel good about coming here, provided they have a reasonable plan moving forward.

The best path forward might be a compromise where Belichick stays, and someone is put in charge of selecting offensive players, with Belichick still having the final say among defensive selections.

I feel like most people here don't have an issue with Belichick's coaching, it's more about the team he's constructed, especially on offense. Obviously, those feelings are justified. So, having already started making some compromises, it makes sense for Bill to make one on the offensive side and trust whoever is making those decisions.

But firing him is going to be a major setback because we're going to be even further down the list than we already are, and despite the terrific amount of cap space, it won't matter if the people they try and spend it on decline to come here unless the Patriots outbid everybody. Then, that just creates a different problem that will make it tough to be competitive.

So if Bill will at least be flexible, if they can figure it out, there's continuity without the chaos and it's a smoother transition.

 

[archstanton543]

You can't separate BB the coach from BB the GM. And unless he's going to coach/GM until he's pushing 80, he just doesn't have enough time on the clock for a head-to-toe rebuild. I don't have faith that he can draft the next core of guys...not based on what he's done the last 5 years. If the Pats are going to be terrible regardless, why not get a fresh start?

 

[Thelonious]

It would be simpler, I suppose, to let this dreary nonsense play out, but that would be the only virtue of allowing that to happen.

These things are cyclical, and if we do not have the courage to recognize where we are in that cycle, we will remain in the doldrums drowning in false hopes for an effortlessly brighter day.

Step one in any rehabilitation is demolition.

It's the old wheel of fortune:

It's time for Kali:

That's Bill's head you see there. The guy chillaxing is ...uhh...Mayo?

 

[Ian]

You can't separate BB the coach from BB the GM. And unless he's going to coach/GM until he's pushing 80, he just doesn't have enough time on the clock for a head-to-toe rebuild. I don't have faith that he can draft the next core of guys...not based on what he's done the last 5 years. If the Pats are going to be terrible regardless, why not get a fresh start?

That's going to be the question. They don't need a teardown, they're obviously in fairly good shape defensively and the drafts have been such for the last couple of years where they've got a good group of players on that side of the ball. Obviously, most of their issues are on offense, which is the root of what's wrong this year.

Again, if they continue to slide, the only way out is probably for Bill to concede on the offensive personnel and entrust someone else to evaluate and make that call, while he obviously handles the rest. If not, I don't see a path forward.

But all I'm saying is once he's gone, there's literally no draw to come here, especially if Mac is dealt. If they deal Mac and Bill's at least here, there's a reason aside from $$ for guys to be confident in potentially picking here over some where else. They don't have a Robert Saleh or a guy who coached elsewhere that landed here that has a history with anybody. Mayo obviously lacks that also. So you can't have a terrible team and have no relationship to leverage to lure guys here.

So aside from grossly overpaying, it doesn't matter how much money they have, it's going to be tough for them to get better quickly and that means more drafts and more years to become good enough where they're able to lure better talent here.

Again, they'd probably have a better shot next March of bringing guys in if Bill's still here. If he's not, it's probably going to be a problem.

 

[Thelonious]

"But all I'm saying is once he's gone, there's literally no draw to come here, especially if Mac is dealt."

I think your argument fails here. 1) I don't at all see Mac as a "draw.", 2) I don't at all see the current iteration of Bill (nor in some respects the previous ones) as a draw either. He is the head coach and GM of what is likely the worst team in the league, and if you are looking for fun times, he ain't your guy. It used to be that if you were intetested in winning, he was your guy, but not any more, not literally now for years.

I do not think this is a time for half measures, I think we are far too fearful of tearing down and starting over, and I see NO prospect that titivating and primping at the margins of this dreadful team will accomplish a thing.

It's time to rebuild. Step one, as always, is demolition.

 

[Ian]

"But all I'm saying is once he's gone, there's literally no draw to come here, especially if Mac is dealt."

I think your argument fails here. 1) I don't at all see Mac as a "draw."

Completely agree 100%, Mac absolutely is not - but without Bill, especially since they don't a viable QB, there's zero reason for a quality wideout to pick here over elsewhere. At least with Bill, he can sit across from you and convince you to come here.

2) I don't at all see the current iteration of Bill (nor in some respects the previous ones) as a draw either. He is the head coach and GM of what is likely the worst team in the league, and if you are looking for fun times, he ain't your guy. It used to be that if you were intetested in winning, he was your guy, but not any more, not literally now for years.

Bill still matters. You might not think so because of the state of the team, but his influence is significant and he's obviously established relationships with various players who obviously - Asante Samuel aside - speak highly of him.

I do not think this is a time for half measures, I think we are far too fearful of tearing down and starting over, and I see NO prospect that titivating and primping at the margins of this dreadful team will accomplish a thing.

It's time to rebuild. Step one, as always, is demolition.

And it wouldn't be a half measure. Bill is still on top of his X's and O's, they just lack offensive talent. He brought in Bill O'Brien and loosened the reigns there, so it may make sense to compromise personnel-wise by potentially ceding offensive players to someone else. Obviously, it could be discussed with him, but someone else would have final say there.

 

[Thelonious]

Completely agree 100%, Mac absolutely is not - but without Bill, especially since they don't a viable QB, there's zero reason for a quality wideout to pick here over elsewhere. At least with Bill, he can sit across from you and convince you to come here.

Bill still matters. You might not think so because of the state of the team, but his influence is significant and he's obviously established relationships with various players who obviously - Asante Samuel aside - speak highly of him.

And it wouldn't be a half measure. Bill is still on top of his X's and O's, they just lack offensive talent. He brought in Bill O'Brien and loosened the reigns there, so it may make sense to compromise personnel-wise by potentially ceding offensive players to someone else. Obviously, it could be discussed with him, but someone else would have final say there.

Fair enough. i think you have a good point in pushing back on the ''half measure" business, but I think your point bears only on retaining Bill as HC, something I actually could live with, notwithstanding that I do see worrisome signs there as well. I would insist he must be deprived of all prerogatives and responsibilities related to GM work, except when his input is solicited by the GM, who may follow or not follow Bil's advice at his own discretion.




'

 

[Ian]

Fair enough. i think you have a good point in pushing back on the ''half measure" business, but I think your point bears only on retaining Bill as HC, something I actually could live with, notwithstanding that I do see worrisome signs there as well. I would insist he must be deprived of all prerogatives and responsibilities related to GM work, except when his input is solicited by the GM, who may follow or not follow Bil's advice at his own discretion.




'

Whoever would be in that position would also have to have the support of ownership to not have to worry about it. And it's not necessarily someone else entirely running the show. My suggestion is basically a situation of Bill and whoever agreeing they need an OT, WR, or whatever, and letting that person go get them and keeping Bill out of it.

 

[raduray]

Interesting article, but I disagree with two of your premises. First, that players still want to come play for Belichick. Second, that, for the most part, players will not come to the team offering the most money.

 

[Ian]

Interesting article, but I disagree with two of your premises. First, that players still want to come play for Belichick. Second, that, for the most part, players will not come to the team offering the most money.

They absolutely will - but my concern is that if it comes down to comparable offers from a competitive team vs a non-competitive team - especially ones with a lot of unknowns like New England - it may require the club to go above market value to potentially land that player.

Again, if they're trying to land a top-end receiver, that receiver is going to want to play for a good quarterback on a competitive team. If a team like the Patriots, who may not have a proven QB next year, tries to sign one, it will probably be more difficult to convince someone to come here vs somewhere else without overpaying them, especially if it isn't Belichick selling them.

The Patriots can have all the money in the world, but if they're not willing to go above market value, which history has shown they typically won't, we're going to potentially see a lot of the same problems.

Maybe they get a midtier guy or two, but probably still not someone who moves the needle. It may be tough to get one of those guys without going above market value, which could make things difficult. I mean, these are typically guys who will also be looking to perform well enough to maximize whatever incentives and be productive while also setting themselves up for their next contract.

There will probably be a lot of uncertainty there, which might mean the only way they may pick here is if they overpay and guarantee a lot or most of their deal to get one given the position they'll be in by then. I feel like people underestimate how hard it's going to be to truly get quality guys to come here in the first year or two - if he's gone - without a quarterback.

 

[raduray]

They absolutely will - but my concern is that if it comes down to comparable offers from a competitive team vs a non-competitive team - especially ones with a lot of unknowns like New England - it may require the club to go above market value to potentially land that player.

Again, if they're trying to land a top-end receiver, that receiver is going to want to play for a good quarterback on a competitive team. If a team like the Patriots, who may not have a proven QB next year, tries to sign one, it will probably be more difficult to convince someone to come here vs somewhere else without overpaying them, especially if it isn't Belichick selling them.

The Patriots can have all the money in the world, but if they're not willing to go above market value, which history has shown they typically won't, we're going to potentially see a lot of the same problems.

Maybe they get a midtier guy or two, but probably still not someone who moves the needle. It may be tough to get one of those guys without going above market value, which could make things difficult. I mean, these are typically guys who will also be looking to perform well enough to maximize whatever incentives and be productive while also setting themselves up for their next contract.

There will probably be a lot of uncertainty there, which might mean the only way they may pick here is if they overpay and guarantee a lot or most of their deal to get one given the position they'll be in by then. I feel like people underestimate how hard it's going to be to truly get quality guys to come here in the first year or two - if he's gone - without a quarterback.

I understand your point, but beg to differ. Referring to my first point, would a top free agent QB want to come play for Belichick given his track record of building an offense since Brady?

 

[venecol]

This is a terrible idea. It'll become clearer as the season plays out.

1. Based on Belichicks performance the last 4 years, Belichick would fire Belichick. Why should he be treated different than any other player/HC that isn't productive.

2. The main issue is the offense. No talented offensive FA wants to come play for Belichick after the fiasco he put out the last 2 years. He can still attract D players but hell no on O players.

3. If you keep Belichick as HC, the O scheme stays the same. That's half the problem. Bill is old fashioned, doesn't believe in analytics and can't evaluate O talent. He's been outcoached by a bunch of young coaches the last few years.

4. There's zero chance a half measure would work for multiple reasons:
A. Belichick would never agree.
B. It's bad policy to keep a demoted employee (Bill) that could negatively affect the new order.
C. It's bad business. Kraft is too smart of a business man to allow a half measure.

5. Tear it all down. Money shouldn't be a factor.
A. Hire (steal / trade) a top GM.
B. Hire (steal / trade) a young offensive minded HC.
C. Let them put together a staff of OC/ DC/ QBC, etc. that can connect with new generation of players.
D. Let them put together a team that fits the modern O philosophy/schemes.
E. Give them 3 yrs to make it all work.

6. I know it's hard but it's time to completely bury the ashes of the now defunct dynasty.

 

[venecol]

Step one in any rehabilitation is demolition.

It's time for Kali:

That's Bill's head you see there. The guy chillaxing is ...uhh...Mayo?

Agree but no Mayo. Need an offensive HC. If new GM and HC want to keep Mayo as DC so be it.

 

[SVN]

As I wrote, no one is going to want to come here if Belichick is fired and the quarterback is dealt, not without grossly overpaying them. That will last at least a couple of years until it reaches a point where players are comfortable with this team being a destination where they can be confident with both the team and their potential success. With Belichick still as coach, you can deal the QB and still have free agents who he can sit across from him and feel good about coming here, provided they have a reasonable plan moving forward.

The best path forward might be a compromise where Belichick stays, and someone is put in charge of selecting offensive players, with Belichick still having the final say among defensive selections.

I feel like most people here don't have an issue with Belichick's coaching, it's more about the team he's constructed, especially on offense. Obviously, those feelings are justified. So, having already started making some compromises, it makes sense for Bill to make one on the offensive side and trust whoever is making those decisions.

But firing him is going to be a major setback because we're going to be even further down the list than we already are, and despite the terrific amount of cap space, it won't matter if the people they try and spend it on decline to come here unless the Patriots outbid everybody. Then, that just creates a different problem that will make it tough to be competitive.

So if Bill will at least be flexible, if they can figure it out, there's continuity without the chaos and it's a smoother transition.

Wait till they fire BB and the next guy who comes in and sells the draft and picks to win now and if that doesnt happen, we enter purgatory again.
Unless they find a QB it wont matter who is coaching.
On a side note - its kinda sad to see every other thread devoted to fire BB or who should be traded before the deadline . I mean we are 1-5 and its understandable but let it play out a bit no? Lions were 1-6 last yr too if i am not mistaken .Look where they are now.

 

[venecol]

This whole argument is over blown. Look at McDaniel in Miami. Rookie HC. Comes in and turns the team around offensively. Tua was nothing special before last season. They get a blue chip WR in the draft, bring in a top 5 WR in FAcy and the HC is kicking ass on offense. He's a football nerd that his players find weird AF but has them buying in because he connects with them. Oh, he's also 2-1 against Bill.

Same thing can happen here, albeit we need more weapons: QB in Rd 1, OT, WR in 2-3. Bring in a WR1, OL in FAcy. It'll take more than a year but the notion Bill is the only HC that can make this team competitive is nonsense. He tried for 4 years and failed. Time to give the new guy a chance.

 

[RIpats88]

considering how bad Bill botched this offensive roster/the draft/free agency. and how he handled Mac jones, why do we want to put him in charge again?

whatever you feel about Mac jones, how he handled having a young QB on a rookie deal is malpractice and basically ruined mac jones. lets look at what Miami/bengals/eagles did. look at san francisco with Purdy. (not comparing mac to those guys). they go out and surround their young QB with an elite receiver to make them comfortable and put together a strong OL/run game to help the QB out. people forget Hurts/Tua were nothing special before AJ brown/hill&waddle/mcdaniels. even KC. they didn't throw mahomes to the wolves. they had a solid roster with alex smith and handed him a good situation to learn and improve in.

now look at Patriots. replace McDaniels with Patricia/judge who had no idea how to run an offense. so ok you get O'brien who is a real OC. so now your QB is on their 3rd OC in 3 years. no continuity.

then, instead of using the money savings from having a QB on a rookie contact to bolster the team around them and do everything you can to ensure they are successful., you instead are 31'st in spending. give them an OL that has borderline NFL players and sign "stink stank stunk" at receiver, letting go his favorite target. and ask them to win while learning on the job....

now he might have always sucked. but you never will know. they were on a good trajectory with McDaniels. maybe never would've been a superbowl team. but 10 wins, had him playing okay ball as a game manager. didnt ask him to do too much.

instead of building on that by hiring offensive minds and upping the talent level from 2021 we went backwards. decreased the talent and coaching.

and people want to hand Bill a top 5 QB prospect and have him do the same? Take a new QB and put them behind this line with mediocre receivers and tell them to "win with what you have". They will be ruined within a year.

get a new coach/GM. draft a QB high. then let him sit behind Mac for a year (hes still on a rookie deal) because this roster is going to take YEARS to rebuild with the amount of holes Bill created.

 

[Pape]

There was a time the Patriots cycled through head coaches. What BB brought to New England was stability. That stability brought success that has been unparalleled in the history of the NFL.

A majority of that success was based on the work ethic of Tom Brady. Year in year out he did more than any team could possibly ask. I cannot stress how much he did for this team. At the same time BB kept this team competitive for not years, but decades. As good as Brady was, he couldn't do it alone.

That particular sentiment may not be fully appreciated by many posters here who fell into the rat trap of Tom vs Bill, which was relentlessly driven by sports talk talking heads. Why not, it lead to boffo ratings. Felger and Maz built a multi million dollar career doing it. Where they lead, others followed.

This team as it's currently constituted has talent on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The major ( in comparison ) deficiencies are on the offensive side of the balanced equation.

Sack Jones is not a great football player. But, grudgingly I admit, he's not as bad as some, including myself ( I don't like him, if that surprises anyone by now ) think. What he can't do, isn't good enough to do, is elevate the team in it's current state.

The first most important task to do moving forward is not add a wr1 etc... It's fixing the line. It's paramount to mine free agency and the draft at the tackle position. Priority number 1. The interior of the line can compensate for its flaws if the tackle play is better. Get rid of TBrown, turn Conor McDermott into a Russ Hochstein-like swing tackle for depth. If that's done, the offense, and by extension Sack Jones's play will improve.

Getting rid of Bill is a mistake. Getting him help to address the short comings is the correct avenue to take so we can take advantage of his abilities.

and @Ian, nice article. I enjoyed reading it.


just my 2 cents on the topic at hand.