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Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by PonyExpress, Apr 8, 2008.

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  1. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    A few different scenarios. I'm using this PFW draft value chart, which is supposedly based on feedback from NFL teams, on where players are likely to come of the board.

    http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Draft Extras/2008/value040808.htm

    Based on 3 year averages, PFW's top 100 and mock draft accuracy run a close 2nd behind Gosselin among major publications, ahead of NFL draft scout, Scott Wright, Scouts Inc. and Mel Kiper.

    http://www.thehuddlereport.com/FREE_CONTENT/top100mock.shtml

    The PFW chart is very different from other sources and there are a few stunners at this early stage. I was very surprised where Goff, Cason and Groves are listed (IOW, much lower than elsewhere). By draft time this chart will probably be more in tune with reality, so I'm going to continue using it until then as more info becomes available, and change my mocks accordingly. Also, Aqib Talib is apparently off many NFL boards due to drug use, so he's off mine.

    Scenario 1: Chris Long drops to #5

    Pats trade #7 and #69 for #5: OLB Chris Long
    #63: CB Antone Cason (I apologize to "Nepatriots" for criticizing that Cason would not be available here. It looks like he may be, according to PFW)
    #94: OT Duane Brown
    #129: DE Demario Pressley
    #164: DB Molden
    #197: LB Goff
    #238: FB Schmitt

    Scenario 2. Long is gone before #5, Gholston drops to #7.

    #7: OLB Gholston
    #63: TE Carlson
    #69: CB Cason
    #94: OT Duane Brown
    #129: DE D. Pressley
    #164: DB A. Molden
    #197: ILB Goff
    #238: FB Schmitt

    Scenario 3: Long is gone before #5, Gholston is gone before #7

    #7: OT Clady
    #63: OLB Avril
    #69: CB Cason
    #94: NT Red Bryant/NT Okam
    #129: QB E. Ainge
    #164: DB Molden
    #197: ILB Goff
    #238: FB Schmitt

    Scenario 4: C. Long is gone before #5, Gholston and Clady are gone before #7.

    #7: NT S. Ellis
    #63: OLB Avril
    #69: CB Cason
    #94: OT Duane Brown
    #129: QB E. Ainge
    #164: DB Molden
    #197: ILB Goff
    #238: FB Schmitt

    The variables involved in trade downs are too complicated for me at this point. If Ryan falls we will have hit the jackpot.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2008
  2. BradyToMoss

    BradyToMoss Guest

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    OK, with all that said, I think we can pretty much ignore Scenarios (1 and 2) because those scenarios are simply not going to play out. Scenario 3 is the most realistic and it looks good. I actually had the Pats taking Ainge right around where PFW has us taking him and I got lambasted by DaBruinz who thinks that the Matt Cassell/Gutierrez tandem is our answer.

    Vic Carrucci down towards the bottom of the mock draft 3 year average ratio, I'm not surprised, he's the same rocket scientist that came on EEI and predicted a Jags playoff win at Foxboro.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 8, 2008
  3. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I like all your personalities recognizing our need of a pass rushing OLB. But I think every one of your picks(from 69 and back) will be taken before your draft position. Clady can only play T, if we go OL he must play more than 1 position(albert). I think the VALUE in trading up for Long is that he can play BOTH ILB and OLB for us. I dont have the same confidence in Gholston, but would almost have to take him at 7. One thing is for certain, you dont take a 2 down LB at 7.
     
  4. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    Don't be so sure Scenario 1 won't play out. It looks like Chris Long may have run a 4.81 and a 4.84 40 yd at the combine, not the 4.75 elsewhere reported.

    http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Draft Extras/2008/combineDE.htm

    If those 4.8 times are correct, or are what NFL teams have on record, Long could very well drop out of the top 5. Al Davis isn't likely to hand a player 50 million dollars when the player doesn't meet his height weight standards, and he is very particular on that. I also doubt Parcells will draft C. Long, because he is very conscious of combine speed. He learned at the feet of Al Davis, and just listen to him talk about the way he evaluated M. Williams a few years ago. KC is stacked at DE as well. It looks to me like C. Long dropping is a real possibility. He is projected to LDE in the 4-3, not the crash end position, which means 4-3 teams give less value to him.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2008
  5. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

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    I think you undervalue Clady. Clady is the only elite LT prospect in this draft. Albert has only played 2 games at the position. Clady is 6'6'', with 37'' arms, with +30" VJ and ran a 7.07 3-cone. If you watch him block it is effortless, like he is listening to classical music in his helmet. Albert looks very impressive, yes, but there is only value there if you believe he will play LT at an elite level. The problem is, he has never done so. It looks to me like he stands up a bit straight in his backpedal and tends to lose balance, kind of like Cherilus. That could probably be corrected with more reps at tackle. But a projection of that magnitude involves a great deal of risk.

    As far as players coming off the board too late in my mock, I thought so as well initially. However, why do we think so? It's because we are engaged in group think on this board, not that group think is necessarily wrong. But we are getting all our info from the same sources: NFldraftscout, NFLdraftcountdown, Mayock, and ESPN. But I just linked to an accuracy ranking and it shows that PFW has been more accurate than all those sources over the past 3 years when it comes to top 100 and mock draft scores. The reason it is more accurate is that it's inside sources have been better. If they were better the last few years, they are likely to be better this coming year. Therefore the value chart I used for my mock may be more accurate than the ones we have been using up to now. And our preconceptions about where players will come off the board may be wrong.

    Also, we are assuming (on this board) that the players we keep feeding to each other are equally coveted by other fan bases and actual teams. However, Avril is not a quality prospect at DE but at 3-4 OLB; so 4-3 teams aren't going to value him highly. Cason is slower than many of the other cb prospects. Groves had a very poor senior season. Goff does not look like a good 4-3 fit. Carlson carries questionmarks. Schmitt plays at a position of little value. Duane Brown is extremely raw and not book smart. Pressley was inconsistent. Okam was lazy; Molden played against sub-par competition, and may be better at safety than cb.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2008
  6. NePatriots

    NePatriots PatsFans.com Draftnik PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Apology accepted. I see Cason going later than most, and am very happy about it.
     
  7. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    That's a good point. Players that will fit our system or are perceived to be "patriot type" players are valued more highly here. But teams that run 4-3 defenses, have different systems or philosophies, etc. will value other players higher. So let's hope this leads to the players we want being pushed down to the Pats picks. :)

     
  8. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    This scenario would be my choice by far.

    #7: OT Clady - I fluctuate between Clady and Albert as to which would be more valuable to BB. The sense here is, he'd prefer one of the large bodies at #7. Is it at all possible for Light to play RT when Clady is ready to start? Clady seems to be destined for the left side. Or do we just plug in Clady at RT? Albert has the versatility thing going for him. Not much has been noted that he played LG only, perhaps making the switch to Neal's side a bit more difficult. RT is also a possibility, although some are saying he has LT potential. Either way, they're both ranked top 10.

    #63: OLB Avril - is who I would've chosen in the other thread, but they've changed their rankings now (have him at # 46)

    #69: CB Cason -- the #2 ranked player overall on my board (at all positions) says it all. He's now ranked at #86

    #94: NT Red Bryant/NT Okam - very high on Bryant and Ahtyba Rubin for Wilfork's role. They now have Red ranked at #91

    #129: QB E. Ainge - will admit to not focusing on any QBs this draft. Have seen his team several times -- but no notes on Ainge

    #164: DB Molden - now ranked at #168, this portion of the draft isn't too risky to gamble on his athleticism

    #197: ILB Goff - low risk -- high reward -- why not...

    #238: FB Schmitt - would be a fan favorite
     
  9. rookBoston

    rookBoston 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    Scenario 4 seems most likely... although I dont share your infatuation with Clady. I think the choice at #7 is Derrick Harvey. The dropoff from Long to Gholston to Harvey is really not as big as we've been making it out.
     
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