More statistical significance to this season

[Kato]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7549272

Notes:

In 2007, Tom Brady has 4 of the top 10 games in the DPAR era (1996-present).

He has now has the highest total DPAR for a season passing Peyton Manning's total from 2004 and 2006.

No other quarterback has ever thrown less than 8 INTs with 500 attempts. Brady now has 476 attempts and 5 picks.

Randy Moss has the second best total DPAR for a season, just behind Marvin Harrison from 2001 (50.9 to 51.4), with three games to go.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7549272

Notes:

In 2007, Tom Brady has 4 of the top 10 games in the DPAR era (1996-present).

He has now has the highest total DPAR for a season passing Peyton Manning's total from 2004 and 2006.

No other quarterback has ever thrown less than 8 INTs with 500 attempts. Brady now has 476 attempts and 5 picks.

Randy Moss has the second best total DPAR for a season, just behind Marvin Harrison from 2001 (50.9 to 51.4), with three games to go.

DPAR? Mein Gotze, is football going to go the way of baseball a' la VORP, RARP, EqA type stats? Congrats to Tom anyway, just keep stacking up the HOF material, and the super bowl trophies.

 

[makewayhomer]

DPAR? Mein Gotze, is football going to go the way of baseball a' la VORP, RARP, EqA type stats?

yes.

stats have always been used in both football and baseball. (batting average, RBI, yards rushing, etc etc). it's just that the newer stats do a better job than the older ones. exhibit A being our Red Sox.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

yes.

stats have always been used in both football and baseball. (batting average, RBI, yards rushing, etc etc). it's just that the newer stats do a better job than the older ones. exhibit A being our Red Sox.

OK, but sometimes I think some of the new stats are just somebody's way of trying to get recognition for himself, and there are so many of them, in baseball especially. Jim Brown averaged 5.2 YPC for his entire career.

 

[Nordy]

yes.

stats have always been used in both football and baseball. (batting average, RBI, yards rushing, etc etc). it's just that the newer stats do a better job than the older ones. exhibit A being our Red Sox.

Sabermetrics work much better in baseball, which is more of an individual sport.

 

[Wax Frog]

Just looked it up. Thanks for the unintended humor...

 

[makewayhomer]

Sabermetrics work much better in baseball, which is more of an individual sport.

sure, but that doesn't mean they can't be/aren't useful for football. the advanced football metrics do a great job of measuring team units (ie offense, defense, special teams).

 

[onegameatatime]

Sabermetrics work much better in baseball, which is more of an individual sport.

Partly individuality, but also partly because it's easier to reduce each baseball situation -- count, runners, and outs to a state. There are 3 possible number of outs (0, 1, 2), 7 possible sets of runners on base, and 12 counts.

Football has a clock, so giving up a 60 yard FG drive that takes 6 minutes when you have a 20-point lead in the 4th is a good thing, but not good on an opening drive. A HR is never a bad thing, although it might have more value in some circumstances than others; a strikeout is never a good thing.

Plus, because of the significance of first downs, a statistically bad play can be a good play -- like when Maroney has third and inches and gets 1 yard.

 

[makewayhomer]

Partly individuality, but also partly because it's easier to reduce each baseball situation -- count, runners, and outs to a state.

just like down and distance

a strikeout is never a good thing.

on balance, a strikeout is actually no worse than any other out. it's better than a double play. Theo Epstein understands this, most fans don't.

Plus, because of the significance of first downs, a statistically bad play can be a good play -- like when Maroney has third and inches and gets 1 yard.

you've just made the case for DPAR. DPAR considers that a 1 yard run on 4th and inches is a success, while a 1 yard run on 1st and 10 isn't. traditional stats see it as 1 yard, either way.

 

[onegameatatime]

just like down and distance


on balance, a strikeout is actually no worse than any other out. it's better than a double play. Theo Epstein understands this, most fans don't.

you've just made the case for DPAR. DPAR considers that a 1 yard run on 4th and inches is a success, while a 1 yard run on 1st and 10 isn't. traditional stats see it as 1 yard, either way.

I never said it can't be done, but it is harder, and I think a little less revealing. I know Footballoutsider tries to account for these factors with a point system.

A strikeout is still never a good thing. Saying that is like saying a sack is not bad because there could have been a fumble or interception. With strikeouts, I believe the Sabermetricians have found that there's minimal difference overall between a strikeout and putting the ball in play -- balancing the risk of a DP vs. moving the runner. (The Bellhorn defense)

It's still hard to account for the clock in football because it affects not just individual plays, but a whole drive. Consider Sunday -- Pats go 70 yards in 6.5 minutes with all passing and get a FG. Great drive. Steelers go similar distance and time, pass on the FG and get stuffed at the 1. A FG would not have been a good drive.

 

[onegameatatime]

just like down and distance




on balance, a strikeout is actually no worse than any other out. it's better than a double play. Theo Epstein understands this, most fans don't.



you've just made the case for DPAR. DPAR considers that a 1 yard run on 4th and inches is a success, while a 1 yard run on 1st and 10 isn't. traditional stats see it as 1 yard, either way.

Down and distance is also not the same. In baseball, you can look at each state, and based on extensive history, figure a probability of winning or scoring.

This would be hard in football where you have 4 downs, 1 inch to 20 yards to go, 99 yards, and the clock which is hard to factor. Possible? Maybe, but very tough.

 

[makewayhomer]

It's still hard to account for the clock in football because it affects not just individual plays, but a whole drive. Consider Sunday -- Pats go 70 yards in 6.5 minutes with all passing and get a FG. Great drive. Steelers go similar distance and time, pass on the FG and get stuffed at the 1. A FG would not have been a good drive.

DPAR/DVOA does take various factors into account. I agree it's difficult - it's an extremely manual process for them to do all this

"Every single play run in the NFL gets a "success value" based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and current scoring lead or deficit."

edit: if you want to read about their methods, see here


"THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on 3rd-and-4 are worth more than five yards on 1st-and-10 and much more than five yards on 3rd-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent."