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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.Poll said:
Would be nice if it turns out that way. Even if he is a stable rock for the next 5-6 years I am happy about that as well. One thing about BB and SP, they miss on very few first day draft picks- especially 1st rounders. So I hope Mankins continues that trend. Peter King said in this past Tuesdays MMQB, that he scored our 2001 draft low because you are EXPECTED to hit on your 1st round picks (Seymore). Plus Matt Light in the 2nd (rest was crap). But Peter doesn't give enough credit were credit is due. If you don't hit on your first (as BB / SP have done time and time again), there are significant costs to pay. 1) the $$ for the 1st round bust. 2) the $$$ for the Free Agent (three years later) to fix the problem the bust was supposed to fill. 3) loss of productivity from the player that you COULD have taken ie. Seymore over Sullivan - case in point.Richter said:Mankins, on the other hand, could be our best offensive lineman early in the season, even if Light and Koppen are healthy and playing. He's that good.
SunnyDenmark said:....
If you don't hit on your first (as BB / SP have done time and time again), there are significant costs to pay. 1) the $$ for the 1st round bust.
2) the $$$ for the Free Agent (three years later) to fix the problem the bust was supposed to fill.
3) loss of productivity from the player that you COULD have taken ie. Seymore over Sullivan - case in point.
flutie2phelan said:Sharp insight, Sunny!
I hadn't been conscious of just how much a bad early pick can cost.
So true especially due to the salary cap structure. Can't just buy your way out of bad drafts (not long term anyhow) like you can in baseball. I did an informal quick analysis of BB / SP drafts a few months ago and I was amazed how they routinely hit on their first day selections. Not all are starters mind you, but even making the team gives depth at a cheap cost. In the middle rounds , we seem to be at the NFL average which I read somewhere was about 50/50% (or somewhere in the ballpark -alittle less probably - don't shoot me). So BB / SP didn't seem so impressive there I remember thinking when I did my calculations and compared to the NFL average. Then again - with the Pats having a solid 'middle class' and being yearly contenders with good depth- to have the same odds of making the team as the NFL average, that is not too shabby. But what really amazed me was their late round picks. Those averages were quite low I remember - something like 15-25%. BB / SP not only beat the average but they occastionally found real quality starters - diamonds in the rough if you will. Kevin Faulk, Patrick Pass, Dan Koppen, David Givens, ..etc. ..much higher than the NFL average in this short period of time (last 7 years). Oh yes, there was also some late round QB drafted as well named Bradley ? I think he stayed on the team for a number of years as well. Grin.Richter said:.....When you mix in some nice finds from the 4th round and later, you're playing for championships regularly. There can really be no doubt that great teams are built in the draft.
SunnyDenmark said:3) loss of productivity from the player that you COULD have taken ie. Seymore over Sullivan - case in point.
Here's a layout of what has happened over the last few years for the Pats drafts. I did only 2001 thru 2005 since 2000 was probably not a BB/SP full scouting and evaluation effort:SunnyDenmark said:So true especially due to the salary cap structure. Can't just buy your way out of bad drafts (not long term anyhow) like you can in baseball. I did an informal quick analysis of BB / SP drafts a few months ago and I was amazed how they routinely hit on their first day selections. Not all are starters mind you, but even making the team gives depth at a cheap cost. In the middle rounds , we seem to be at the NFL average which I read somewhere was about 50/50% (or somewhere in the ballpark -alittle less probably - don't shoot me). So BB / SP didn't seem so impressive there I remember thinking when I did my calculations and compared to the NFL average. Then again - with the Pats having a solid 'middle class' and being yearly contenders with good depth- to have the same odds of making the team as the NFL average, that is not too shabby. But what really amazed me was their late round picks. Those averages were quite low I remember - something like 15-25%. BB / SP not only beat the average but they occastionally found real quality starters - diamonds in the rough if you will. Kevin Faulk, Patrick Pass, Dan Koppen, David Givens, ..etc. ..much higher than the NFL average in this short period of time (last 7 years). Oh yes, there was also some late round QB drafted as well named Bradley ? I think he stayed on the team for a number of years as well. Grin.
A good summation bee, but I must object to your characterization of Davey...a three year reserve QB out of the 4th round is a successful draft. Any player that makes the roster out of the draft is a win, a second day player making the roster is a drafting success. Davey played his assigned role on the team and made the roster - that says it all on a Belichick coached team.arrellbee said:4th round: Gets MUCH more problematic. That's why rounds 1 thru 3 are so crucial. Only 4 out of 9 still on the roster - less than 50%. But, 4th round is still important. Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are important players. Klecko and Sanders are perhaps borderline - but there have been any number of borderline players who became really important contributors later. Players who didn't work out: Davey, Cobb, Haloway, Kenyatta Jones
Box_O_Rocks said:A good summation bee, but I must object to your characterization of Davey...a three year reserve QB out of the 4th round is a successful draft. Any player that makes the roster out of the draft is a win, a second day player making the roster is a drafting success. Davey played his assigned role on the team and made the roster - that says it all on a Belichick coached team.
Yes, Jones made the roster, a successful draft. If someone else beat him out later, it is still a success since you obviously need continuous improvement at every position to be championship contenders.Richter said:I agree. Even Kenyatta Jones contributed on the field, so it's hard to call him a flat out bust. Brock Williams and Hakim Akbar were both injury busts in that draft, so it's hard to really count them against the Pats track record too. It seems like the first two picks of every draft are successful for this regime, and they hit on 2 or 3 more in the rest of the draft. I bet if you averaged out the number of contributing players per draft, it'd be in the high 3s, say 3.8 or so per draft. That's outstanding.
Actually, the huge surprise to me was that Davey was on the 53 man roster in 2004. The only thing I can think of was that he had some value for the scout team. It really didn't seem like he was even capable of playing any real number of effective passing downs in NFL game play. If he had been the only option to play QB, it would likely have been a disaster. With his 17 attempts in 2003 and 2004 he had 7 completions (about 41%), not that that is much of a sample.Box_O_Rocks said:A good summation bee, but I must object to your characterization of Davey...a three year reserve QB out of the 4th round is a successful draft. Any player that makes the roster out of the draft is a win, a second day player making the roster is a drafting success. Davey played his assigned role on the team and made the roster - that says it all on a Belichick coached team.