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Looking at QB Sacks vs. Winning A Title

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  1. PatsFans.com Article

    PatsFans.com Article Rookie

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    Ian's Daily Blog - One of the topics of discussion this offseason is obviously going to revolve around the lack of pass rush the Patriots have had over the last couple of seasons.They’ve definitely been in decline, with 2008 and 2009 seeing this team finish with their lowest sack totals since they won their first championship back in 2001.* [...]

  2. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good article. Obviously, I'd like to see the team get more sacks, however, I would be satisfied with seeing more QB hits next year than we did this year where, at times, it seemed like we couldn't even sniff the quarterback. Personally, I would like to see more interior pressure on the defense next season.
  3. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I expect BB agrees and I think that was part of the late round pick of Myron Pryor last year.
  4. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    i agree sacks don't all ways tell the whole story the pats had 68 QB hits as a team. it's no surprise. that TBC lead the team with 15 QB hit's some may be shocked to find that burgess, was #2 with 10 and guyton #3 with 8 QB hits



    i don't think any one would say burgess and guyton where two of the better pass rushers on the team. but they were.
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2010
  5. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    They really isn't a good statistical way to track how effective a defense was in getting pressure on the QB. Sacks are the readily available stat related to pass rush but they don't tell the story. A sack is just one of many good things a defense can accomplish by pressuring the QB. You can force a bad throw maybe an INT, force him to throw it away, force him to dump it off short on a 3rd and long, sometimes it just disrupts the offenses rythm a little bit which is big in a timing passing game, and just putting hits on the QB often effects them as the game goes on.
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2010
  6. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    I disagree with everyone on here who say sacks don't tell the whole story. They do. Teams with more sacks also get more near-sacks and more QB pressures. Last year's pass rush was dismal by any standard, whether it is by the naked or eye by their statistics.
  7. convertedpatsfan

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    Agreed. The Saints only recorded one total sack against the Cardinals and Vikings, but they knocked the QBs around quite a bit. I'd love to see more sacks, but I'd settle for having more consistent pressure applied. You're right, it really did feel we couldn't get anywhere near the QB at times.

    I'd like to see Burgess back. He seemed to really be picking things up and improving towards the end of the season. And I think a healthy Vince would go a long way towards improving the interior pass rush.
  8. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Oh you might be surprised what I'd say on the latter point. Where did you get the stats?
  9. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    Sack stats don't tell the whole story. They would tell you the Jets and Pats were dead even putting pressure on the passer. Do you agree with that?

    They'd tell you the Saints pass rush stunk in the playoffs even though they beat Warner and Favre up.

    They'd also tell you that Tom Brady wasn't pressured this year and didn't get hit at all this year since the Pats allowed just 18 sacks. Would anyone agree with that?
  10. KontradictioN

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    The 2009 New York Jets (1 more sack than the Pats) say "Hi!!!".
  11. lamafist

    lamafist Rookie

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    The problem with gauging a team's pass rush by raw sack totals is that it doesn't just measure a team's pass rush, or even just its pass defense -- it's actually primarily a measure of how many times over the season a team found itself in a high-sack-probability situation.

    The most obvious factor is that if a team is good enough in other areas to be frequently ahead by more than a score in the 4th quarter, they're going to see more pass attempts than other teams, and feel more free to "pin their ears back," as they say.

    A teams "pace" also comes into it -- depending on both offensive and defensive styles of play, some teams just pack more plays into a game than others. The San Diego defense face a league low 162 opposing drivers. The Eagles and Cardinals were both tied for 3rd most, with 193. All three were playoff teams, but the SD defense had over 30 fewer drives in which to get sacks.

    And then there are ton of even harder-to-pinpoint situational factors that play a major role in sack totals. For a variety of reasons, including shear chance, some defenses end the year having faced a greater proportion of 3rd and longs than others, thus having better sack opportunities.

    Another huge factor that rarely gets considered is the team's opponents. In the NFL, outside of one's division, teams have very different schedules. Teams like the Pats and Ravens have only two common opponents all regular season. Sometimes you get a schedule packed with Roethlisburgers, Warners, and whoever's playing behind Buffalo's o-line, and sometimes you get Mannings, Bradys, and lots of short-passing offenses. In the NFL, any statistic that doesn't try to adjust for opponent's faced is going to be relatively useless.
  12. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    ESPN has a box score of every game and it says how many QB hit the team and each play had so i add it them up. i don't how good dose stats are but i got them from ESPN.
  13. Ian

    Ian Administrator Staff Member

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    The hard part is that the NFL doesn't have QB hits and hurries available going back 10-years, which is what I pulled last night when I ran those numbers. They have far more in terms of offensive stats available (those go back to the early eighties) but on the defensive side of the football it stopped at 2001.

    I agree sacks only tell part of the story, but looking at the final two teams each year playing for the title, the numbers were interesting. As you saw in the entry it was always teams that were in the top 3rd in that category (other than the '06 Colts). So obviously success in that area makes a difference.
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2010
  14. Box_O_Rocks

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    Thanks!

    ....
  15. Box_O_Rocks

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    The next question is how much front seven pressure and how much coverage are needed to achieve the best mix?
  16. Buchanty

    Buchanty Rookie

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    The OP led me to do a little analysis which brought up an interesting view. I checked through the stats of 7 current QBs to determine what effect if any sacks might have on a QBs INT rate.

    The first table is the number of career sacks plus the annual average starting with the most sacked.

    Roethlisburger 242 sacks 40 avg
    Favre 503 sacks 26 avg
    Romo 99 sacks 24.75 avg
    Brady 219 sacks 24.3 avg
    Warner 260 sacks 21.7 avg
    Manning 215 sacks 17.9 avg
    Brees 159 sacks 17.6 avg

    While I admit there are other stats that might bring pressure to a QB (hits, hurried) sacks is a reasonable single measure of that pressure, and you might expect that the more pressure the higher the interception rate and vice versa.

    Interestingly the ratio of sacks to interceptions produced the following table of the most efficient (ie least interceptions per sack)

    Roethlisburger 242 sacks 81 ints - 33% ratio
    Brady 219 sacks 99 ints - 45% ratio
    Warner 260 sacks 128 ints - 49% ratio
    Romo 99 sacks 55 ints - 55% ratio
    Favre 503 sacks 317 ints - 63% ratio
    Brees 159 sacks 110 ints - 69% ratio
    Manning 215 sacks 181 ints - 84% ratio

    I can't make up my mind which surprises me more Big Ben's efficiency despite his hammering, or Manning's inefficiency despite his clean uniform.

    I think it is also interesting to note that the top 2 positions are both taken by cold weather QBs, while the 2 at the bottom are dome/warm weather ones.

    Just an observation
  17. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 Rookie

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    Roethlisburger, is very good at throwing out of the pocket. and he will hold the ball a lot longer. one of the reasons he has so many sacks.



    brady. and manning. are not going any were they stay in the pocket but they both get the ball out fast. the colts have a very over rated O line that can't realy run block and don't give up many sacks cause of manning. same with brady and the pats


    but when some one is in manning face blitzing he may force the ball and throw a INT brady did a lot of that this year. Roethlisburger, will run around utill some one gets open he will take a sack befor he throws a INT.
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2010
  18. mmasterkillah

    mmasterkillah Rookie

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    Defensive stats can be very misleading.

    If you get a lot of 3 and out's you may have less "pretty numbers" than a team who gives up 10 play drives on the regular.

    Rush yards per play and pass yards per play are important. Third down percentages are important. Situational success is important, not necessarily large statistics.
  19. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    I think you also have to account for how many years they've been in the league. Also most QBs tend to throw more INTs early in their career and their TD to INT ratio gets better as they gain experience. Bad OLs that don't give the QB enough time to throw may also cause them to throw more picks. The raw sack count also does not account for pressures and hits delivered that might also contribute to a pick being thrown.

    Manning is not nearly as bad as your ratio would make him out to be, he's been in the league a lot longer than Roethlisberger, and thus has had more opportunities to throw picks. I'd trust more in the TD to INT ratio per season, rather than a raw INT to Sack ratio.
  20. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    No, actually they don't. Football Outsiders did a story about this last year, and the correlation between Hits and Sacks is pretty minimal, as strange as that seems.


    There are a lot of teams that get a ton of hits every year, and not a ton of sacks, and a bunch of teams who either sack the QB, or don't get near him
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