vamp
There are many articles over in their archives on the matter. He really should have referred to the entire archive of material.
Yep. In one article in July of this year, he made reference to the NFL being a passing league as well, and used as evidence the fact that very few teams with the leading rusher win titles.
Of course, when was the last time a passing champion won a Super Bowl?
If my team throws four TD's on the first four plays and then runs the rest of the game with a lead...did "running the ball" cause me to win?
Well, did the running allow you to keep the lead? It's all part of the game. If your team passed its way down the field on those four TDs and then you ran them in from the one, did running the ball cause you to win? Or if you ran all the way down the field and then threw 1-yd TD passes, did running the ball cause you to win?
It's exceedingly difficult to say what "caused" you to win. Heck, maybe what caused you to win was the fact that you scored but your DEFENSE kept them out of the end zone, so you could say your defense caused you to win.
I just gave in my first post the actual stats for the actual champions from 1966-2011. And the trend is crystal clear: championship-winning teams pass a lot more, and to greater effectiveness, than they did years ago. Years ago they ran a lot more, and to greater effectiveness, than they do now.
That doesn't mean that passer rating differential (a favorite key stat for CHFF) is irrelevant or isn't even crucial. But it does mean that the NFL was predominantly a running league for a very, very long time and only relatively recently has become a pass-heavy league.
Mind you, even in a run-heavy league, if everyone runs the ball, the difference between a championship team and a non-contender may be how well you throw it. I mean, take two teams:
Team A: 40 rushes, 160 yds, 15 passes, 6 comp, 105 yds
Team B: 40 rushes, 160 yds, 15 passes, 9 comp, 158 yds
What Team B did with those 15 passes very well could be the difference in a game - those +3 completions leading to +53 yds may mean one more score for Team B, and thus a victory.
So it isn't like passer rating differential (passing and stopping the pass more effectively than your opponent) is irrelevant even in a run-heavy league. But that doesn't make it a "passing league". Byrne should choose different terminology.
CHFF actually has done work in a tranche, "situational football" format.
I don't have access to that...seems to be in their Insider file, which requires a paid membership.