Is Connor Barwin now a 1st round pick?

[WhiZa]

That's an interesting comment with a lot of implications. For instance, it virtually rules out a DL at #23 -- how is a Tyson Jackson or Jarron Gilbert going to contribute significantly year one behind Seymour, Warren & Green? It raises Sintim above almost every other OLB candidate (and precludes him moving in to SILB). It makes experienced safeties like Delmas and Chung good bets, even if they're questionable "value" on most boards, and puts them ahead of an athletic specimen like Sean Smith who would be changing positions. I'm not certain I agree with any of those choices.

You also have to throw in that a player picked at #23 can be a backup this year and contribute on ST while next year be a starter. Just like Meriweather (24), Maroney (21), Wilfork (21), etc. Now if we were picking at #7 again I would want that player to start right away.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You also have to throw in that a player picked at #23 can be a backup this year and contribute on ST while next year be a starter. Just like Meriweather (24), Maroney (21), Wilfork (21), etc. Now if we were picking at #7 again I would want that player to start right away.

Add Ty Warren into that, he platooned his rookie year too.

 

[bakes781]

The Pats history hasn't been taking fast risers that are highly touted coming off the combine. They generally take the guys that are unheralded(Warren) or fall into their laps(Wilfork).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'll be rather surprised if Barwin doesn't come in for a look-see between now and the draft; we know that he's talked at least with TE coach Shane Waldron.

 

[Metaphors]

That's an interesting comment with a lot of implications. For instance, it virtually rules out a DL at #23 -- how is a Tyson Jackson or Jarron Gilbert going to contribute significantly year one behind Seymour, Warren & Green? It raises Sintim above almost every other OLB candidate (and precludes him moving in to SILB). It makes experienced safeties like Delmas and Chung good bets, even if they're questionable "value" on most boards, and puts them ahead of an athletic specimen like Sean Smith who would be changing positions. I'm not certain I agree with any of those choices.

I happen to agree with BPF to a certain extent. If you look at Belichick's history of 1st round picks, it is clear that each of them were expected to get significant (eventually starter) minutes in year 1. Maroney might be the only exception, though he did get a lot of touches (dozen or so per game) even with Dillon on the roster.

Along with the inexplicable need to draft the same letter in multiple successive years (Warren/Wilfork/Watson, Mankins/Maroney/Meriweather/Mayo), I think you can draw some conclusions here. I do think that eliminates a 3-4 DL from the conversation...except for Raji if they consider him a true 3-4 NT (which are rare). I think it also eliminates QB, RB, TE, OL (unless Kaczur/Neal is being replaced). That still leaves:

WR - Not a slot guy and should be able to get open deep
ILB - Not a "2-down" guy...if that term even applies anymore
CB - My guess as to where they would like to go at #23
S - Like Meriweather, someone that can play all over the field
OLB - Lots of candidates already, but shifting to ILB/DE keeps this position in play

Obviously having extreme value drop into your pick range would be an exception to the rule (the Raji example above), but outside of the top 10 I don't see that happening. One thing I kinda disagree with BPF on is position change. It does add a risk in evaluation but that is countered to some degree by position flexibility.

As for Barwin, I can't see the Pats taking someone in the first round who hasn't demonstrated the ability to hold up in the running game. If he isn't able to set the edge and turn off-tackle plays back inside, you are looking at Steve Martin/2002 all over again. Other players over-compensate for the weak spot and the scheme starts to unravel.

 

[patchick]

The Pats history hasn't been taking fast risers that are highly touted coming off the combine. They generally take the guys that are unheralded(Warren) or fall into their laps(Wilfork).

On the flip side, Benjamin Watson & Chad Jackson. (Even Mankins, to a degree.)

EDIT: can't believe I missed the obvious -- Mayo!

 

[bakes781]

On the flip side, Benjamin Watson & Chad Jackson. (Even Mankins, to a degree.)

EDIT: can't believe I missed the obvious -- Mayo!

ok there are exceptions lol but Chad was 2nd round. Ben was a 2nd pick of the 1st and Mayo while shined at the combine was not talked about as anything higher than a late 1st.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Not for the Patriots.

I just can't see BB taking a guy who has ZERO experience at a position of immediate need in the 1st round. The fact that he was a combine freak only scares me off more because I know how other teams will over value him now.

While we're on the subject...

Which of the top DE/OLB candidates would you consider as a first round value at #23?

 

[N.Eman]

I would, i mean if this cassel thing goes for a 1st round. then you'd 2 first to try and get him. guess only time will tell. but he is a great player to have. It would be great to have him out there with Mayo and the rest of the LB's

 

[bakes781]

While we're on the subject...

Which of the top DE/OLB candidates would you consider as a first round value at #23?

in no particular order I like...

English
Ayers
Orakpo
Matthews

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

in no particular order I like...

English
Ayers
Orakpo
Matthews

Thank you, an interesting list. I'd be interested to see what these four show you that has you rating them #23 values. I ask because reviewing their profiles at NFL Draft Scout, watching them play, and evaluating their Combine scores, I'm hard pressed to see any of them as a better value than Barwin.

 

[bakes781]

Thank you, an interesting list. I'd be interested to see what these four show you that has you rating them #23 values. I ask because reviewing their profiles at NFL Draft Scout, watching them play, and evaluating their Combine scores, I'm hard pressed to see any of them as a better value than Barwin.

Well when it comes to a 1st round talent I guess I just value experience level at the position a little greater.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well when it comes to a 1st round talent I guess I just value experience level at the position a little greater.

If that's your criteria, I'm wondering about Ayers and Matthews?

 

[bakes781]

If that's your criteria, I'm wondering about Ayers and Matthews?

I like what I saw out of Ayers at the Senior Bowl. He showed a consistent motor. Clay impressed me at the combine. He looked fluid throughout the drills. Both are experienced pass rushers as well as run stuffers, but Ayers would be primarily a DE where as Clay could play outside as well as ILB.

 

[patchick]

I like what I saw out of Ayers at the Senior Bowl. He showed a consistent motor. Clay impressed me at the combine. He looked fluid throughout the drills. Both are experienced pass rushers as well as run stuffers, but Ayers would be primarily a DE where as Clay could play outside as well as ILB.

...yet Barwin had 3 times as many sacks in his 1 year on defense as Matthews had in his long, experienced career.

 

[bakes781]

...yet Barwin had 3 times as many sacks in his 1 year on defense as Matthews had in his long, experienced career.

And that's great! But I still can't see taking a "project" as my 1st round pick.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I like what I saw out of Ayers at the Senior Bowl. He showed a consistent motor. Clay impressed me at the combine. He looked fluid throughout the drills. Both are experienced pass rushers as well as run stuffers, but Ayers would be primarily a DE where as Clay could play outside as well as ILB.

You see Ayers as a 3-4 DE? If so, how does he figure into the OLB discussion?

Matthews and Barwin both get props for being Special Teams demons. Matthews didn't start until later in his Senior Year. Barwin started as a TE, then was switched to DE and won the starting job out of the gate, I'd give the edge to Barwin for experience and for talent. People who played ahead of both before they started are in the NFL, hard to say they played behind jags. I've also got to ask how Barwin who is a two year starter on both offense and defense, and a kid who saw regular playing time for the basketball team his freshman and sophomore seasons is less of a proven product than Matthews?

 

[patchick]

Barwin's funny because he's not the typical "1-year wonder" or even "1-year starter." Most of those guys (like Matthews) were laboring in obscurity until their one good year. Barwin, though, simply existed for just one year on defense -- and made a huge impact. Given that lack of experience, his 1-year production can reasonably be seen as just scratching the surface. You could even stretch matters and argue that he has less to un-learn for LB than a longtime DE. Maybe.

So I'd say he's now a reasonable 1st-round candidate, though unlikely to be the best strategic value at #23.

 

[dryheat44]

While we're on the subject...

Which of the top DE/OLB candidates would you consider as a first round value at #23?

Other than the guys expected to go Top 15, none.

I'd take Sintim at 23 before Barwin...but I'd take Barwin before anybody else at that position.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Barwin's funny because he's not the typical "1-year wonder" or even "1-year starter." Most of those guys (like Matthews) were laboring in obscurity until their one good year. Barwin, though, simply existed for just one year on defense -- and made a huge impact. Given that lack of experience, his 1-year production can reasonably be seen as just scratching the surface. You could even stretch matters and argue that he has less to un-learn for LB than a longtime DE. Maybe.

So I'd say he's now a reasonable 1st-round candidate, though unlikely to be the best strategic value at #23.

The negative is NE coaches will need to teach Barwin position basics most kids coming from college already know. Is that really a negative for NE? They crosstrain players as a matter of course. Barwin already has a fundamental base for TE and Special Teams, some of that will translate to OLB. Is he that far behind current OLB prospects Crable, Redd, Craig, and Robertson? How far behind Guyton is he? When you compare sack, TFL, QBH, and PD numbers for NE's current youngsters, Barwin blows these kids away.

From NFL Draft Scout: "Physical at the point of attack. Relentless as a pass rusher, he also hustles down the line and chases ballcarriers downfield. Good backfield awareness to knock down passes and keep contain on reverses, run plays and bootlegs. Uses his hands well to keep blockers away and shed to make tackles. Stands up on some plays -- may fit as a 3-4 rush linebacker. Very coachable because of his intelligence, work ethic and motor. A special teams ace since his freshman year; he blocked three punts in 2008."

I'll stack that up against any of the kids currently on the roster and that's why I'm willing to go #23 for kid whom I believe could be a blend of Mike Vrabel and Demarcus Ware.