Is Connor Barwin now a 1st round pick?

[patchick]

Hey, you know what's awesome about this thread? This year, we don't have the constant refrain of "Haven't you people learned ANYTHING by now? BB simply does NOT draft linebackers on day one!!!"

Bless you, Mr. Mayo.

 

[mayoclinic]

At what point have I listed any other prospect as my #1 OLB?

BOR, do you rate Barwin ahead of Everett Brown as an OLB prospect for the Pats? I'm curious as to your thoughts.

Don Banks had Brown going #25 to Miami in hist latest post-combine mock. I think he must have a brain tumor, but if by some chance Brown fell to #23, would you still take Barwin over him? I haven't been able to find any 3-cone or short shuttle times for Brown from the combine, but he weighed in at 6' 1 1/2" and 256#, ran a 4.73 40, benched 26 reps of 225 lbs., had a 31.5 verticle and a 9'6" broad jump (stronger but less explosive than Barwin). Barwin may have more athletic upside, but Brown has much more technique.

 

[VJCPatriot]

BOR, do you rate Barwin ahead of Everett Brown as an OLB prospect for the Pats? I'm curious as to your thoughts.

Don Banks had Brown going #25 to Miami in hist latest post-combine mock. I think he must have a brain tumor, but if by some chance Brown fell to #23, would you still take Barwin over him? I haven't been able to find any 3-cone or short shuttle times for Brown from the combine, but he weighed in at 6' 1 1/2" and 256#, ran a 4.73 40, benched 26 reps of 225 lbs., had a 31.5 verticle and a 9'6" broad jump (stronger but less explosive than Barwin). Barwin may have more athletic upside, but Brown has much more technique.

Here are Brown's numbers at the combine since you asked.

2009 NFL Combine: DE

Brown 6'1 1/2 256 lbs
40 4.73
3 cone DNP
Shuttle DNP
Vertical 31.5
Broad Jump 9'6
Reps 26

Compare to Barwin

Barwin 6'3 5/8 256
40 4.66
3 cone 6.87
Shuttle 4.18
Vertical 40.5
Broad Jump 10'8
Reps 21

Barwin has the edge in height and overall athleticism imo. He's well worth consideration at pick #23.
Brown's main advantage is that he is more 'proven' at the college level.

 

[zero]

As much as I like Barwin (I've been on his bandwagon for a while) if Brown is at #23 is a no brainer, I've never considered him becouse I always thought he's a top 15

 

[Seneschal2]

Originally Posted by VJCPatriot

Have you already forgotten about Mayo? The Pats are not afraid to be seen as "reaching" for a player. They drafted Branch before anyone thought they would, the same with Bethel Johnson. Mayo was considered a 2nd round pick before the combine. And even after his impressive combine I felt he was more of a mid 1st guy than a top 10 guy, but the Pats locked in on their guy and went after him after a modest trade down from #6. They might have gotten Mayo at 15 but they weren't going to risk losing THEIR guy. If Barwin is indeed their guy, the "reach" argument is inapplicable to the way the Pats conduct their drafts.

I mostly agree here, and it was a fact that both Mayo and Bethel were considered risers after the Combine and Pro Days. Mayo moved into the twenties area, while BJ moved up to the round 2-3 area. And IIRC, the Pats were w/o a 3rd-rounder when they selected Branch as the last pick in round two. Branch was also the 11th WR selected overall, and the 8th in round two. So it's entirely possible the Pats may have had their sights set on other WRs -- not just Branch.

That's undoubtedly true - if Barwin is "their guy" they will have no hesitation "reaching" for him.

The problem is that I can see 3-4 such "reaches" right now: Barwin and Delmas, possibly Alphonso and Sean Smith depending on how things sort out, maybe more. Which one do you "reach" for first? The secondary is undoubtedly a bigger area of need than OLB right now, and I could see the Pats having a very hard time choosing between Barwin and Delmas at 23.

Mayo, trust me on this one. Need is incorporated into the Pats draft board -- and is not separate. If, hypothetically, Safety, CB, and OLB, are all considered needs (by the Pats), and Barwin, Delmas, and the Smith's, are all ranked closely, than the Pats will base their selection on two primary factors: Are there other options to fill these positions later on in this draft? And assuming that each of these prospects has starting ability, which one can make an impact THIS SEASON?

IMHO however, I doubt that all are rated closely, and clearly one of the players/positions could make a difference this season, while the other will need time to develop.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, trust me on this one. Need is incorporated into the Pats draft board -- and is not separate. If, hypothetically, Safety, CB, and OLB, are all considered needs (by the Pats), and Barwin, Delmas, and the Smith's, are all ranked closely, than the Pats will base their selection on two primary factors: Are there other options to fill these positions later on in this draft? And assuming that each of these prospects has starting ability, which one can make an impact THIS SEASON?

IMHO however, I doubt that all are rated closely, and clearly one of the players/positions could make a difference this season, while the other will need time to develop.

I'm fully aware that the Pats' board is "value" based and incorporates need along with their subjective rating of a player's ability. All I'm saying is that there may be a number of players clustered very closely together at 23 right now, more so than in previous years. Undoubtedly the Pats will have a clear board by the time the draft rolls around, but the rest of us are just guessing as to exactly how it will pan out. Barwin could be above or below Delmas on their board, for example, with both available at 23 and gone by 47.

 

[mayoclinic]

Here are Brown's numbers at the combine since you asked.

2009 NFL Combine: DE

Brown 6'1 1/2 256 lbs
40 4.73
3 cone DNP
Shuttle DNP
Vertical 31.5
Broad Jump 9'6
Reps 26

I included all those numbers in my original post. The only ones I didn't include were the 3-cone and short shuttle - I wasn't sure if Brown didn't run them, or they just weren't available. But thanks for the effort.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Here are Brown's numbers at the combine since you asked.

2009 NFL Combine: DE

Brown 6'1 1/2 256 lbs
40 4.73
3 cone DNP
Shuttle DNP
Vertical 31.5
Broad Jump 9'6
Reps 26

Compare to Barwin

Barwin 6'3 5/8 256
40 4.66
3 cone 6.87
Shuttle 4.18
Vertical 40.5
Broad Jump 10'8
Reps 21

Barwin has the edge in height and overall athleticism imo. He's well worth consideration at pick #23.
Brown's main advantage is that he is more 'proven' at the college level.

I concur.

Brown had 3 starts as a Freshman with 3 sacks, 13 starts as a Sophomore with 6.5 sacks, and 13 starts and 13.5 sacks as a junior. He has experience and technique working for him.
2008 Stats: 36 TT, 21.5 TFL, 13.5 sacks, 4 FF, 3 QBH, 2 PD

Barwin has just the one year on defense as a senior, with a measly 11 sacks in 13 games to show for it. He's not noted for his technique, but his motor and athleticism.
2008 stats: 49 TT, 15.5 TFL, 11 sacks, 7 QBH, 7 PD, 3 BK

From the stats, Barwin is the more well-rounded defender.

One other little item from the Combine, Brown's arms are 33", Barwin's 33 3/4", Brown's hands are 10 1/4", Barwin's 10". Combine Barwin's height + arm length and you have 3 more inches of passing lane clutter...plus an extra 9" of vertical leap.

Right now draftniks are still reacting with pre-Combine thinking when assessing the prospects, but so much of that is often hype driven from the media. Much like the BCS rankings, a prospect takes a while to seep into the consciousness of the media and draftnik community. Barwin is playing from behind, but he wouldn't even be in the discussion if he hadn't had such an outstanding year. If the Combine did one thing, it created a standard by which to compare similar players. If Brown was a possible top five talent before the Combine, Barwin is one now.

 

[captain stone]

Here are Brown's numbers at the combine since you asked.

2009 NFL Combine: DE

Slightly OT, but I noticed that on the same page, Larry English's weight is listed as 255. I thought I heard the NFLN guys at the combine say that he weighed 272. So which is it, and does it make as big a difference as I think it might?

 

[captain stone]

Mayo, trust me on this one. Need is incorporated into the Pats draft board -- and is not separate. If, hypothetically, Safety, CB, and OLB, are all considered needs (by the Pats), and Barwin, Delmas, and the Smith's, are all ranked closely, than the Pats will base their selection on two primary factors: Are there other options to fill these positions later on in this draft? And assuming that each of these prospects has starting ability, which one can make an impact THIS SEASON?

IMHO however, I doubt that all are rated closely, and clearly one of the players/positions could make a difference this season, while the other will need time to develop.

This is a very, very critical question.

Given the history of Safeties generally lasting later into the draft, and given the depth at that position this year, I would be very disappointed if the FO chose (another) Safety in the 1st round if there were still 1st-round-caliber talent available at OLB & CB; esp. CB, as in Darius Butler & Sean Smith.