If you didn't notice - Wes Welker....another double-digit reception game

[MoLewisrocks]

Im simply worried that locking up Wes leaves us with nothing for the rest of the team.

We desperately need a deep physical receiver. It's how you beat the Giants 49ers of this world as we saw yesterday. Can we rely on a rookie? Probably not.

Been there, done that, didn't work. Can we rely on a FA to perform they way one would have to in this system? Hasn't happened to date. And can we keep Brady upright long enough to reach one consistently or when it matters? Hasn't happened to date.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Ivan, your unmitigated love affair with Wes Welker is well documented. I'm sure if you had the power, you would simply trot out a blank check and have him put in what ever numbers he wants regardless of the consequences to the rest of the team. You don't have to post a response to everyone who doesn't feel the same as you.

I'm sure you feel his contribution is irreplaceable. Just like everyone thought Gronk was irreplaceable. . The fact is that this offense will survive and flourish missing a single part or two. Would we be better WITH Gronk than without him. Of course we would. Yet without him we won 4 of 5 games and the only one we lost we scored 34 points

Tom Brady is the only irreplaceable part of this offense at this point, and even when he was gone for a year the offense was very productive (5th best in the NFL that year). Has anyone ever considered that this team and organization has something to do with a players' production. Look at what happened to players like Branch and Cassell after they left.

You miss the point completely. NO ONE wants Wes Welker to leave. NO ONE! But...there is a point, a price point, where keeping him will do more damage to the rest of the team, than the value he brings to the field. Even you have to acknowledge this. You and I can speculate what this number is. The Pats front office KNOWS it.

I would just wish you would recognize that whatever they pay Welker will have an effect on what they can do or not do in many other areas of the team. No player is signed in a vacuum. For every dollar that is given to Welker their is one less dollar for everyone else. THAT's a fact.

Same fact applies to every contract, ken, including guys like Mankins and Mayo and Gronk and Hernandez and whomever else you want them to invest heavily in. Not to mention several they wildly miscalculated on lately like Ocho and Fanene and Shiancoe, etc. ad nauseum. Over $21M in dead cap in 2012...more than enough to have paid Welker's guaranteed money or covered Welker's unguaranteed salary for 4 more years.

 

[satz]

1)Blaming the CAP for not signing wes is truely wrong. this year he counts 10-11 million i think to the cap. we are still under the cap which will be carried over to next year or lost. In theory they could have given him the money and signed him long term.

2)He even showed up for training camp and was a full go. If the pats do not do anything i think the whole patriots way can be flushed down as its a statement that there is nothing like that and its a business concept.

3)Years we were told he is not elite and brady makes him good, the last year with dolphins he caught 70 catches with 3 different crappy qb`s and here he did have a 100 catches with matt cassell. It will be funny with dolphins get him and we can watch kyle arrington in the slot against wes .

4) Only other slot guy he compares to is strokley who is productive at 38 yrs in denver. For most of the season and even now he is peyton goto guy in 3rd down . Denver would love to replace him with a young 32yr old wes next year. Give peyton the goto inside guy who can play more as he is younger and be productive for his career. I am sure koppen will put in a good word for him.

 

[Ivan]

He's already beating that drum. Expects Brady to take a bargain deal to facilitate teambuilding (translation allowing them to ink top tier deals with others).

It really seems like many patriot fans have internalized the salary cap to a point where they think they are paying the bills. Every player has to take a team friendly deal or less than a fair market deal or they are somehow violating the Patriot way and impeding them from being competitive going forward. Ultimately it is professional sports and it is a business, and one in which the players really sacrifice their health in ways that do long term damage both physically and mentally, and they deserve to be paid fair market deals for their services. That in no way means teams should not be really smart about their dealings and careful in their decisions, but they should still recognize real value when it exists and compensate players properly for their value. Paying Mario Williams 120 million would have been folly, and that bore out this season, whereas paying Welker last offseason made a ton of sense and they really screwed up by not doing so, which was reflected in your post on this subject. And finally there are some players that I consider "special" in terms of this franchise and its success. Without citing them all i will cite a few, some of whom were willing to take less to stay with the patriots, and others who want and deserve to be paid market value, and the Patriots did so, but all of them 'special" in terms of this team and all will end up in the Patriots HOF if not the HOF itself. Bruschi and Faulk are good examples of the first scenario, great Patriot players who took less than market value simply to stay in NE, and while it was exceptionally gracious of them to do so they apparently set a standard that patriot fans now believe all players should abide by, which is completely unreasonable. Brady and Wilfork are examples of the other scenario, HOF quality players who want and expected to be paid like the best players in the league, although neither went completely overboard and both ended up with good deals for both parties. Imo Welker is actually much closer to Bruschi and Faulk however his play and production is so far off the charts that his market value is close to ridiculous, which is what the CJ and Fitzgerald contracts both are, and while he wants to be paid fairly he is probably looking for far less than those deals. I really believe Welker would take a fraction of that, which is what 4-36 or 4-40 really is, and he is well worth those deals. Unfortunately the Patriots apparently came in so far below market value or a reasonable offering that a deal could not be reached, and they used the tag in a way it really should never be used, to block a player from any chance at a open market deal while not offering any kind of fair deal. Hopefully this situation can be ironed out this offseason because i have never seen the Patriots act so penny wise pound foolish as they are with this situation. As i said before this is the last 1/4 of the Brady era and the entire focus should be winning championships, not cap frugality, and getting rid of Brady's most productive and most reliable target just as their defense is finally reaching a point where it can help them win Lombardi's as as crazy as it gets. Re-sign Welker and add a deep threat. Lloyd helps outside the hashmarks and Edelman might be able to help some if they decide to bring him back.


Merry Christmas everyone, re-sign Welker, there would be no better present for Patriot fans than that, and another Lombardi.

 

[patfanken]

Ken, your unmitigated disdain for Welker and his abilities and contributions to this team are well documented, i'm sure if you could you would pay him minimum wage so you could give Julian Edelman 8 million a year to "easily replace" him. You really don't have to join into every Welker thread 95% of which are callikng for them to get rid of him.

Here's where your obsession has crossed the line to delusion, and its become clear that any further discussion with you has become impossible, because now you are just making it up as you go along. for I have never said any of the above. But thanks for coming.

So Ivan here is a bottle of hand lotion and all the Wes Welker pictures that the internet can provide, and I leave you to your business. Enjoy.

 

[Ivan]

Here's where your obsession has crossed the line to delusion, and its become clear that any further discussion with you has become impossible, because now you are just making it up as you go along. for I have never said any of the above. But thanks for coming.

So Ivan here is a bottle of hand lotion and all the Wes Welker pictures that the internet can provide, and I leave you to your business. Enjoy.

Ken, you can keep the hand lotion, you need it to re-run the 3-4 Edelman highlights from this season. As for accuracy I see no difference between what you posted saying I would give Welker a blank check and my statement that you would pay Edelman 8 million a year. and what is delusional Ken is rating the importance of saving 2-3 million over winning Lombardi's which they are poised to do, and to which dumping Welker for the sake of cap frugality would be crazy stupid.

 

[patfanken]

Cap #'s are an accounting tool. They are fielding a unit that cost them almost $20M in AAV this season (including the myriad of backups they command) and the kids got $20M in signing bonus alone. They are guaranteed between them $34.4M in the first 3. Going forward their AAV alone tops $13M per and exceeds the current tag price for the position.

You are not joining Felger's "the cap is crap" society are you, Mo? I'm not sure what this paragraph means, since I have to confess not knowing what AVV means and hope you'll enlighten me.

I do know that the Pats gave the 2 TE's $20MM in signing bonuses. And I know at least for my part of the discussion what is guaranteed and what's paid up front doesn't have a whole lot to do with the issue. While the cap #, no matter how artificial you THINK it is, is the critical factor.....at least of for the next 2-4 years.

And while I'm no "expert" on the cap, by any means, I do know that at $6MM, and $10MM Gronk and Hernandez's combined cap number is very reasonable for the next 2 years. In fact, while it grows, it remains fairly reasonable for the first 4 years of their contracts, as I understand it. It isn't until the 2016 season or later that roster bonus' etc, escalate their cap numbers into the 8 figure area.

Past production is a big part of how you gauge future performance. Bill has a saying about what potential is, something you have yet to achieve... We've seen twice as Lloyd pointed out in his own defense what happens when Josh runs a perimeter oriented version of this offense. He isn't going to run that here by simple virtue of the $$$ recently invested at the TE position.

And why should he. He has 2 TE's who accumulated 2000 yds and 24 TDs. How many WR pairings averaged 1000 yds in the league? Think about it the Pats had 3 1000 yd receivers. When has that ever happened?

Picture this offense going forward as is absent Welker and you're looking at a 4th seed by default (only because the other three won't get it right enough to challenge for the division anytime soon). Gronk's deal made sense given his buzz and the built in out. Hernandez deal at this juncture doesn't. Imagine what they could have signed him for coming off his third season. Could have saved enough in AAV, cap and cash to extend Woodhead for 2-3 more years...

This make sense, Mo, if you knew in advance that Hernandez would miss 8 games due to injury and be limited in the 7 he played in. Yeah if the Pats knew in advance that THIS would be his season, I image they would have been able to resign him to a more favorable deal. But they resigned him after a season he had nearly 1000 yds receiving as the 3rd option. Where he had proven to be the most versatile bad match up in the league. A guy who can line up a TE, WR, slot receiver, and RB. A guy who was universally thought to be ready to have a huge break out year THIS season (as if 910 yds, 7TD's as the 2nd TE wasn't a break out year already)

Gronk is the best all round TE in the league and the 2nd best player on the team. Of that there is no doubt. But many believe that Hernandez is a unique talent that can be a "defense breaker" The guy that will drive a DC crazy because of the myriad ways that Josh can deploy him. Alone he's a tough stop. With Gronk, its almost impossible. With Gronk AND Welker AND Lloyd it IS impossible.

They could have signed Welker to a 4 year $36M+ deal with $18-20M guaranteed and had the exact same cap hit this season and been in position to squeeze him on remaining unguaranteed salary beginning in 2014 with manageable dead cap if they came to an impass by 2015 when the cap will rise substantially.

First, how do you know that THIS was the deal Welker wanted? But lets assume it was. We know for a fact the Pats offered him $16MM guaranteed for 2 years and he rejected it. Why would he accept your deal regardless of the length, if it only offered 2 more million in guarantees?

Secondly why are you so sure that the cap is going get a significant bump in 2015? Just curious.

Now they are looking at paying him $11.4M in cash and cap in 2013 (a total of $21M guaranteed) or 3 times $9-10M with half of it guaranteed ($25M over the same term guaranteed) or walking away from a 32 year old guy who moves the chains and has Brady's back come what may. And he's done that consistently for 6 seasons. No one else not named Brady has done anything nearly that consistently even in the last three seasons. And that includes guys on both sides of the ball (and in all 3 phases of the game...) have been signed to top of the market deals.

I've never said that Welker doesn't deserve a top of the Market deal based on his stellar past performance. All I have done is question whether paying him what he as earned is in the best interests to the Patriots as a team. I have questioned the CONSEQUENCES of giving him that kind of a contract.

As to the 11.4MM franchise money, I don't think that's going to happen, though Welker would probably be thrilled with it. The Pats are not going to carry that kind of money on next year's cap, given the other contracts they need to do (ie Talib, Volmer, Brady etc). If we are free to speculate, the best deal Welker is likely to see is 4 yrs (to spread the pain) $32MM and $18 guaranteed, with a $10MM signing bonus. That's just my guess.....And I hope they get it done.

But if it doesn't and Welker walks, I doubt very much the offense would diminish. Just look at how it flourished this year, despite not have one of the 2 key TE's for the entire year, and none of the back ups working out as expected and the lost of Edelman. It certainly would be easier WITH Welker, but it wouldn't be impossible without him, though we won't know for sure until he's gone.

BTW- I think you made a point about the 21MM in dead cap money the team has managed to run up because of bad deals with Ocho, Fenene, etc. I thought it was well stated. I can't defend those deals of course, except to say, not every deal works out, and the Pats are not exceptions to that rule. But like it or not that dead money has to be a consideration in deals going forward. Yes it would have been easier to sign Welker if that dead money wasn't there, but its a reality. (btw- do you know what's going to be next season?)

And although this certainly will not be the last thread on this topic, and although we are on different sides of the issue to some degree (we both hope Welker will be resigned), I appreciate you keeping it a well reasoned discussion, as opposed to a argumentative rant.

 

[patfanken]

Cap #'s are an accounting tool. They are fielding a unit that cost them almost $20M in AAV this season (including the myriad of backups they command) and the kids got $20M in signing bonus alone. They are guaranteed between them $34.4M in the first 3. Going forward their AAV alone tops $13M per and exceeds the current tag price for the position.

Past production is a big part of how you gauge future performance. Bill has a saying about what potential is, something you have yet to achieve... We've seen twice as Lloyd pointed out in his own defense what happens when Josh runs a perimeter oriented version of this offense. He isn't going to run that here by simple virtue of the $$$ recently invested at the TE position.

Picture this offense going forward as is absent Welker and you're looking at a 4th seed by default (only because the other three won't get it right enough to challenge for the division anytime soon). Gronk's deal made sense given his buzz and the built in out. Hernandez deal at this juncture doesn't. Imagine what they could have signed him for coming off his third season. Could have saved enough in AAV, cap and cash to extend Woodhead for 2-3 more years...

They could have signed Welker to a 4 year $36M+ deal with $18-20M guaranteed and had the exact same cap hit this season and been in position to squeeze him on remaining unguaranteed salary beginning in 2014 with manageable dead cap if they came to an impass by 2015 when the cap will rise substantially. Now they are looking at paying him $11.4M in cash and cap in 2013 (a total of $21M guaranteed) or 3 times $9-10M with half of it guaranteed ($25M over the same term guaranteed) or walking away from a 32 year old guy who moves the chains and has Brady's back come what may. And he's done that consistently for 6 seasons. No one else not named Brady has done anything nearly that consistently even in the last three seasons. And that includes guys on both sides of the ball (and in all 3 phases of the game...) have been signed to top of the market deals.

Ken, you can keep the hand lotion, you need it to re-run the 3-4 Edelman highlights from this season. As for accuracy I see no difference between what you posted saying I would give Welker a blank check and my statement that you would pay Edelman 8 million a year. and what is delusional Ken is rating the importance of saving 2-3 million over winning Lombardi's which they are poised to do, and to which dumping Welker for the sake of cap frugality would be crazy stupid.

When you find me the post where I said the Pats should pay Edelman $8MM/yr, I will take you seriously enough to respond to, until then.....bye bye

 

[VJCPatriot]

I hope we can keep Welker but the highest we would go is a Moss type of deal. 3/27. I'm hoping it can get done for less.

 

[BananaRepublican]

The truth is that Brady has about 3-4 more years left to win them their championships for the Brady/Belichick era,

I don't believe in that theory. I believe in the theory that they are planning to lock-and-load once again when Brady leaves. They are built, and they are building for the future at all times. They won't jeopardize that future for anybody.

Think about it: Did they quit in '08?

Just think about it: Does a successful enterprise only plan on staying successful while one talented member is not retired?

In my own meager football brain I expect them to morph when Brady leaves. They will morph into whatever kind of team gives them the best chance to win. I expect that to be a sort of Alex Smith Niners team. They will not plan on mediocrity.

So the effect of that kind of thinking dictates that Wes or anybody else is going to be subjected to financial constraints because this team's "window" is wide open as far as the horizon. It isn't this mythical 3-4 years that some people believe is inevitable.

 

[Ivan]

When you find me the post where I said the Pats should pay Edelman $8MM/yr, I will take you seriously enough to respond to, until then.....bye bye

When you find the post where i said to give Welker a blank check let me know, until then i will just continue to use your comment that Edelman can "easily replace" Welker as proof you don't know what you are talking about.


BTW-let me know when Edelman starts breaking Jerry Rice's records Ken, shouldn't be too long a wait.

 

[BananaRepublican]

Bruschi and Faulk are good examples of the first scenario, great Patriot players who took less than market value simply to stay in NE,

They were also smart enough to realize how terrible their individual careers were going to be if they were not utilized correctly, and that nobody would be better than Bill to maximize their talents. That was not all some altruistic generosity on their part.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

They were also smart enough to realize how terrible their individual careers were going to be if they were not utilized correctly, and that nobody would be better than Bill to maximize their talents. That was not all some altruistic generosity on their part.

They also had kids; and for some people that weighs in heavily on their decision -- ie more money that doesn't affect your lifestyle isn't worth disrupting your child's lives.

Welker doesn't have kids, so I can see him going to the highest bidder. I can also see him saying 'I'm comfortable here, my wife is comfortable here, and it gives me the best chance of getting into the hall of fame'.

We won't know what he truly desires (comfort vs money) until the offseason. But given he didn't attempt to holdout / delay signing; I'm guessing he'll take a Pats offer if its within 1-2mil/year of the highest bidder.

 

[Ivan]

Hopefully in 5 years we can look back and say "well, they couldn't keep Welker and never won another Lombardi, but they were able to pay Jackie Slater...................................."

 

[Ivan]

They were also smart enough to realize how terrible their individual careers were going to be if they were not utilized correctly, and that nobody would be better than Bill to maximize their talents. That was not all some altruistic generosity on their part.

All of those I named would have been very successful elsewhere, they weren't beholden to NE for their success, and all of them received offers much closer to their actual value than that offered Welker. I guarantee both Brady and Wilfork are gone if the Patriots ever try to pull this on them, and I'll also guarantee that Welker is going to make the Patriots really regret any decision to let him go, and that he will be really successful in Denver, or Houston, or Green bay, or Indy..........


The next 4 years could be a great stretch run for the Brady era, and getting rid of his best target makes no sense at all.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Welker doesn't have kids, so I can see him going to the highest bidder. I can also see him saying 'I'm comfortable here, my wife is comfortable here, and it gives me the best chance of getting into the hall of fame'.

Except that supposedly when Welker was a Dolphin playing the Pats, he was pining on the sidelines wishing he could play for a team like New England.

I can't see him simply following the $$ if that means going to a team that isn'[t close to contending.